The stock markets rose sharply in November

Dax curve

Before the last trading day in November, equity investors can already draw a positive conclusion: with an increase of around 15 percent, the month was extremely successful for the Dax.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt Actually, the prospects on the stock market are still good: There is a prospect that a vaccine against the coronavirus will soon be available. There is still hope that an agreement will be reached between the UK and the EU in the Brexit negotiations. And there are increasing indications that the handover to the new President Joe Biden after the US election will take place in a fairly regulated manner.

But whether all of this is enough to give the stock markets further momentum in the final weeks of the year remains to be seen. Some observers fear that a large part of the year-end rally could already have taken place this time.

Before the last trading day in November, equity investors can already draw a positive conclusion: with an increase of around 15 percent, the month was extremely successful for the Dax. In particular, the reports on the progress in the development of a corona vaccine caused strong price gains from November 9th.

Most recently, however, the possible economic effects of the current restrictions have tended to lead to disillusionment or a sideways movement on the stock markets.

Nevertheless, the leading German index ended the past trading week with a plus of 1.5 percent on a weekly basis and closed on Friday at around 13,336 points. However, the Dax is still a good 3.3 percent away from the all-time high of 13,795 points.

New records on Wall Street

The situation is different on Wall Street: It was only last Tuesday that the Dow Jones Industrial Index cracked the 30,000 mark for the first time, even if it remained below that at the end of the trading week.

On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite technology index reached a new record high at 12,236 points – although trading on “Black Friday”, which traditionally heralds the Christmas business and when many market participants are free, was generally quiet.

Recently, the nominations of the first cabinet members by the designated US President Biden were well received on the financial markets. Among other things, the former Fed chief Janet Yellen is to become the first US Treasury Secretary.

The current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, will answer questions from the US Congress on Tuesday. Investors hope that the hearing, which takes place every six months, will provide new information on future monetary policy.

Brexit negotiations will take place again this weekend. According to Edgar Walk, chief economist at Metzler Asset Management, these are in a crucial phase: “An agreement must be reached within the next two weeks in order to avoid a ‘no-deal Brexit’.”

In the past few days, those involved had repeatedly expressed the hope that an agreement would be possible by Tuesday. “We currently see the chances of this at around 60 percent,” said Walk.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier opposed it tweeted before leaving for Londonthat the same considerable divergences still existed.

Economic data at a glance

In addition, investors are interested in the upcoming economic data in the new week. Particular attention should be paid to the US labor market report on Friday. “In the USA, employment will continue to rise, but much more slowly,” predicts Commerzbank economist Christoph Balz.

The third wave of infections is now running, and because of the contact restrictions imposed as a result, employment in November is likely to have increased less than before. The figures from the private employment agency ADP will come on Wednesday.

In Germany, consumer prices in November are on the schedule on Monday, and the corresponding data from the euro zone will be published on Tuesday. In addition, the purchasing manager indices for the manufacturing sector are published. The purchasing managers’ indices for the service sector will follow on Thursday.

The vaccine manufacturers should also remain in focus. For example, the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company Astra-Zeneca is planning additional studies on its vaccine after doubts about its effectiveness had previously arisen. Investors are therefore currently relying more on the pharmaceutical companies Moderna as well as Pfizer and its Mainz partner Biontech.

From the point of view of DZ Bank analyst Michael Bissinger, a vaccine would be a “game changer”. In general, this should be followed by a good year for stocks, in which “latecomers and corona losers will benefit,” he writes in a study.

On Thursday after the close of trading, the index review of Deutsche Börse is also due. Changes are expected in both the MDax and the SDax. Siemens Energy’s share, which has been listed on the stock exchange since September, is likely to be a candidate for the MDax.

The news agency Reuters refers to calculations by Commerzbank, according to which the financial services provider Grenke or Aareal Bank are considered the possible relegators.

There could be several changes in the SDax. The candidates who could leave the index include Tele Columbus, Leoni, W&W, DMG Mori, Secunet Security and Dr. Hoenle.

