In the next three months, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME, for its acronym in English) of the University of Washington expects that Mexico will account for 145 thousand deaths per Covid-19, in the best scenario, and 152 thousand in the worst, in case hygiene measures are relaxed.
In this regard, specialists consider that the government can still modify its strategy, but to reduce the number of infections and deaths, it must be in synergy with society.
According to the latest IHME estimates, it is estimated that by March 1, Mexico will accumulate 145 thousand deaths; However, in a scenario in which the massive use of face masks, the mathematical model projects 10,000 fewer deaths.
In contrast, if measures are relaxed, both regarding the use of face masks and healthy distance, the institute predicts 152 thousand deaths for the same date.
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The institute’s figures indicate that second wave of Covid-19 in Mexico It will be less intense than the first, with fewer infections and an average of between 400 and 500 deaths per day, with a peak between December 29 and 31, to decrease throughout January.
“It is clear that the government can improve or modify its strategy to deal with Covid-19, implement the use of a mask; Although it is not necessary to use public force, they could carry out campaigns to promote the massive use of this input; However, it is not enough that the hospital network is expanded or mitigation measures are made known, society must also team up with the authorities and respect hygiene and safe distance measures; if the measures are relaxed, the figures will not decrease, “he says. Alejandro Macías, UNAM infectologist.
The IHME report highlights that the winter season will put extreme pressure on the occupancy of hospital beds and intensive care units in most states.
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“Most state health systems will experience extreme stress on their capacity for hospital beds and intensive care, from November to February. The most affected entities would be Aguascalientes, Baja California, Coahuila, Durango, Guanajuato, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Jalisco, Mexico City, State of Mexico, Nayarit, Nuevo León, Puebla, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas , in general beds ”.
Samuel Ponce de Leon, expert in infectious diseases from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (ONE), states that Mexicans will have to live with the virus until a vaccine appears, and although the second wave is expected to be less catastrophic in terms of mortality, this will depend on the adoption of sanitary measures by the population.
Differences with European country
In this context, despite the fact that the president Andrés Manuel López Obrador He assured that in Spain the situation due to the pandemic “affected more”, the data for excess mortality or deaths that were not expected for 2020 show that Mexico surpasses the European country.
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Until the second week of October, Mexico reported a surplus of 203 thousand 231 deaths compared to 2019, while Spain has 56 thousand 394 deaths more than last year. When taking into account the total population, the Republic registered an excess of 1,610 deaths per million inhabitants and the Iberian country of 1,225 per million.
Regarding the excess mortality from Covid-19, Spain explains 60% of the unexpected deaths as a consequence of the pandemic; Mexico barely exceeds 40% in official figures.
In this regard, Rodolfo de la Torre, director of Social Development of the Espinosa Yglesias Studies Center, considers that this does not mean that the other deaths have been caused by other conditions, but that it may be due to the lack of evidence to detect Covid and that, due to the pandemic, care for other diseases was reduced.
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“According to official figures, 40% of the excess deaths is due to SARS- CoV-2, But this amount can be much higher, if one takes into account that Mexico is one of the countries with the least application of Covid tests, ”the specialist points out.