Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a species of non-tropical low pressure system located about 880 km east-southeast of Bermuda they continue to be better defined, and associated with rains and storms. Further development of this system is expected, with a subtropical depression likely to form over the next few days, as the low shifts to southeastern Bermuda.
The maximum sustained winds have intensified to 30 knots under a minimum pressure of 1009 hPa.
The subtropical system is being organized under relatively cool waters and its convection and storms are maintained thanks to the cold in height associated with a trough of 500 hPa, typical structure to maintain and organize the non-tropical type system.
The NHC gives you these probabilities of becoming a named subtropical storm:
* Probability of formation in 48 hours … media … 60 percent.
* Probability of formation in 5 days … high … 70 percent.
Currently, the system is south of a powerful blocking anticyclone on its northern flank that prevents it from being absorbed by mid-latitude flows. Its most likely trajectory is to head south over warmer waters and possibly strengthen and gain organization as a subtropical system.
If such a storm forms, it could be called Epsilon. Another broad zone of tropical low pressures is forming in the Caribbean and could dispute the name to the low near Bermuda.