Flatex, Hensoldt, Home24, Verbio and Westwing can obviously hope for a place in the small value index. The changes will then take effect on December 18th.

With agency material

More: The Dax 40 is coming – What that means for investors and companies

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Disney – What are the odds for the entertainment giant? ()

Disney: DIS // ISIN: US2546871060

What does it take to start an innovative company? Walt Disney thought it was a vision, because “it’s fun to do the impossible.” This is how the producer and animator created one of the most successful companies in the entertainment industry. And at the same time had Dagobert Duck, the richest duck and greatest curmudgeon in the world, say a sentence that would be worthy of any good Swabian: “People who spend money don’t understand the real joys of a capitalist.”

But what does it take to steer a steamer like Disney through the troubled waters of our time? A strategy that can even cope with the corona virus. When amusement parks can hardly be visited and film labels belonging to the group such as Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm and 20th Century Fox do not bring their productions to the cinemas, other sectors have to deal with it.

For example, the Disney + streaming service, which already had over 50 million customers five months after it was launched. In the battle of streaming services, Disney can fall back on its gigantic film archive. There are world-famous blockbusters such as “The Avengers” and “Star Wars”, but also reliable arthouse bestsellers such as “Grand Budapest Hotel” and “My Name Is Khan” with Indian superstar Shah Rukh Khan. India hardly has any on the map, but the Bollywood potential of the one billion people brings massive business.

All in all, as a leading global entertainment and media company, Disney is well positioned for the demands of the future. Now we come into play with our analysis of the stock and it is very promising!

First of all, we have been invested in Disney since August 31, 2020 and are currently around 21% in profit.

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Primary scenario // 67%

Walt Disney was an avid supporter of the Republican Party. In 1964 he supported the superconservative Barry Goldwater in the presidential election, and two years later in the gubernatorial elections in California Ronald Reagan, who later became the 40th President of the United States. So you don’t have to guess who Walt Disney would have endorsed this year. Is that why the shares kept us tortured for so long before the US election and almost destroyed our position in the process?

Well, the election is over, although not everyone may believe it, and things are looking better at Disney: After the stock’s low of $ 117.25 in early November, we saw its impulsive rise to $ 147.64. Now the chances are good that this impulse movement has been completed and the next step is a setback. We calculate this scenario with a probability of 67%. At the bottom of the setback, which can be around $ 125, we are considering buying again. This is followed by an impulsive rise in the stock to above the value of $ 147.64.

Alternative scenario // 33%

In our alternative scenario with a 33% probability, the bears are not yet ready for this setback. Instead, the bulls step on the gas again, leading the stock above $ 147.64 towards $ 160. A recovery should be expected there at the latest, which is the right time for us to think about whether, when and where we will increase.

We are currently evaluating Disney very carefully, waiting for the right moment to get started and seeing Disney the stock at over $ 400 for the next 1-3 years.

Would you like to be there the next time you start and simply test without obligation whether we can also present these results for your depot?

This is free of charge!

That means you can buy for all 30 Dax stocks and all 30 Dow Jones Shares receive position management (entries, exits, stops, profit-taking). See for yourself!

Free registration: www.hkcmanagement.de

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Corona summit, vaccine, Brexit: stockbrokers expect difficult weeks

It is a time between hope and fear: the virus is causing concern, while vaccine development is shedding some light on the horizon. The Brexit talks are also a hangover. The general mood is nevertheless positive. Investors prefer to look far into the future – beyond the crisis.

Despite the successes in developing a corona vaccine, investors are likely to have turbulent weeks ahead of them. “Experience has shown that it is less the cold season and more the pandemic fatigue that causes the number of cases to rise again,” say the experts at the asset manager Western Asset Management. The current restrictions to contain the corona virus are useful, but are at the expense of the economy.

Dax 13.137,25

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at brokerage house IG, points out that the approval and wide distribution of a vaccine will take some time. “That leaves investors worried about how much the second wave will spread and how bad the situation will be over the winter.”

