• EUR / USD bullish commitments dropped to 1.13.
  • EUR / USD finds support at 1.1280 S1 swing The dollar retains the bias bias (US yield rises for 10 years) offer (2.7170%), with DXY test psychologically 97 Handle once again.

EUR / USD fell to the support level of S1 1.1280 after yesterday's correction highs sold out at 1.1341. The bears will be invited over the Wall for additional scrutiny after a cautious ECB and on bullish clay bites from the Sino / US trade talks and a principled agreement between Republicans and Democrats. Today's CPI data sealed the deal for the greenback and US yields.

Temporarily, the markets were distracted from politics with the January CPI report, which remained unchanged in December. The core printed a strong gain of 0.2% m / m.

"Overall, base effects and falling oil prices lowered the overall annual inflation rate to a 19-month low of 1.6%, while the core stood at 2.2% y / y, with the Fed remaining patient and today's report should consider it an additional price hold one or two times this year, "said TD Securities analysts, adding that the foreign exchange market remained at pre-existing levels, with the USD having a greater impact on the data. However, the focus remains on geopolitics and risk taking, given the possibilities for a ceasefire between the US and China and discussions on Brexit. "

As far as Brexit is concerned, Prime Minister May got a bit more leeway after two weeks at the latest and decided to make another neutral petition in two weeks, after confirming that she needed "more time" to make the changes secure yesterday. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell refused to surprise the Fed in the comments, even though he said that "the data shows a strong national economy and officials do not increase the recession probability at all."

The euro is also fluctuating due to a change in the ECB's stance

In other countries, the euro also fluctuates due to a change in the attitude of ECB members. We had Klaas Knot in an interview with the Ft. Forced to change slightly weaker (previously seen as a hawk). The tone of the interview hinted at a more neutral stance that will not force them to quit in 2019 and instead take a "wait and see" stance. Weidmann, another hawk, also took a more reserved stance when he said that the current economic weakness is "going on a bit longer" than previously thought.

EUR / USD levels

Commerzbank analysts said EUR / USD traded below 1.1265 through BUT NOT CLOSED:

"This is the December lows, so far as the market is holding, we favor a recovery to the 1.1535 200-day Ma and the 1.1623 high from mid-October, and in the longer term, we're aiming for 1.1723, the 55th -week Ma. " Reversal and we will try long positions again. "