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It has been around four and a half years since the United Kingdom voted yes in the referendum to leave the European Union, and with nine days left before the roads part, the future relationship between the two is still unknown, the possibility of a Brexit ‘ hard ‘is real and the process continues in a countdown that has never ceased to be present.

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And it is that in this time there have been three British prime ministers, two general elections in the United Kingdom, two leadership in the European Union and countless ‘deadlines’, ‘critical moments’, ‘turning points’ and side threats and side.

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The last of these, the current situation: once the United Kingdom left the EU on January 31 of this year, at the end of this month the transition period ends with which everything remained the same, so since 1 January the British Isles will cease to be part of the EU structures, without yet reaching an agreement for their future relationship.

The European negotiator, Michel Barnier, affirmed yesterday that “we are at the crucial moment and making the last effort”. And although in recent days it was stated that the intention is to negotiate until the last possible moment, others say that the time remaining is not enough.

Although an agreement was reached for the border in Ireland, which was one of the main stumbling blocks, fishing permits and the UK’s intention to ‘regain its maritime territories’ are now the protagonists of the ‘fight’. And this is just one of the parts of the trade agreement that governs the economic relationship.

According to Matthew Bevington, a researcher at the UK in a Changing Europe initiative and at King’s College London, “the process has been much more difficult than what was anticipated by the experts, and much more than what was said in the referendum. . The reasons are that it was not recognized how interconnected the United Kingdom and the EU are after 40 years of integration, the political culture that has prevented the creation of consensus, and that the decision worsened the social divisions in the population. Brexit has changed British politics permanently ”.

But this process has raised a lot of opinions, and some not so positive. As Stephen Chan, professor of politics and international studies at the University of London’s Soas center, says, “The process has been tense and essentially poorly prepared from a British point of view. The quality of negotiators and positions has always been inferior to those of the EU. Still, the Theresa May deal was workable, and shows the arrogance under Boris Johnson to think they could go further. “

FEAR FOR THE ‘HARD’ BREXIT

The main fear at this point is that an agreement will not be reached and that from next year a chaotic divorce will be executed, which would generate great economic and commercial problems.

Although it can be said that according to estimates, this outlook would be more negative for the British side. Just yesterday, the EU Internal Market Commissioner, Thierry Breton, stated that “I am going to say it with my heart, this Brexit is a tragedy”, but added that “Britain will be the loser”.

These forecasts, cited by AFP, suggest that a scenario without an agreement would generate a loss in the GDP of the European Union of 0.75%, while in the case of the United Kingdom it would practically reach 3%. It should be said that around 45% of British exports go to the 27 countries of the EU, which would now go from having a 0% tariff, to around 12%, according to a report by Euler Hermès. Only 5.5% of the block’s external sales go to the islands of Great Britain.

In addition, it is expected that the pound sterling could depreciate around 10%, while the euro has had a good year compared to the basket of major currencies worldwide. These aspects are what make both parties have said that they will continue negotiating, even next year if necessary.

Therefore, although the deadline for a possible pact to be ratified in the European Parliament and in the British has already passed, if it were to arrive, it would have to be promoted provisionally.

Still, there are prospects that that could happen. “The situation since January 1 depends on whether there is an agreement or not. Most likely, yes, thereby avoiding the worst of disruptions at the border. But there will be disruption in any setting, so the key to a pact is to create the foundation to build a deeper relationship. The short transition period has limited the depth of the discussions, ”says Bevington.

Chan, for his part, indicates that “some kind of compromise is possible before the Brexit deadline. But it is unlikely to be clear or even logical on all sides, although that kind of deal would be better than nothing, which would be disastrous for the UK, and Johnson knows it. “