Against this background, stockbrokers are eagerly awaiting the Corona summit from the federal and state governments on Wednesday. The still rapidly increasing number of infections is fueling the debate about further requirements for restaurants, schools or contact restrictions. According to information from Reuters from country circles, it is currently most likely that the closure of restaurants, for example, will be extended and new requirements imposed in schools. The retail trade should therefore remain open in the important pre-Christmas business.

Positive mood: what will the Brexit talks bring?

Overall, however, the mood is positive, says investment strategist Axel Botte from asset manager Ostrum. “The financial markets have obviously decided to ignore short-term risks and are already looking to the time after Corona.”

The most recent Dax rally lost momentum, however. On a weekly basis, the leading German index had only managed a meager increase of 0.6 percent. In the previous two weeks he had gained just under five and eight percent.

Investors were also encouraged by media reports on progress in the Brexit negotiations. According to them, after years of tug-of-war, the UK and the EU could put their future relations on a contractual basis in the new week. However, Börsianer was nervous when the talks were interrupted due to a corona case in one of the delegations. According to the Finnish European Minister Tytti Tuppurainen, the talks are at a critical stage and the time pressure is enormous. Without an agreement, the introduction of tariffs at the end of the year threatens economic burdens for both sides.

Economic data at a glance

When it comes to economic data, investors are turning to the US consumer spending on Wednesday. The buying mood of consumers is considered to be the mainstay of the world’s largest economy. A few hours later, the US Federal Reserve the minutes of their most recent meeting. Stock traders expect them to provide further evidence of an expansion of Fed asset purchases in December.

Overall, however, stock market operators expect little impetus from Wall Street, which will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will close its doors on Friday at noon. Many US investors take this opportunity for a short vacation.

This side of the Atlantic stands on Tuesday the Ifo-Index, which reflects the mood in the German boss floors, on the schedule. A comparable barometer at European level will follow on Friday. The day before the GfK-Index Information about the mood of German consumers.

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Dax expected higher – company balance sheets at a glance

Frankfurt (Reuters) – In anticipation of a new wave of company balance sheets, the Dax will start higher on Wednesday, according to calculations by banks and brokerage houses.

A DAX logo is pictured at the trading floor of the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski

On Tuesday he closed half a percent plus at 13,163.11 points.

According to stockbrokers, investors are still sorting themselves out after encouraging news about progress in developing a coronavirus vaccine. “It is still too early to put Corona on file,” warned Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. “It will take some time until a vaccine is available in sufficient quantities and immunization is widespread. Nor is it to be expected that the central banks will now return to a halfway normal monetary policy. ” Against this background, investors will closely follow statements made by the ECB management team in an online forum run by the central bank.

At the same time, numerous companies open their books. From the Dax, the utility E.ON and the automotive supplier Continental are also involved. Stockbrokers also keep one eye on the Brexit negotiations. After the recent encouraging statements, they hope that the UK and the EU will reach a last-minute free trade agreement.

Closing prices of European indices

on the previous trading day

Dax 13.163,11

Dax-Future 13.199,00

EuroStoxx50 3.442,62

EuroStoxx50-Future 3.451,00

Closing prices of the US indices at the level change

previous trading day

Dow Jones 29,420.92 + 0.9 percent

Nasdaq 11,553.86 -1.4 percent

S&P 500 3,545.53 -0.1 percent

Asian indices on Wednesday stood change

Nikkei 25,349.60 +1.8 percent

Shanghai 3,340.51 -0.6 percent

Hang Seng 26,366.97 +0.3 percent

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Börse Frankfurt-News: Reach for Chinese stocks (ETFs) ()

FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE-BOERSE AG) – Some of the market setbacks are used by investors to get into Chinese stocks.

Technology stocks are also popular. Corporate bonds denominated in euros and US dollars are available for fixed income.

