European stocks open flat awaiting news on Brexit

FILE PHOTO: The graph of the DAX German stock price index inside the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, on November 25, 2020. REUTERS / Personal

Dec 3 (Reuters) – European stocks were barely moving at Thursday’s open, awaiting further signals on Brexit negotiations and as progress on fiscal stimulus packages and COVID-19 vaccine development continues .

London and Brussels could have made enough progress in their latest talks to reach a trade deal in the next few days, the BBC reported, with less than five weeks to go before the UK leaves the EU for good.

London’s FTSE 100 was holding close to Wednesday’s closing levels, when it rose more than 1%, after the UK became the first country to approve Pfizer and BioNtech’s coronavirus vaccine, whose inoculation will begin starting next week.

Following a volatile session on Wall Street in part due to concerns over the fiscal stimulus package, earnings in Asia were held back by falling Chinese stocks after the US House of Representatives passed a bill that threatens to withdraw. from US exchanges to Chinese companies.

For its part, the pan-European STOXX 600 index opened flat on a day that will be marked by the PMIs of services of the economies of the euro zone, which will be released in the morning.

Information from Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; edited by Shounak Dasgupta; translation by Jorge Martínez

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Goldman advises to buy British assets before possible agreement

The politicians believe a postbrexit trade deal could be reached this week, por what the strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. they are advising investors to embark on a buying spree of forgotten British assets.

The firm’s strategists, led by Sharon Bell, cite expectations of an economic reactivation and the deployment of vaccines next year among the reasons to buy the pound and British equities. A “limited” free trade agreement could be struck at the December 10-11 European Council meeting, they said in a comment on Tuesday, supporting the justification for investing in the ignored assets.

The pound, which has lost around 10% against the American dollar Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, it could appreciate around 8% to 1.44 against the dollar in about 12 months on the economic recovery and projected weakness in the US currency, according to Goldman. In turn, UK equities could benefit from the global shift into cheaper value stocks after years of underperforming other developed markets.

Politicians in the European Union and the United Kingdom are optimistic about a Brexit deal this week. British assets have suffered from the uncertainty of the post-Brexit referendum and the economic contraction brought on by COVID this year. A survey of Bank of America Corp. fund managers shows that UK stocks have the largest underweight exposure in the world.

UK domestic companies and the FTSE 250 index show greater sensitivity to pound fluctuations and could benefit from a growth rebound, according to Goldman, which singled out banks and homebuilders as potential beneficiaries. And even a stronger currency may not weigh down on the FTSE 100 indicator, with significant exporter exposure, strategists said, because recently the correlation between the pound and the benchmark has turned positive.

In the case of a free trade agreement, UK stocks should outperform the European benchmark, according to Goldman, as they trade at a 15% discount in the region.

Strategists believe the FTSE 100 will advance about 13% in 12 months to 7,200, supported by the anticipated rise in oil prices, an attractive dividend yield and a 35% discount in the PER to US market earnings. .

“An economic recovery in 2021 coupled with the trade deal with the EU before the end of this year would, in our view, catalyze a breakthrough for UK equities,” said the Goldman strategists.

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European stocks fall at the end of the best month in their history

FILE PHOTO: General view of the Stock Exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 16, 2015. REUTERS / Ralph Orlowski

Nov 30 (Reuters) – Europe’s benchmark equity index posted the biggest monthly gain on record on the prospect of easing coronavirus restrictions and hopes for a vaccine, but closed lower Monday with its eyes on the negotiations on the Brexit trade deal.

* With five weeks to go until the deadline, the weekend talks in London between the UK and the European Union were “quite difficult” and there remain “gigantic divergences” on the most controversial issues about fishing, the “game clean ”economic and dispute settlement, said a community source.

* “While my belief that a deal will be reached remains intact, time is running out soon and you have to start wondering how long it will be before we see a shakeup in the markets,” said Craig Erlam of OANDA Europe.

* Stocks featured on the London Stock Exchange delivered their initial gains and lost 1.6%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 stock index fell 1%, at the end of a month in which it climbed almost 14%.

* The gains were fueled by hopes for a more stable US trade policy under Joe Biden, as well as promising results from major coronavirus vaccine candidates.

* The French CAC 40 climbed 20% this month, while the Spanish IBEX and Italian MIB each advanced more than 22%. German stocks and British standouts gained more than 12%.

* Oil and gas stocks led the declines, declining 3.4%. Firms like Total SE, BP and Royal Dutch Shell lost around 5% as crude prices plummeted amid uncertainty over OPEC + will agree to extend its deep cuts in their talks this week.

