3rd part (last war and the role of Turkey, Russia, Israel, Iran and the West)
The attempted coup in Turkey on July 15, 2016 was a golden opportunity for Erdogan to purge his army and the country’s judicial and administrative body and instill in the people a more nationalistic and expansionist spirit than ever, which almost coincides with the recovery of the Ottoman empire, the so-called Neo-Ottomanism.
Despite an economy that is going from bad to worse, Turkey has long spared military spending by expanding its military presence in countries such as Syria, Libya, Iraq, Somalia, Qatar, Pakistan, Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo. At the same time it claims a vast maritime area called the Blue Homeland that includes half the Mediterranean, half Aegean and half the Black Sea. In this way it aims to achieve two things. Diversion of public opinion from poverty and energy independence that will allow you to play the role you dream of.
In 2019 Turkey and Azerbaijan signed the construction of the TANAP gas pipeline, thus opening a new path between their traditional suppliers Russia and Iran. Simultaneously, Azerbaijan became one of the best clients of the emerging Turkish military industry. Suddenly Azerbaijan acquired its own missile launchers, laser weapons or drones.
Of course, the Azerbaijani army was not supplied only with Turkish weapons, but also with Russian, Israeli, etc, although Turkey offered something that could make a huge difference. Something that he achieved by filling the gap left by the US after the passage from the Obama presidency to that of Trump, which decided to follow a much more introverted policy that contemplated the withdrawal of American troops from various parts of the world.
The CIA had for years provided first-class weapons and military training to the Syrian rebels, who had risen up against the Syrian leader. Asad, who were left without support or instructors overnight. Turkey seized the opportunity and suddenly, with a salary of at most $ 2000 and a Turkish passport per person, he obtained an army of mercenaries at his service that was called the “National Army”. These mercenaries, who practically became loyal employees of Turkey, were used on various occasions, as for example in Libya, or in our own case, in the war in the Caucasus. This solved the problem of training difference between Armenians and Azeris.
So someone would wonder what kind of hopes I would have Armenia against a much richer and more armed state and, as if that were not enough, with the unconditional support of Turkey. Could it be that there is someone willing to support Armenia? Let’s take a look at the role of others.
Iran has played a very ambiguous role, fearing that the war will splatter its own province of the same name. So he deployed a tank regiment along the border and made careful movements to maintain a balance. At times he ceded areas as an intermediate base of arms transport from Russia to Armenia, but at the same time he made declarations in favor of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Here it should be noted that Aliyev it acted intelligently, ignoring the concession of the intermediate bases and extolling the “excellent relations” with Iran.Israel he has played the role, perhaps more mysterious in this case. At least theoretically Jews and Armenians should be soul mates as both peoples reached the brink of extinction. The truth is that Armenia tried, but Israel’s reaction was not what was expected. To get started, never recognized the Armenian genocide, something that, ostensibly, sounds at least absurd. Furthermore, he always showed a certain hesitation to the point that Armenia managed to open an embassy in Tel Aviv after several years of negotiations. Meanwhile, the fact that Israel never took care of opening an embassy in Yerevan, but limited itself to managing its relations with Armenia from its embassy in Georgia is also very indicative of its intentions. Obviously the power and wealth of the perpetrator of the genocide, Turkey and his little brother Azerbaijan, were much more attractive to Israel.
That sounds like sentimental people who do not know how geopolitical relationships work from mad to unforgivable sin. It is as if Armenia supports Germany in an effort to eliminate the Jews again. To make matters worse, the Armenians, angry and literally petrified at finding that the Azeris were using Israeli drones, withdrew their ambassador from Tel Aviv seething with fury. What an irony … a people who had almost been eliminated by the Nazis have assumed their role in their coexistence with the Palestinians and are now supporting the mortal enemies of their “soul mate” … the flags of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel flying together in the celebrations in Baku are indisputable evidence …
Of course, someone could argue that Israel is afraid of the intimate strategic, economic (tourist and commercial) and energy relationship between Armenia and Iran, as Iran is its current mortal enemy, which promotes the idea of the elimination of the state of Israel and denial of the holocaust. Such fear is heightened when one takes into account Iran’s persistent effort to obtain nuclear capability, along with its clandestine uranium enrichment programs.