November 4, 2020. FRANKFURT (Frankfurt Stock Exchange). Focus on Chinese stocks in the downward phase on the international stock markets: This is how traders summarize the most noticeable ETF flows of the past week. At BNP Paribas, Hubert Heuclin was among the biggest winners, according to MSCI China (WKN DBX0G2) and SC300 ETFs (WKN DBX0M2). The latter shows the price development of the 300 largest Chinese A shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

Christian Dürr from Société Générale notes a preference for trackers from MSCI China (WKN A12DPT) and justifies the demand with good Chinese economic data, among other things. “Officially, the country has Corona under better control than others.”

Wait and see attitude

Aside from the trust in index funds with Chinese stocks, according to Heuclin, there are no other major trends in the equity segment. So shortly before the US election, investors probably kept a low profile. Even if someone had an idea of ​​the outcome of the election, the reactions on the capital markets remained a big question mark. So far, US stocks measured on the S&P 500 have gained 13 percent annually since Trump’s surprising victory in 2016, while the Stoxx Europe 600 has come to 3.9 percent. However, with Brexit, the rampant pandemic and fiscal policy, there are a number of other political factors influencing share prices.

Pan towards sustainability

Heuclin describes trading in globally active portfolios as inconspicuous. On the one hand, investors rely on SPDR MSCI ACWI ETFs (WKN A1JJTC). These would roughly correspond to the outflows from MSCI World values ​​(WKN A0RPWH). The trader posts the inflows to the MSCI World ESG Enhance ETF (WKN A2PCB4) from iShares on the account of the increasing importance of ethical investments. In addition to excluding companies active in controversial business areas, the company gives more weight to companies with higher ESG ratings.

DAX values ​​inconsistent

Dürr’s customers dealt more intensively with European values. Euro Stoxx 50 (WKN A14UT5) trackers were traded a lot, but with no clear trend. The trader carries DAX ETFs (WKN ETFL01) with a slight purchase surplus.

In the course of the market weakness, Patrick Schröder from Lang & Schwarz registered above-average interest in ETFs that replicate the DAX inversely (WKNs DBX1DS, DBX0BY). These could also be hedging transactions.

Heuclin speaks of inflows for products that are based on the S&P Europe Ex-UK Large Mid Cap Index (WKN A2JCAG). However, these were comparatively moderate.

Long-running technology

In the trade in industry ETFs, Dürr is enjoying popularity for technology stocks in the S&P Select Sector Capped 20% Technology Index (WKN A0YHMJ). Bank stocks in the Euro Stoxx Banks (WKN 628930) followed by health stocks in the Stoxx Europe 600 Health Care (WKN A0Q4R3) were among the most popular sector ETFs.

Farewell to corporate bonds

The bottom line is that BNP Paribas customers said goodbye to bond ETFs. This applies to corporate bonds in the Barclays Capital Euro Corporate Bond (WKN A0RGEP) and Barclays Capital Euro Corporate ex-Financials 1-5 (WKN A0RPWP) as well as to US dollar-denominated securities in the Goldman Sachs GS InvesTop (WKN 911950) . Most purchases are made for high-yield euro bonds in the Markit iBoxx Euro Liquid High Yield (WKN A1C3NE).

by: Iris Merker

November 3, 2020, © Deutsche Börse AG

(Deutsche Börse AG is solely responsible for the content of the column. The contributions are not an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)

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Börse Express – WEEKLY OUTLOOK: US election and lockdown keep Dax in check

The US presidential election and the renewed corona lockdown will determine the direction for the German stock market in the new week. Corporate figures, economic data and the meetings of the central banks of the USA and Great Britain, on the other hand, are likely to take a back seat. In addition, the hanging game for a solution to the Brexit dispute between the EU and Great Britain remains in view.

“The second big wave of new infections and the new corona restrictions will keep the stock markets firmly under control. The upcoming US election could also cause uncertainty if it takes longer for a result to be determined,” commented the chief investment strategist at Commerzbank, Chris-Oliver Schickentanz. Most recently, the announced corona restrictions in Germany for a pitch-black stock market development with a strong Dax -Weekly loss of 8.6 percent ensured

According to Robert Greil, chief strategist at the private bank Merck Finck, the last few days before the US election are likely to be the “height of uncertainty” for the financial markets. He pointed out that “the expected clarity about the future US administration is the first step to reduce nervousness in the markets, followed by the approaching Brexit decision and expected positive consequences of the extensive Covid-19-related restrictions” . Although this initially means that the stock exchanges are more susceptible to fluctuations, the early-cycle economic upswing should pick up speed again and support the stock market.