* On the floor of the STOXX 600 was the Dutch bank ABN Amro, which lost 8.9% after announcing that it will reduce almost 3,000 jobs until 2024.

Edited in Spanish by Carlos Serrano

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U24 News | Crazy weather: How will the conditions be to close November?

Good day! After having a weekend with highs that exceeded 30 ° C, the temperature in the City of Buenos Aires drops again. We have a Monday with cool weather and clear skies. It feels a bit chilly on the last day of November, we actually returned to 12 ° C. How is the weather the rest of the week?

Although the sky is clear, we have a fresh and even cold morning in the City of Buenos Aires, something quite curious after having had a Sunday with 30 ° C. We detail how the weather will be the rest of the week.

Data from the National Meteorological Service 11/30

Now: 12.5 ° C

Minimum: 12 ° C

Maximum: 23 ° C

Chance of Rain: 0%

Humidity: 65%

Next forecast

Tomorrow we start December with very cool weather and partially cloudy skies.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, instability returns to the City of Buenos Aires.

For that day there are chances of rain in the afternoon and we will have a maximum temperature of 30 ° C.

As of Thursday, conditions return to normal until the weekend with mostly clear skies.

Also, the countdown begins to officially begin summer and end the year.

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What investors should expect from 2021

Most of us are understandably hoping to see 2020 in the rearview. The caustic impact of Covid-19 is unprecedented, with lives and businesses tragically lost. The blow to the world economy has been extraordinary: the latest global outlook from the IMF forecasts a contraction of 4.4% for the whole year.

However the dose horribilis which has certainly been 2020 is coming to an end with a positive air. The true turning point has been the scientific side.

Pharmaceutical giants, scientists and governments have collaborated and galvanized their efforts like never before, in an attempt to create a vaccine against the coronavirus and, thankfully, we currently have no less than three confirmed contenders. While this certainly helps the outlook, many challenges remain. Below, we highlight the areas that we believe will shape 2021 and beyond.

1) A vaccine against the coronavirus: The news everyone was waiting for came in early November. BioNTech and its partner Pfizer, and shortly thereafter Moderna and the partnership between the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca each declared successes in vaccine development. The joy in the markets was clear, with strong earnings.

Although the end of the pandemic is beginning to be seen, there are still many obstacles, mainly the logistics of a rapid and successful deployment of the vaccines. This is likely to take longer than expected and potentially let’s not see a mass vaccination for a few months yet, but herd immunity could be in the offing by the end of 2021.

It was fortunate for investors that Joe Biden’s victory coincided with the advance on the Pfizer vaccine.

If anything, fewer infections means more activity. The global economic engine can get back on track, and the most decimated sectors – such as travel, leisure, hospitality or retail – should hopefully enjoy a steady rebound as normalcy returns.

2) Ecological recovery: One of the main positive aspects of 2020 is the renewed interest in the environment and the way in which the crisis could accelerate the energy transition. It appears that policy makers and governments will use the pandemic as a reason to bolster their efforts to tackle climate change.

The EU recovery agreement includes € 550 billion for green initiatives, the biggest climate promise ever made. On the other hand, China – the world’s largest producer of CO2 emissions – surprised markets by declaring its intention to be carbon neutral by 2060.

In addition, Germany raised 6.5 billion euros from your first green bond and France aspires to be the first large low-carbon European economy. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom plans to issue its first green bond in 2021.

Green bonds, integration of ESG factors, impact and carbon reduction will be vital elements for investors

At the same time, greater international cooperation is needed on issues such as carbon pricing. We believe that the crisis may influence the speed of the energy transition for the better and that Covid-19 has accelerated and intensified investor demand for more transparent and sustainable products.

Looking to the future, green bonds, the integration of ESG factors (for environmental, social and governance sustainability), impact and investment strategies dedicated to reducing carbon will be vital elements for investors.

3) The new US administration: It was certainly lucky for investors That Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election coincided with the advancement of the Pfizer vaccine, as the combined news sent a wave of euphoria through the markets.

However, next year, investors and markets they should expect a dramatic change in tone of voice coming from the White House. The next American president has already deployed his four pillars in the short term: the response to the pandemic, the economy, racial injustice and climate change. But in the most immediate setting we anticipate stricter lockdowns due to the pandemic and, consequently, weaker economic data for the last three months of the year and the first quarter of 2021.

The EU seeks formulas to allow a trade agreement with the United Kingdom to be ratified after the deadline

On the other hand, it appears that the Republicans will retain the majority of the Senate and this could go against very progressive tax and spending policies by 2021. Biden hoped to introduce a major fiscal stimulus in the medium term, which would help fuel expansion and reduce reliance on monetary policy. But it appears that the world’s largest economy will need to rely on central bank support for some time to come.

