The pound to euro exchange rate “hit a firmer tone” yesterday after staying in the range on Monday. “Better than expected labor market data,” they thanked for the increase, experts said. Markets have become more “dubious” about the Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in January.
“[This came] after better-than-expected labor market data, particularly in terms of earnings, markets grew somewhat more doubtful about the January rate reduction from the BoE; with such a result now about a 65 percent chance, from 75 percent at the end of last week.
“Today, the economic calendar is calm, so the pound is likely to trample the water ahead of Friday’s crucial PMI reports.”
Meanwhile, the euro struggled to gain on sterling yesterday despite the publication of Germany’s ZEW economic confidence survey, which beat out forecasts and rose from 10.7 to 26.7.
Professor Achim Wambach, president of the ZEW, said that economic sentiment in the eurozone economy of the eurozone has improved due to the agreement between the US and China last week.
DO NOT LOSE
With concerns about the longevity of the US-China “phase one” trade deal, the exchange rate from sterling to euro may begin to ease as fears of the negative impact on Germany’s global economy increase.
The pound to euro exchange rate will remain sensitive to British economic developments this week, with today’s public sector net debt report slated to decline from £ 4.878 billion to £ 4.6 billion.
Any further indications of a downturn in the British economy, however, would put additional pressure on the BoE to cut its interest rates this month, a prospect that would prove negative sterling.
Ahead of the week, the first meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) of 2020 will be held tomorrow. Brown, of Caxton, explained how this will affect the exchange rate.
“On Thursday the ECB will keep all monetary policy instruments unchanged, leaving the main refinancing rate at 0.0%, the deposit rate at -0.5 pecent and continuing the” open “asset purchase program at a rapid pace. 20 billion euros a month, “said Brown.
“However, it is the next revision of the ECB’s strategy, rather than monetary policy, that is likely to steal the limelight. The markets will pay close attention to the three” Ts “when the scope of the revision is announced.
“First, target; will the ECB revise its inflation target, perhaps by targeting inflation symmetrically or by setting the target more precisely?
“Secondly, transparency; it is likely that the Governing Council will discuss the publication of the voting documents or the adoption of an interest rate forecast similar to the Fed’s dot plot. Third, the timing; politicians will likely want conclude the review by the end of the year.
“For the euro, the meeting will likely be something non-event, with the possibility that any overly hawkish or optimistic economic commentary will remain sparse, possibly excluding politicians who note that the worst of the ongoing production slowdown seems to be over.” .
What does this mean for your holidays and money to travel this week?
The post office currently offers a rate of € 1.1299 for over £ 400 and € 1.1522 for over £ 1,000.
According to ABTA research, seven out of ten people are planning a trip abroad this year, but how will Brexit affect the 2020 holidays next week?
The UK Foreign Office has now issued an important travel notice for all EU countries.
The countries concerned are: France, Belgium, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal , Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
If the UK leaves the EU with an agreement, the trip will remain the same as the pre-Brexit one.
Valid passports will still be used normally, the costs of making calls, using the Internet and sending messages will remain unchanged and buses and trains from the UK to the continent will not be affected.
However, it will be a different matter if the UK left without an agreement. “The the rules for traveling to most countries in Europe will change when the UK leaves, “said the FCO.