Are covid infections decreasing in the world? What explanations does science have?

In recent weeks there has been a remarkable reduction in the number of contagion and deaths from covid-19 globally, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO).

According to the international organization, during the first five weeks of the year it went from having 5 million new infections to 2.6 million, on February 10, 2021, which represents a reduction close to 50 percent.

A figure that continues to decrease, if one takes into account that a week later (Wednesday, February 17) the figure was 220,000. This represents the lowest weekly figure since September 1 of last year.

But the death figures have also fallen, to the point that last Tuesday, February 16, only 7,202 deaths were registered in the world, the lowest number since November 10.

Why have the global covid-19 figures fallen?
Faced with this drastic drop in world numbers, science is still searching for answers that account for this effect.

The first hypothesis that has emerged was given by the same WHO. According to scientists from the organization, this has been a sign of successful policies and measures to contain the epidemic.

This was explained by Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, CEO of the organization: “This shows that basic public health measures work, even in the presence of new variants”.

However, experts say that it is not possible to arrive at a conclusive answer without sufficient studies, so it is they study several possible explanations, such as that there are areas of the world that have reached a significant level of immunity.

This is one of the hypotheses that is handled regarding the decrease in cases in India, one of the countries most affected by the pandemic, where it is believed that a significant proportion of the population was immunized against disease.

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“I think I understand that there are a sufficient number of people in India who were exposed to the virus. And that is perhaps the reason why the cases are decreasing,” said virologist Shahid Jameel.

But this explanation is still being taken with reserve by the WHO, which says that it is still premature to draw such conclusions.

Another factor that could already be impacting positive, although to a lesser extent, it is the vaccination. Cases such as Israel, one of the most advanced countries in its immunization process, would be proof of this.

In a study conducted on 1.2 million dand vaccinated people Already with the second dose in Israel it demonstrated a reduction of 94 percent in symptomatic cases.

However, the vaccination process to world level it is still in its infancy, so some believe this might not be a very reliable indicator. So far, more than 186 million vaccines have been administered in 82 countries, and more regions will begin inoculaciones in the next weeks.

What the scientific community This is because this does not guarantee that the virus is disappearing or that it cannot regain strength.

In fact, there are still areas of the world where cases are on the rise, especially in the American continent. According to UN data, more than half of the positive cases worldwide are still registered in the region.

According to Pan American Health Organization, In the last two weeks there has been an increase in covid-19 cases in Central America, especially in parts of Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala, in the Amazon region along the border between Brazil, Colombia and Peru, and reported an increase in infections in the Caribbean.

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Another factor that will probably help reduce cases and deaths in the coming months is the arrival of spring in the North Hemisphereas the virus tends to be less active during warmer weather.


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