Now that Theresa May has announced her date of resignation, what will happen next?
At first nothing. She will remain in office to bear the burden of the results of the European elections, which will be announced Sunday night and should be very dark for the Conservative Party.
She will also welcome Donald Trump during his visit and will stand alongside the President of the United States and other world leaders for the D-Day commemorations in Portsmouth on June 5th.
The clashes between potential successors that have been going on for weeks will intensify dramatically. The contest officially starts on June 10th. Candidates will be invited to formally declare themselves. MEPs will then reduce them to a series of votes before the end of June, leaving party members with the final choice.
The party wants the process to be completed by mid-July, in time for the installation of a new prime minister before the summer break of Parliament.
What does the departure of May for Brexit mean?
The main reason for the relatively fast competition is to give the new boss time to set up a new firm and establish his stand on Brexit. The deadline for Britain to leave the EU is 31 October, leaving little time for discussions with EU27 leaders.
Brexit should dominate the leadership race. Candidates will have to compete to show that their position is tough enough to impress the conservative left-wing MPs and turn from the threat of Nigel Farage's party to Brexit.
Boris Johnson, the favorite, has already stated that Britain was due to leave the EU on October 31, agreed or not, but he risks being overwhelmed right by Dominic Raab, the former secretary Brexit.
Steve Baker, a member of the European Research Group, who voted against the May withdrawal agreement on three occasions, unlike Johnson and Raab, also said he was considering running.
Are we on the way to not agree?
This certainly seems much more likely than at the beginning of the week. The champions of Johnson and Raab hope to convince the EU27 to propose a much more flexible relationship based on a Canadian free trade agreement and, most importantly, to abandon the safety net.
Otherwise, they could try to leave Britain without an agreement. There has been no majority in Parliament for this approach, but the tough Brexiters believe that a strong representation of the Farage party will change the balance. Certainly the backbenchers who organized the latest parliamentary maneuvers to block any deal, including Nick Boles and Yvette Cooper, doubt that they can do it again.
If Parliament does not oppose any agreement, the new leader could hold general elections, or even a referendum, in order to obtain a strong public mandate.
Is Theresa May's agreement dead?
Not completely. Much of the exit agreement that she has negotiated, covering issues such as citizens' rights, the Divorce Bill and access to institutions of the United States. EU, will likely remain in force regardless of the next outcome.
She might even try to hold votes on some of the least controversial items in the last weeks of her term, so at least some of the legislative work to get out on time on October 31 is over.
Many Brexiters, however, are determined to kill the backstop. May has always insisted that he had merely formalized the UK's obligations to protect the open border in Northern Ireland, but Johnson and others fear that this will become the basis of future commercial relations.
The "Checkers" deal, May's laborious attempt to marry Brexit's red lines to the needs of the British economy, looks like ancient history, though some observers believe Johnson could ease somewhat Brexit once the election of leaders will be over.
Could Brexit still be stopped?
Yes. A general election could dismiss a Labor or Labor-led government, but if Jeremy Corbyn's party formed a coalition with the Scottish national anti-Brexit party or Liberal Democrats, he would be under intense pressure to call another referendum. on the Brexit.
With parliamentary and public debates becoming more and more polarized, calls for the revocation of Article 50 are increasing. This seems impossible in the current Parliament, but some ministers believe that members would prefer it not be negotiated and a general election could radically change the complexion of the Commons – or, of course, leave it virtually unchanged.