In world politics, we anticipate that the US will once again adopt a much more multilateral approach. This will likely include a return of support for international groups such as the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and a new commitment to the Paris Agreement.

As for the protracted trade war with China, we do not expect a quick removal of tariffs, but we do expect a new, more constructive engagement.

4) Brexi: The UK-EU talks are a source of uncertainty, but on December 31 at 11:00 pm London (midnight in Brussels), the transition period ends.

According to the President of the European Commission, Ursula Von Der Leyen, some progress has been made in certain areas in relation to post-Brexit trade. Since time is fast running out to secure a deal, it seems like the EU seeks formulas to allow a trade deal with the UK to be ratified after the deadline and thus avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Securing an agreement means circumvent a future relationship based solely on WTO terms, as well as avoiding the additional costs related to the division and allowing broader agreements, for example, in the equivalence of some financial services. However, it is worrying that only about 5% of UK companies They have said they are prepared for the new business conditions.

The markets have a lot of good news, yet they still depend on strong political support

Looking to the future, we start from financial markets that have benefited from monetary and fiscal support in 2020. Furthermore, the planned development of a vaccine has allowed investors to see this year’s economic catastrophe. By 2021, there are reasons for optimism as the world drifts away from the coronavirus nightmare.

The markets have a lot of good news, and yet continue to depend on significant political support. Future returns on investments need good news about the outlook to translate into increased business confidence, strong job growth and continued recovery in corporate earnings.

We believe that the macro issues we discuss here certainly provide the opportunity for this to happen.

***Chris Iggo is Investment Director of AXA Investment Managers

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U24 News | Weather: Clear sky, although for many it is a dark day

This Thursday 11/26 we will have warm weather, with mostly clear skies and a temperature that will reach 26 ° C. There is no chance of rain, although for many the day is gray and even stormy due to the death of former soccer player Diego Armando Maradona. What is the forecast for the other days? We detail it to you.

According to the SMN we will have a Thursday with little cloudiness and a temperature that will reach 26 ° C in the City of Buenos Aires. The weekend the chances of rain return, although some feel that they are already in the middle of a storm due to the death of Maradona. Photo: NA

Data from the National Meteorological Service 11/25

Now: 18.4 ° C

Low: 18 ° C

Maximum: 26 ° C

Chance of Rain: 0%

Humidity: 34%

Next forecast

By Friday we will have mostly clear skies and a maximum temperature of 27 ° C.

Meanwhile, on the weekend the chances of rain return.

They are low, there is a 10-40% probability that a downpour will fall in the City of Buenos Aires.

Rain could appear in the afternoon and evening, both on Saturday and Sunday.

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U24 News | The good weather today is a taste of the weekend

Good day! After a somewhat unstable Wednesday, today 11/19 we will have warm weather, mostly clear and sunny skies in the City of Buenos Aires. There is very good visibility and excellent weather conditions that will last until next Tuesday 11/24. That means, we will have a beautiful long weekend, hot, by the way.

Excellent weather conditions for this Thursday 11/19: Warm, sunny and clear skies. Today there is no chance of rain, nor for the long weekend to come. Photo: NA

Data from the National Meteorological Service 11/19

Now: 17.1 ° C

Low: 17 ° C

Maximum: 25 ° C

Chance of Rain: 0%

Humidity: 75%

Next forecast

Tomorrow 11/20, the good weather conditions will continue in the City of Buenos Aires.

The temperature will oscillate between 16 ° C and 24 ° C.

Meanwhile, the weekend – apart from being long – we will have excellent weather.

The heat is getting closer and closer, on Sunday 11/22 we will have a maximum temperature of 30 ° C, the same as for Monday 11/23 (holiday).

There is no chance of showers until next Tuesday 11/24.

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Although the pandemic weighs on the minds of investors, the Brexit agreement, vaccines and monetary policy will act as supports

Juan J. Fdez-Figares (Link Securities) | After two consecutive days of sharp gains, the major European and US stock indices made a “halt on the road” yesterday, with some investors taking advantage of recent appreciations in many stocks to make a profit.

However, despite this, the aforementioned indices they ended the session in a mixed way, without great variations. From this general trend, the Ibex-35, which in recent weeks has been one of the indices that has performed the best, closing the day with a decrease somewhat higher than that of the rest of the European indices. This had a lot to do with fall in the shares of large Spanish banks, especially that of the shares of the BBVA, whose purchase transaction Sabadell (SAB) it was not entirely well received by investors who, on the other hand, rewarded the shares of the Catalan entity with strong increases.

