Although SSa reported more than 100,000 deaths from COVID-19, the true number could exceed 260,000: this is why

This November 19, 100,104 deaths from COVID-19 were registered in Mexico (Photo: REUTERS / Edgard Garrido)

This day the Ministry of Health (SSa), reported that until this November 14 100,104 deaths have been recorded, but nevertheless, the actual figure is estimated to be greater than 260,000.

In accordance with Political Animal there is close to 160,000 deaths of which “the causes are not yet known”. In some cases, it corresponds to patients who perished at home because they did not reach the hospital, they were not due to mistrust or because they did not find a bed available.

The media points out that these cases are called “excess mortality”And serve to measure the impact of the pandemic, based on official data.

This occurs when an extraordinary event occurs in a country or region such as a war or a contagious lethal disease, such as that caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Therefore, the “excess mortality” figure can be seen by comparing the average annual deaths with the excess.

The “excess mortality” would serve to measure the impact of the pandemic (Photo: REUTERS / Edgard Garrido)

The “excess mortality” would serve to measure the impact of the pandemic (Photo: REUTERS / Edgard Garrido)

That way, For every official death from COVID-19, there would be 2.6 unaccounted for. According to the media, this proportion has been maintained on a monthly basis, even when the records by entity have presented different deaths.

This would explain that the number of deaths is more than double currently recorded. By maintaining the factor of 2.6 deaths for each officially registered, the figure would be higher than 260,000 deaths.

However, in the SSa page dedicated to coronavirus, points out that the excess mortality recorded up to week 41 (we are currently in week 45) of the pandemic is 203,231.

In the particular case of Mexico City, the official data point out that until October 15 there was 1,654 excess deaths, that is, in the first fortnight of that month there were on average 111 deaths daily corresponding to that item.

The excess mortality recorded only reaches week 41 (Photo: EFE / Miguel Sierra)

The excess mortality recorded only reaches week 41 (Photo: EFE / Miguel Sierra)

“In the period between October 1 and 15, a total of 4,007 death certificates were recorded for residents of Mexico City. During this period, there was an excess of mortality of 1,654 deaths in addition to those expected from the calculation of previous years, ”said the local government report.

Meanwhile, the SSa, noted in its report of this November 19 that of the 100,104 total deaths recorded from COVID-19: there are 96,216 confirmed deaths to SARS-CoV-2 by laboratory; and that deaths by association or clinical-epidemiological opinion were 3,888.

Furthermore, the agency only estimates 15,483 suspicious deaths of coronavirus that include the pending by laboratory (2,694) and those that are in the process of association, clinical – epidemiological opinion (12,789) in SISVER. This figure is lower since it does not account for excess mortality.

The agency only estimates 15,483 suspicious deaths (Photo: REUTERS / Edgard Garrido)

The agency only estimates 15,483 suspicious deaths (Photo: REUTERS / Edgard Garrido)

Likewise, it points out that the distribution by sex in confirmed deaths shows a 64% predominance in men. The median age of deaths is 64 years.

It should be remembered that recently the Undersecretary of Prevention and Health Promotion, Hugo López-Gatell, He called not to politicize the pandemic and regretted that the media are focused on the “yellow perspective”.

“The epidemic is terrible in itself, do not add drama to it. Putting statistics on the front pages as it seems to me that it does not help too much, ”said the epidemiologist.

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