Amateurs Talk About British Mutants Only with Data-More Access! More Fun

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Today, let’s learn how to view data and how to make hypotheses derived from it.
Experts will talk about how receptors work and whether vaccines work or not, but since I am an amateur, I will only talk about statistics and data.

Current situation in England

First of all, in the UK, the infection has subsided and the number of deaths has dropped sharply.

Vaccine proponents, Kula, praise the cases of Israel and the United Kingdom as vaccine effects. However, as I wrote before, Israel has finally converged because all the surrounding nations have been converging, but only one country has expanded. So I don’t know if it’s a wave or a vaccine effect.
Associate Professor Igarashi of the University of Tokyo explains.

Israeli insurer (Clalit) data-Vaccine effect of 1.18 million people

First of all, Israel is also vaccinated mainly in high-risk groups such as the elderly. In other words, among vaccinated and non-vaccinated people, young people are the main non-vaccinated people. As in Japan, young people move around and are susceptible to infection. So a simple comparison between those who have been vaccinated and those who have not been vaccinated is not good. Naturally, the younger group who did not get infected is more likely to get infected. This is corrected and calculated.

The infection prevention effect was 29% 14-20 days after the second vaccination and 90% after the 7th day of the second vaccination. However, it is thought that this is because the vaccine itself has an infection-preventing effect, or because the number of people who develop the disease in the group to which it belongs decreases, the virus does not spread as a result, and the infection has decreased.

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However, the infection is spreading in Chile and the Maldives, which have a vaccination rate that surpasses Israel.

The Chilean vaccine, which spreads the infection even though it is the best inoculation in the world, is a distant cause?

Isn’t the vaccine made in China useful for preventing infection? w

The effective rate of vaccines made in China seems to be about 50% in Brazil. w And Chile is less vaccinated twice.

The story is a little off, but the source of the mutant strain, the United Kingdom, has already converged. In other words, because it is a mutant strain, it will not increase exponentially forever, but will converge properly.

Is the spread of infection in Kansai a British stock?

Osaka Prefecture is disclosing information, so start here.

4/6 News

It doesn’t say how much 30 was found by the genome test of the mutant species …

There was another document.

Looking at this, the ratio of mutant strains is steadily increasing.

It was 66.5% at the end of March, so I think most of them are British mutants now.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government does not always announce the number of mutation surveys, but only the number found, so it is not useful. I don’t think Koike has analyzed it. Absolute numbers don’t mean anything.
I finally found you.

From 3/29 to 4/3, the number of inspections is 460. Of these, 69 are mutant strains, so 15%. It is much lower than Osaka.

By now, it has been found that the spread of infection in Osaka seems to be a British mutant strain.
There is no graph throughout the year in Osaka prefecture, but from this year …

You can see that the angle is the steepest so far.

What about the case fatality rate of British mutants?

Osaka discloses the number of deaths of mutant strains. The table above.
It is 0.5% because it is 5 out of 927 people.

This is

Same as the case fatality rate in Tokyo. At least not expensive. By the way, the case fatality rate in Osaka is 133/7231, which is 1.8% when it is set from November 1st to December 8th in line with Tokyo. It is considerably higher than the national average, and I think it is because the infection in the facility for the elderly exploded.
Since 0.5% of the mutant strains have a time lag, the number of deaths will increase from now on, but even so, it seems that the mutant strains do not have a high case fatality rate.
There was data on the severity rate.

It seems like a hoax that “mutants become more severe in young people”is.
Of the 289 people, 16 became severely ill, which is not so high. However, as the description says, the population parameter is small, so this alone cannot be said, but the asymptomatic rate of children is high, and it is the same that people in their 70s and above are still tough.
I can’t say for sure because the population parameter is small, but I feel that the infectivity is strong but the case fatality rate has dropped a little. However, this will be blown away if an in-facility infection occurs in a facility for the elderly. The case fatality rate cannot be compared for the same person, so if you jump into a facility for the elderly, it will rise at once.
For that reason, I think Japan completely missed the priority of vaccines. This is the responsibility of the subcommittee and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

[Scoop !!]In developed countries, only Japan prioritized vaccination of healthcare workers over the elderly.It was the new coronavirus infectious disease policy subcommittee that pushed the crowd

The reason is that it is doubtful that the mutant strain has a high severity rate, but according to the data of Osaka Prefecture

Although it is written that it has been almost replaced by a mutant strain in the first place, it is seen only by patients who are found to be mutant strains with a small population parameter.The proportion of severely ill people among all positive people may be lower than the third wave …

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What will happen to the infection

Let’s take the example of England.

In a nutshell, the third wave in England

Rapidly expanded and rapidly converged

It seems that Professor Iwata said that it was an amateur’s stupid idea, as expected.

A secret plan to hit the simulation of Mr. Nishiura who is rolling out

This is my hypothesis.

In this way, many people in Asia have high infection thresholds, so infections are unlikely to increase explosively.
But if you look at the example in Osaka

The fourth wave is rising at a fairly steep angle. This is thought to have caused infection even if the threshold was slightly higher. In Osaka, there are clusters at schools and workplaces.
However, to put it the other way around, it does not increase forever like Professor Nishiura.

Isn’t it expanding rapidly and converging rapidly?

I will take the theory. At first, I thought that the peak in Tokyo would be from June to July.
In the UK, it peaked out three months after the spread of the infection and decreased at a stretch. In that case, I imagine that Osaka, which started to increase from March, will peak out around the end of May. This is a hypothesis, not a prophecy.
It burns and disappears.

Even so, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and the subcommittee, which prioritized vaccination because they are medical professionals from facilities for the elderly to clerical staff in ophthalmology and dermatology, should take responsibility properly if medical care collapses. I think it’s harder to get sick compared to winter, but anyway, I can’t talk about it unless I shut down the facilities for the elderly.

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Like adding to the end of the materials in Osaka

As far as I can see, nothing is done in the facility for the elderly. I was told by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare that I would continue to inspect the facility … and even though I wrote that I was able to prevent clusters !!!
I think Mr. Yoshimura’s ability to analyze medical brain data is too bad, but what about it?

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