Brexit could cost British exporters £ 25 billion – full recovery not until 2023 Hamburg (ots) –
– British exporters could lose up to between £ 12-25 billion in trade volume after Brexit in 2021 – EU exporters could lose around EUR 10 billion in 2021 – British economy will grow by 5.5% q / q in Q1 slump and recover in full year 2021 with + 2.5% GDP growth, full recovery expected in 2023 at the earliest – UK supply chain worries overrated, many companies are already looking for local alternatives; However, prices for import-dependent industries such as the automotive and pharmaceuticals industries are likely to rise
Britain’s exporters could suffer sales losses of between £ 12 billion and £ 25 billion (€ 13.5 billion to € 27.3 billion) as a result of Brexit in 2021. This is the result of the current study by the world’s leading credit insurer Euler Hermes. According to the study, the reasons are weak demand, increasing bureaucracy and the devaluation of the British pound (-3% forecast for 2021). The mineral and metal products, machinery and electrical appliances, transportation equipment, chemicals and textiles sectors are likely to be hardest hit.
“As expected, the EU and Great Britain reached a last minute compromise on Brexit,” says Ana Boata, Head of Macroeconomics at the Euler Hermes Group. “However, the deal is far from complete and brings a transition period for the British due to the lack of preparation time. For British exporters, the ongoing uncertainty since the beginning of the year has led to some disruptions at the borders, which is why many smaller companies are suspending trade for the time being . About every fifth truck is turned away at the canal crossings, partly because of the Brexit paperwork. “
Outlook rather bleak: UK recession in Q1, full year GDP growth of 2.5%
The outlook in Great Britain is currently rather bleak: In the first quarter, GDP should collapse by -5.5% compared to the previous quarter due to Covid and plunge the United Kingdom into another recession. Overall, growth for the full year 2021 is likely to remain very restrained due to the pandemic and transition period with an increase of 2.5% in GDP, before it is expected to increase by 7% in 2022. But that also means that the UK economy will not return to pre-crisis levels until 2023 at the earliest.
For EU exports to Great Britain, Euler Hermes originally forecast losses of up to EUR 18 billion in the first year after Brexit.
The transition period creates planning security and halves export losses in EU countries
“The six-month transition period and thus the ability to plan are half the battle for local companies,” says Ron van het Hof, CEO of Euler Hermes in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. “This could almost halve the export losses in the EU to less than EUR 10 billion – even if Germany is still hardest hit with export losses of around EUR 2 billion.”
In the Netherlands, export losses to Great Britain are likely to amount to EUR 1.2 billion, in France to EUR 0.9 billion, in Belgium to EUR 0.7 billion and in Italy to EUR 0.6 billion.
“The agreement is more advantageous than other free trade agreements, as it offers duty-free goods,” says Boata. “However, the non-tariff trade barriers could  due to the exit from the customs union. Industries such as financial services are also waiting for an ‘equivalence status’ from the EU, which could take longer than the planned six months. “
Risk for supply chains overestimated – but rising prices in import-dependent industries
So British exporters face major challenges. The concern that supply chains could be interrupted, however, is probably less justified than previously assumed – mainly due to the pandemic. A recent supply chain survey by Euler Hermes found that UK companies are already trying to move their supply chains closer to their home country. More than a third (35%) are looking for domestic suppliers – a significantly higher rate than in EU countries such as France, Germany and Italy.
However, companies in import-dependent industries such as the automotive and pharmaceuticals industries have to expect that component costs will rise by up to 5% as soon as the new transition period ends in summer.
 Non-tariff trade barriers are indirect protectionist measures to restrict foreign trade that are not tariffs, levies or export subsidies. They make it more difficult for foreign suppliers to access the market, including technical regulations or standards, bureaucratic requirements such as registration formalities for imports or technical quality requirements for products, import and export bans, quantitative restrictions, import quotas, etc.
The full study “Brexit in times of Covid-19” can be found here:
Euler Hermes is the global market leader in credit insurance and a recognized specialist in bail and guarantees, debt collection and protection against fraud or political risks. The company has more than 100 years of experience and offers its customers comprehensive financial services to support them in liquidity and receivables management.
Euler Hermes uses the company’s own monitoring system to track and analyze the insolvency development of more than 80 million small, medium-sized and multinational companies on a daily basis. Overall, the expert analyzes cover markets that account for 92% of global gross domestic product (GDP).
With this expertise, Euler Hermes makes world trade safer and gives the more than 66,000 customers around the world the trust they need in their business and how they are paid. As a subsidiary of Allianz and with an AA rating from Standard & Poor’s, Euler Hermes is the financially strong partner at the side of its customers in the event of damage.
The company, headquartered in Paris, is represented in over 50 countries and employs around 5,800 people worldwide. In 2019, Euler Hermes reported consolidated sales of EUR 2.9 billion and insured business transactions worth EUR 950 billion worldwide.
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