Frank Klumpp from Landesbank Baden-Württemberg sees it similarly: “In addition to the pandemic worries, which are also becoming more virulent in the USA, investors fear an uncertain election result in the coming week. But worries about the US election should soon If a clear result is already clear on election night, share prices are likely to react with a relief rally, “expects the equity strategist.

With regard to corona restrictions, Klumpp is now making the following calculation: “Lockdown light is equal to market correction light.” Certainly the new restrictions would hit some industries such as gastronomy and tourism particularly hard again, according to the equity strategist. “Still, we do not fear a bear market like in the spring: The lockdown that has been adopted is more moderate than it was then, and companies are better prepared for it. In addition, work on vaccines is already well advanced,” said Klumpp.

DZ Bank chief economist Stefan Bielmeier assumes, however, that the partial lockdown will have noticeable effects on the overall economy, even if the losses are not likely to be as severe as in the spring. “After the strong recovery in the third quarter, a relapse into a – albeit presumably slight – recession is now not unlikely,” said Bielmeier.

In addition, there is still a risk of a hard Brexit. EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen recently saw “good progress” in the talks on a trade pact with Great Britain, but important points of contention are still unresolved. EU Council President Charles Michel said that it would probably be possible to assess the situation next week.

The most important economic data to be published in the new week include incoming orders and production figures for German industry on Thursday and Friday. In the US, the release of the labor market report on Friday should deserve special attention. Otherwise, investors should focus on the monetary policy meetings of the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve on Thursday.

In this country, the quarterly reporting season for companies continues at full speed in the new week. While on Monday with the numbers of the medical technology company Siemens Healthineers
As the only large German company is still relatively quiet, it will be more turbulent on Tuesday. Among other things, the pharmaceutical and agrochemical company Bayer provides information
, the specialty chemicals company Evonik , the Kochboxenversender Hellofresh as well as the fashion company Hugo Boss about their business development.

The car manufacturer BMW will follow on Wednesday , the property group Vonovia , the airport operator Fraport , the chemicals distributor Brenntag
and the reinsurer Hannover Re .

The weekly highlight of the series of numbers is Thursday with the quarterly results from Lufthansa, among others ,
Commerzbank , HeidelbergCement , Lanxess
, Shop pharmacy , Munich Re
, Gea Group , Dialog Semiconductor
and linden tree . The insurance company Allianz will follow on Friday and the armaments company Rheinmetall ./edh/tav/he/mis

— By Eduard Holetic, dpa-AFX —

 ISIN  DE0008469008

AXC0042 2020-11-02/05:50

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DAX in the red: Impending lockdown 2.0 sends stock exchanges downhill – 28.10.20

Investors are fleeing the international stock markets for fear of another recession. The Dax fell by just under four percent to 11,609 points on Wednesday, and the EuroStoxx50 slipped by a good three percent to 2966 points. On Wall Street, the US standard value index Dow Jones started with a minus of two percent.

The second coronavirus wave has Europe firmly under control, said economist Alessia Berardi from asset manager Amundi. Governments are under increasing pressure to drastically restrict public life. In Germany, the federal and state governments are advising on the closure of restaurants and sports and leisure facilities. According to media reports, similar strict restrictions could be introduced in France from Thursday as in the spring.

“FEAR BAROMETERS” RISE – LOCKDOWN AS AN OPPORTUNITY?

Against this background, the volatility indices VDax and VStoxx, which measure investor nervousness, rose to four-month highs of 40.59 and 38.63 points, respectively. The comparable barometer for euro investors reached its highest level since the stock market crash in March.

