After an ideal autumn for the outdoors, what will winter be like when you have to avoid closed places

April was dominated by a semi-parked circulation pattern that favored blocking conditions and generated persistent milder temperatures than normal. At the country level, it was positioned as the third warmest since 1961.

These weather conditions facilitated the development of outdoor activities to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. But the arrival of the first colds will reverse the equation. The Buenos Aires health minister, Fernán Quirós, has already warned when he asked that care and protocols be maintained in closed spaces. “Temperatures have a negative impact on curves because when they are low, people tend to find themselves more in heated and unventilated places, “he told this newspaper.

The beginning of a winter with the usual cold. The quarterly climate forecast of the meteorological service (SMN) foresees a greater probability of occurrence of average temperatures (an average between the minimum and maximum that is calculated by averaging temperatures in four main times: 3, 9, 15, 21) during May, June and July. In the central area of ​​the country, the average temperature ranges between 8 and 10 degrees.

Meteorologist Nadia Zyncenko explains that the parameter is obtained from the sum of the value of the temperatures taken during the day, week or month divided by the amount of time. For example, in May the mean in the City of Buenos Aires is 14.6 ° C, the mean maximum, 19.3, and the mean minimum, 10.7.

So what will happen to the temperatures? According to the report, there are likely a warmer trimester than normal over the provinces of Patagonia; while conditions between normal and colder than usual are favored over the Cuyo region. In the rest of central and northern Argentina, a quarter with temperatures is expected within the usual range.

However, specialists consulted suggest staying informed with the forecasts of a smaller scale, daily and weekly, and through the early warning and warning system for adverse phenomena. Why? Although the report represents a very useful tool for decision-making in the medium and long term, it does not provide details on the meteorological conditions of a given day nor does it contemplate singularities of events on a sub-seasonal scale, such as waves of heat or cold, heavy rains or severe storms, all of them of short duration.

What trend is expected for the next few months? After a very warm april and with great variability of rainfall, the first days of May will have more autumnal conditions. In the center and north of the country, the trend is for a normal quarter with forcing oscillations of the synoptic scale or sub-seasonal. This means that there may be cold air inlet in a variable way, not persistent.

“The precipitation forecast indicates greater chances of registering a quarter normal or drier than usual on the north of the Litoral, east of Buenos Aires and north-central Patagonia. Rains within the range are more likely in the northern and central provinces, southern Litoral, Mendoza and southern Patagonia. Regarding the rest of the NOA, a quarter between normal to rainier than usual is more likely ”, indicates José Luis Stella, climatologist of the National Meteorological Service, and recommends paying greater attention to intra-seasonal variability.

The neutral girl

The girl it persisted during the summer due to the interaction between the Equatorial Pacific and the atmosphere, which caused less rain in the Humid Pampa and the Litoral. But, in the course of April it finished weakening, and consequently, The signal of a phenomenon on a global scale for the entire quarter was turned off.

“This event generates uncertainty about the predictable meteorological conditions for the next three months, since the temperatures of the Equatorial Pacific will be within normal. The girl no longer has an impact because we are in neutral conditions. What happened in April was something sub-seasonal, ”explains Stella.

And he adds: “The confusion is greater because the signals are not as strong as those of last year, when it was possible to predict with Greater precision the average behavior of the atmosphere ”.



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