New start for the economy

Reinhard Pentecost
Image: Bethmann Bank

Slowly but surely the fog of uncertainties is dissipating and the view of the new year is becoming clearer. In a few days, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new president in the United States and can look forward to a wafer-thin majority in the Senate, which should make governance much easier. And a chaotic Brexit was avoided in Europe. This removes two serious uncertainty factors. The stock markets are already celebrating this with new record highs.

Now the focus is again on the question of how the economy and thus corporate profits will develop. For the time being, the second corona wave is raging, especially in Europe and the USA. As in the spring, the renewed lockdowns are putting a strain on the real economy. Germany and Co. are – at least technically speaking – in a recession again. After the fourth quarter of 2020, the economy should also decline in the first quarter of the new year.

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