However, the term “lockdown” should not degenerate into a bad word, warned Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank. “A short, strict lockdown can be an opportunity.” If the chains of infection were broken, consumers would feel safer again and would not practice voluntarily long-term consumption. However, it has not yet been foreseeable that similarly generous aid packages will be launched this time to cushion the economic consequences of the pandemic, said investment strategist Michael Hewson from brokerage firm CMC Markets.

OIL PRICE IS FALLING – DOLLARS AND BONDS IN DEMAND

Speculations about a decline in demand also sent the oil price down. The Brent variety from the North Sea fell by 4.6 percent to 39.27 dollars per barrel (159 liters). Selling pressure will be exacerbated by rising US inventories, said Harry Tchilinguirian, chief oil investment strategist at BNP Paribas. In the wake of the oil price, the index for European oil and gas stocks slipped by a good three percent.

At the same time, investors fled to “safe havens” such as federal bonds. This pushed the return on ten-year stocks down to minus 0.646 percent, the lowest level since March. The world’s leading currency was also in demand. The dollar index, which reflects the exchange rate against major other currencies, gained 0.7 percent. This affects the gold price because the precious metal is becoming less attractive for investors outside the US. It was down 1.4 percent to $ 1,879.46 a troy ounce (31.1 grams).

TRAVEL AND CAR VALUES UNDER PRESSURE

On the stock market, travel and tourism stocks in particular flew out of the depots. This sector suffers particularly badly from the pandemic restrictions. The industry index fell 2.3 percent. Its counterpart for the carmaker even slipped by 4.3 percent. Lockdown fears particularly affected French companies.

Contrary to the trend, Aston Martin titles rose at times by more than 17 percent. The British sports car manufacturer, known from the “James Bond” films, will pay for parts supplied by Daimler with its own shares in the coming years. “It’s a smart deal,” said analyst Daniel Schwarz from Mainfirst Bank. “Mercedes comes to 20 percent of Aston Martin without financial investment. If things go well there, that’s worth something. If things go bad, the risk is very limited.”

Deutsche Bank was unable to escape the general downward trend, although the institute returned to the black. The share lost 0.2 percent. “The numbers are encouraging,” said CMC expert Hewson. “The big question, however, is whether they are sustainable.

rtr

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Börse Express – Börse Frankfurt-News: Direction undecided (weekly outlook)

Analysts see potential for price fluctuations in the increasing number of infections, upcoming Brexit decisions and the US election. Technically, the direction decision is still pending for the DAX.

October 26, 2020. FRANKFURT (Frankfurt Stock Exchange). The economic consequences of the current corona wave, a reporting season that is also picking up speed in this country and a European Central Bank that may be positioning itself for further easing are among the topics that stock marketers are currently grappling with. If you add the Brexit poker to that, according to market observers, there are some arguments in favor of a continuation of the swing price on the German stock market.

Last week the DAX lost around 2.3 percent and went out of trading with 12,645 points. After weak indications from Asia, the German share index opened again weaker in the morning at 12,303 points.

DAX direction uncertain

According to Christoph Geyer, market participants are still reacting surprisingly calmly to the impending danger of a second lockdown, and the US elections only appear to be taking place on the sidelines in the markets. The Commerzbank chart technician gains this impression when looking at the intact DAX sideways range and the unchanged low volatility of the Dow Jones. The DAX turnover signaled a reluctance. “Apparently the stockbrokers are waiting for facts.”

In the opinion of Helaba, a directional decision is still pending for the DAX from a technical perspective. Overall, however, the negative aspects predominate. The further corona development, the reporting season, Brexit and, last but not least, a decision in the US elections would have the potential to trigger larger swings in one direction or the other.

Quick tests for a little more normalcy

One of the greatest negative factors on the financial markets is currently the rapid spread of Covid-19, including recent lockdowns. According to Cyrus de la Rubias of the Hamburg Commercial Bank, the use of rapid antigen tests could help society to live with the virus over a longer period of time with great acceptance. The rapid tests are cheap and reliable with a sensitivity of up to 97.6 percent.

