JP Morgan analysts estimate that the covid-19 pandemic may end in April

The Observer – Montevideo

A projection of the current trajectory of COVID-19 cases and the progression of the different vaccination plans around the world indicates that the pandemic could end by April, a team of analysts from JP Morgan estimated in a report. as published on the Infobae site.

There it was specified that, in their analysis, the financial specialists did not consider the most contagious variant that emerged in the United Kingdom as a worrying factor, which has already spread to dozens of countries.

“The spread of variant B.1.1.7. it is not incompatible with a general decrease in covid cases and the n of the pandemic in the second quarter, due to vaccination campaigns, natural immunity, seasonality and other factors, “wrote one of the analysts in the report, quoted by US media.

The report did not refer to the variants detected in South Africa and Brazil.

“While the data set is still small, the statistical analysis on vaccination is consistent with a sharp decline (ie effective n) of the pandemic in roughly 40 or 70 days,” he added. That range implies that the target would be reached sometime between the end of March and the end of April.

JP Morgan analysts assessed the impact of vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 cases and the rate of spread in areas where the UK variant circulated and was not widely circulated in the US and UK, and found that the peak of post-holiday cases in both the United States and the United Kingdom was “almost identical”, despite the fact that the United Kingdom variant had not yet been detected in the North American country.

In addition, they noted that cases in Denmark during the same period increased even faster than in the United Kingdom and the United States, and that since then the infections in the Nordic country have decreased more rapidly despite the fact that the United Kingdom variant is has expanded. Something similar is observed in the states of Florida and California, where new cases of coronavirus have declined since the January peak faster than the national average, despite the fact that those two states have a higher rate of detected cases of the British variant .

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“This is another example of an increase in the cases of variant B.1.1.7. it may be consistent with a decrease in general cases (for example, due to seasonality, vaccination or natural immunity), ”the report indicates.

The document also analyzed the progress of vaccination globally. They found that, on average, for every 10% increase in vaccinations administered, new cases of Covid-19 have decreased at a rate of 117 per million people. That compares with an average spread of 230 COVID-19 cases per million people in samples from about 25 countries.

Simply using those two figures and assuming that the current rate of vaccination remains constant, and that social distancing and other preventive measures will remain in place, specialists conclude that the end of the pandemic could come as soon as 40 to 70. days.

The team’s analysis does, however, contain a number of caveats: The calculation assumes that there will be no setbacks with the launch or supply of vaccines and ignores regional differences in geography, demographics, and uneven distribution of vaccines.

But these factors, which could distort the results by making them too optimistic, also have their reverse, because the current stage of vaccinations throughout the world targets those over 65, who in turn have represented approximately the half of the hospitalizations and about 85% of the deaths since the pandemic began. Vaccinating that group will likely have a much greater incremental impact on the fight against COVID-19 than the next group of people younger and less susceptible to facing adverse events related to the disease.

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