Wait and see. It is the dogma that investors are following in these early stages of the year with regard to IAG. After the initial scare about Brexit, now overcome after the agreement, The company has implemented changes in its Board with the arrival of Javier Ferrán to the presidency of the consortium and in its capital structure.
The value, meanwhile, has been affected in the market by the reduction of flights that will begin next week by Ryanair to combat the spread of the coronavirus, after what happened in the United Kingdom. And the slowness of vaccinations, almost general in Europe, which can delay recovery, as well as the Filomena effect and the closure of airports such as Barajas do not help the value.
As if all this were not enough, now also faces a lawsuit of no less than 800 million pounds before a cyberattack against the company dating from 2018 in a class-action lawsuit that claims there was a data breach of 0.4 million customers.
The negative has dominated its stock chart since the beginning of the year, with a global balance of 4.4% and in the last month of almost 2% with many sessions, up to 6 out of 8 in negative, but added rebounds, which offset consolidation, although with a downward trend in the value since the beginning of 2021, after closing 2020 as the second worst value on the Ibex.
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But the look at the recovery in the medium term is what the market experts envision, who are betting mainly on value. With an average target price of 2.09 euros per share and a potential of 22%, 73% of analysts bet on buying IAG compared to 26% who advise keeping their shares. The before and after, as always the psychological resistance to exceed 2 euros per share. Further, Bankinter maintains its purchase advice on the stock with a PO of 2.5 euros per share and a potential of 46%.
María Mira highlights that “in a valuation by ratios and with an estimated EPS for the end of 2021 of -0.02 € / share, after updating the number of shares of the company after the capital increase; We do not see an upward trend in the stock beyond the volatility due to specific news. The market expects a contraction in EPS in 2020 that exceeds 200% and the rebound of + 97% in EPS for 2021 will therefore be from a sunken EPS in 2020 ”.
The fundamental expert on Investment Strategies highlights that “ If the calculation is done in absolute figures, thus eliminating the effect of the increase in the number of shares due to the capital increase, the fall in Net Profit will be greater than 300% between 2019 and 2020. Based on our fundamental valuation we are negative with the value, the risk is currently very high ”.
As our premium indicators show us, IAG barely shows, in consolidation mode, a three point drop in its total valuation, which is only 5 points out of 10 possible. Among the worst, the medium-term downward trend, rapid total moment and range of increasing amplitude in its two aspects, both medium and long term. In favor, the long-term upward trend and the volume of business, in the medium and long term, which is growing.
“IAG, the technical analyst of Ei José Antonio González tells us – maintains the short-term consolidation process that has managed to normalize readings of extreme accumulated overbought in price oscillators. In this sense, the violation of the 1.48 euros would enable sales to update targets downward towards 1.018 / 0.977 euros per share ”.
IAG on daily chart with Average amplitude range in percentage, MACD oscillator and trading volume
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