For example, one could put a stop to the isolation of older people in old people’s homes and allow family celebrations, smaller concerts, art exhibitions, theater visits and sporting events again. In any case, aviation has high hopes for the rapid tests. The Federal Ministry of Health is still demanding that the tests be carried out by medical staff. However, De La Rubia believes it is expedient to entrust non-medical personnel with the implementation in the future.

Fear is a bad advisor

Robert Halver from Baader Bank makes politicians responsible not only to stir up fear, but also to encourage citizens. With all due caution, we should not degenerate into the “toilet paper economy” in which people only dare to leave the house out of fear to buy everyday items. According to GfK, propensity to buy, economic expectations and the consumer climate index actually clouded over again after a temporary recovery from the lows.

Important economic and economic data

Thursday October 29th

9 clock. Frankfurt: IPO fashionette AG. In subscription on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange until October 27th

1.45 p.m. Euro area: ECB interest rate decision. According to analysts, the most important issue will be whether and when the PEPP bond purchase program will be expanded. Most investors expect further monetary easing by the end of the year.

In addition, according to Helaba, it will be about the future inclusion of climate policy considerations. The environmental organization Greenpeace had massively criticized the previous bond purchase policy. According to an analysis by Greenpeace, the New Economics Foundation and three British universities, the ECB is buying a disproportionately large number of bonds from companies in carbon-intensive sectors (63 percent). However, these only made up 29 percent of the total gross value added.

1.30 p.m. USA: gross domestic product third quarter. In the past few months, US economic indicators provided positive impetus and high economic growth in the third quarter. Projected for the full year, DekaBank expects GDP to rise by 34.6 percent; the consensus is 32 percent. Despite this historically high value, the increase is nowhere near enough to meet the definition of a V recovery. This would require 63 percent.

Friday October 30th

8 o’clock. Frankfurt: Share Day. Buy 30 DAX shares and a selection of DAX ETFs free of charge: boerse-frankfurt.de/tagderaktie

by: Iris Merker

October 26, 2020, © Deutsche Börse AG

(Deutsche Börse AG is solely responsible for the content of the column. The contributions are not an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)

AXC0129 2020-10-26/11:33

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Outlook: How much the new Corona uncertainties are slowing down the DAX and Co.

The dynamics of the second corona wave surprised many stock marketers. Even if a real crash in prices is very unlikely, the situation remains fragile. The uncertainty of market participants in view of the further increase in the number of corona cases and political imponderables such as the US presidential election, the (unsuccessful?) Struggle for the US aid package and the hanging game over Brexit remains high. But there are also opportunities. A weekly outlook.

The harsh Corona reality should prevent big jumps on the German stock market in the new week. After the hope of another US economic stimulus package to combat the economic consequences of the pandemic had supported the prices at the beginning of October, concerns about a loss of control over the development of the infection are now growing.

Chief economist Ulrich Kater from Dekabank wrote that although the infection rate seems to be worst in Europe, the numbers in the USA also continued to rise. This will result in economic setbacks in the current quarter: “A slump like the one in spring is not to be feared, because the economy has become more flexible. But further declines in overall economic activity are possible.” Overall, the risks would increase and in such a situation market participants would become more cautious.

On Friday, the DAX managed to bring a very turbulent week to a conciliatory end. The leading index started the weekend at 12,909 points – with a week minus of a good one percent.

From a technical chart point of view, however, the situation on the DAX does not appear too tense, wrote the authors of the stock market letter Futures exchange von Bernecker: “As long as the DAX stays in the previous range, nothing burns.”

It is now important that the lower edge of the month-long trading range is kept at around 12,500 points, but even a decline of another 500 points to 12,000 points would not be a catastrophe, even the opposite: At this level, the prices could have fallen so far that the Investors are no longer ready to sell more stocks at such a low level.

And this would then also be “the surest guarantee that an autumn rally will be possible”. The prerequisite for this is that the news status regarding coronavirus is not too negative.