Speaking of Iran, we are gradually getting closer to the most plausible explanation for Israel’s position in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Having an ally like Azerbaijan translates into having solid ground right behind the back of your greatest enemy, which, if combined with a spread of an anti-Iranian spirit within the Iranian province of Azerbaijan, would theoretically result in eventual triumph. Israeli over his current mortal enemy. However, Aliyev seems too smart to fall for such traps. In addition, for the moment it has quite a few very expensive concerns, such as the restructuring of the newly won territories.
As for Europe or the US, one really does not know where to start. The tremendous Armenian diaspora and the propaganda it carries out, along with facts such as the religious affinity and empathy that the history full of Armenian pain and suffering instills in anyone, seems to have produced nothing positive except statements of sympathy and some demonstrations in the streets of some western cities. According to international law, Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan and, apart from that, Azerbaijani oil and gas are of the utmost importance for Europe, which is looking for alternative ways to gain independence from Russian gas.
Very few took a clear position in practice, like Canada that applied an arms embargo to Turkey and Azerbaijan immediately. On the contrary, there have been countries that simply took advantage of the situation, such as Italy. The Italian company Ansaldo Energia closed an agreement that contemplated the construction of electric power production units with the Azeri company Azerenerji just after the war ended. In short, when the Italian company came to Azerbaijan to do business, the victims’ blood had barely dried.
So gradually we came to the only country that could play the role of the guardian angel for Armenia, Russia.
Russia, to begin with, has a 3,000-strong military base in Gyumri. In addition, Armenia is part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, that is, something like Russian NATO, or the descendant of the Warsaw Treaty. Its regulations provide that in the event of aggression against a former Soviet republic, Russia will be forced to come to its defense.
However, Nagorno Karabakh is officially part of Azerbaijan, so technically, Azerbaijan has not invaded any country, but is simply trying to recover its belongings. But of course that is nothing more than a pretext behind which hides the economic relationship that Russia has established with the “most coveted bride”, that is, with the greatest dowry, in our history. Russia and Azerbaijan need each other and apart from that Russia would not want to disturb its predominantly Muslim regions like Chechnya or Dagestan which are right next door.
Other than all that, there has been a pretty personal problem as well. The current Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinián it emerged on the political scene after a veritable flood of former communist Russian oligarchs and their Armenian puppets who plunged the country into corruption and poverty. Pashinián appeared incorruptible and insisted on expanding his international contacts by beginning negotiations with the West as well. The latter could result in the presence of NATO or the EU in Russia’s own backyard. The establishment of the oligarchs and his own leader Putin did not forgive him, so at the most critical moment he chose to abstain and wait until Azerbaijan, with the support of Ankara, regained the entire area between Karabakh and Armenia.
It was only when Azerbaijan began to “bite” parts of Karabakh itself, conquering Sushi and reaching just 11 km from the defenseless Stepanakert, and, as calculated, when Pashinian knelt to Moscow asking for its mercy did it decide to act in a dynamic way.
He sat both sides to sign, not just a truce, but a viable ceasefire and introduced more peacekeeping forces, thus assuming full control of the entire region after nearly 30 years, while preventing Turkish forces from entering and To top it all, he gave an unforgettable lesson to the Armenian leader who had had the gall to take initiatives without first consulting them … an exemplary lesson for all future leaders of a country that dared to act as if it were more than just a former Soviet protectorate in the backyard of Russia.
In short, I just wanted to reiterate that a people that appeared in the area in ancient times, that is much earlier than its main rival, whose prosperity, by the way, serves only the most expansionist and revisionist power in the neighborhood, which was accused of claiming foreign territories despite its unquestionable demographic superiority while Nakhichevan had been stolen from him after the cruel annihilation of its population, a fact that constitutes only a small part of the holocaust suffered at Turkish and Kurdish hands after German directives, it ended up being abandoned by all, be it by Christian nations, whether by nations of another confession but with a common past and suffering… a people that a century ago survived by pure chance and miraculously is still alive, although they have just faced one more mortal threat, practically by the very person in the last crime.
Just think about that … if Germany dared to attack Israel, the stones would still be raised to protest, but of course that would never happen, especially because of the collective guilt that has been instilled in the new German generations who are fully aware of what your ancestors have committed; In contrast, the new Turkish generations, apart from not recognizing the genocide, do not hesitate to repeat the crime, just like the prisoner who always returns to the scene of the crime, even after a whole century …