Focus on economic data

In addition, investors should also take a look at economic data in the new week in order to better assess the economic consequences of the pandemic. According to analyst Claudia Windt from Landesbank Helaba, the German and European purchasing manager indices should prove on Friday in the reporting week that the economy is getting bumpy in this country. At the same time, however, the Chinese growth figures for the third quarter at the beginning of the week would show that the economy there is on a solid recovery path. The country has known how to avoid a second wave of infections so far.

All in all, according to Windt, there should hardly be any positive impulses for the capital markets in the new week that would allow investors to switch fully back to risk mode – i.e. buy heavily. Rather, security should be preferred, especially since the Brexit hanging game is not over yet.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson now expects a hard break without a treaty with the European Union (EU) on January 1st. The EU evidently has no interest in a free trade agreement desired by Great Britain, as with Canada. Accordingly, one now expects a relationship like with Australia, i.e. without a contract.

First German companies with quarterly figures

Business figures from companies are still quite rare in the new week. The pharmaceutical and laboratory supplier reported on Tuesday Sartorius over the past quarter before the Wednesday Software AG presented their results. In the further course of the week then follow with the telecommunications equipment supplier Adva Optical Networking and the personnel service provider Amadeus Fire (both on Thursday) as well as the electronics dealer Ceconomy and the seed company KWS Hour (both on Friday) four companies listed in the SDAX small cap index.

According to analyst Michael Bissinger from DZ Bank, the reporting season for the third quarter should show that companies are still suffering from the coronavirus, but significant progress has been made since the low point in the second quarter.

The assessment is no coincidence: in the past few days, companies like Daimler, BASF, Evonik and Covestro Surprised positively with their key data for the third quarter.

However, according to Bissinger, in addition to Corona and a large number of political risks, the high valuation level that shares have now reached has a dampening effect on price development. (With material from dpa-AFX)

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Economy, trade & finance: Frankfurt stocks: Investors remain cautiously optimistic

The MDax of the 60 medium-sized stock market stocks recently gained 0.31 percent to 28 089.64 points. The leading Eurozone index EuroStoxx 50 advanced by 0.34 percent.

However, market experts are skeptical about the continued profits: “The stock markets are amazingly immune to negative news at the moment,” said portfolio manager Thomas Altmann of QC Partners. Neither the spread of the corona virus nor the halting negotiations on the next US aid package or the lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations currently have any particular impact on the Dax. The agreement deadline in Brexit expires on Thursday. In addition, the reporting season in the USA begins this Tuesday.

Market analyst Milan Cutkovic from Axi spoke of “very thin ice” on which investors are currently moving. “The investors are fully committed to further stimulus measures and have not yet lost faith in an imminent vaccine.”

Among the individual stocks on the German market, the shares of Daimler in focus. Several positive studies gave them a boost, notably one of the US investment bank Goldman Sachs. Analyst George Galliers had raised the price target of the share from 40 to 60 euros and upgraded the paper by two notches, from “Sell” to “Buy”. As the recent Strategy Day showed, the pace of change is accelerating, he wrote. JPMorgan was also optimistic. The shares gained 1.4 percent at the top of the Dax.

Studies also moved the two MDax companies Carl Zeiss Meditec and Ströer . While the paper from the medical technology manufacturer rose by 3.2 percent as one of the favorites in the index, the title of the outdoor advertising specialist, the second largest loser in the index, lost 3.4 percent. The experts at the Mainfirst investment bank had made positive comments about Zeiss. The British bank made a negative comment on Ströer Barclays.

Since the low of the Ströer share in March, it has now rallied around 70 percent and is thus close to its record high, wrote analyst Julien Roch. He does not consider this to be justified and refers to his strongly slashed profit forecasts, which extend until 2023. Ströer appears comparatively expensive.

With its preliminary financial year figures, the SDax also said Stable in the eyes of investors. The shares of the automotive and industrial supplier jumped 11.5 percent. This made up for their corona-related losses between late February and March. Thanks to a more pronounced demand for cars, Stabilus performed strongly, it was said on the market./ck/stk

— By Claudia Müller, dpa-AFX —

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