It should be noted, however, that in the short term the macro scenario continues to become very complicated both in Europe and in the United States, as a result of the pandemic and the measures that different governments are adopting to combat it. So, politicians continue to bet on mass lockdowns of citizens and by the closure of some business activities and, in addition, there are already governments such as the British, French or German that have announced the extension in time of the measures of this type already in force. All this, as recognized yesterday by both the president of the ECB, Lagarde, and the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Powell, in their respective conferences, it will have a significant and very negative impact on the performance of the European and American economies, delaying their recovery. That is why they both promised to continue supporting economies of their respective regions, and it is highly probable that in the coming weeks new unconventional monetary policy measures. In fact, that’s what the European and US financial markets heavily discount.

On the other hand, it should be noted that yesterday two news of a political nature of great relevance in Europe were released: i) in what refers to the Brexi, Everything seems to indicate that an agreement will be reachedprobably early next week; and, as feared, ii) the governments of Hungary and Poland have blocked the approval of the European Union budget (EU) by rejecting the clause that links financing to compliance with the rule of law in the bloc, which will probably lead to a delay in the distribution of emergency funds to combat the impact that the health crisis has caused in many countries of the Euro Zone, funds with which governments such as Spain they count to try to balance their accounts for the year 2021. We do not know how this new political crisis will evolve within the European Union (EU) but, if it does not have a “happy ending”, it could delay the recovery of economies most penalized by the pandemic. At the moment it does not seem that either of these two factors is impacting for the better, in the first case, or for the worse, in the second, on the performance of the European stock markets, but it is a matter of time before they do.

Today we hope that the negative evolution of the pandemic in most of the developed world and the certain short-term impact it will have on economic recovery despite the investors’ spirits, causing a slightly bearish opening of the European stock exchanges. However, and it is possible that, after the recent rises that Western stock markets have experienced in recent weeks, especially the European ones, these markets suffer some cuts, product of profit takings, we still think that it is highly unlikely that a new correction occurs in them, at least in the short term. In this sense, it should be noted that we are convinced that the flow of news about development and vaccine marketing against Covid-19; the more than probable agreement for a brexit ordered; injection to the system huge volumes of liquidity by central banks; and the approval in the United States of a new massive plan of fiscal aid for those affected by the pandemic, which will come sooner or later, will act as supports of the securities markets and probably like catalysts for new hikes in them between now and the end of the year. Thus, and for the moment, investors seem willing to ignore the current situation, which is very negative, to focus on the future, which is presented, vaccines involved, much more favorable.

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“It is unlikely that there will be a new correction in the markets, at least in the short term”

After two consecutive days of strong rises, the major European and US stock indices made a “halt on the road” YESTERDAY, with some investors taking advantage of recent appreciations in many stocks to make a profit. However, despite this, the aforementioned indices ended the session in a mixed fashion, without great variations.

The Ibex-35, which in recent weeks has been one of the indices that has performed the best, fell slightly from this general trend, closing the day with a decline somewhat higher than the rest of the European indices. The fall in the shares of the large Spanish banks had a lot to do with this, especially BBVA shares, whose purchase of the Sabadell (SAB) was not entirely well received by investors who, on the other hand, they rewarded the shares of the Catalan entity with strong increases.

It should be noted, however, that in the short term the macro scenario continues to become very complicated both in Europe and in the US, as a result of the pandemic and the measures that different governments are adopting to combat it. Thus, politicians continue to bet on the massive confinement of citizens and the closure of some business activities and, in addition, there are already governments such as the British, French or German that have announced the prolongation of measures of this type over time already in force-. All of this, as both the president of the ECB, Lagarde, and the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Powell, recognized in both conferences, is going to have an important and very negative impact on the performance of the European and American economies, delaying their recovery -see section on Economy and Markets-. For this reason, both of them committed to continue supporting the economies of their respective regions, and it is very likely that new unconventional monetary policy measures will be announced in the coming weeks. In fact, that’s what the European and US financial markets heavily discount.

On the other hand, it should be noted that YESTERDAY, two highly relevant political news were released in Europe: i) regarding Brexit, everything seems to indicate that an agreement will be reached, probably early next week. -see section on Economy and Markets-; and, as feared, ii) the governments of Hungary and Poland have blocked the approval of the European Union (EU) budget by rejecting the clause that links financing with compliance with the rule of law in the bloc, which It will probably cause a delay in the distribution of emergency funds to combat the impact that the health crisis has caused in many countries of the Euro Zone, funds that governments such as Spain have to try to balance their accounts for the year 2021. We do not know how this new political crisis will evolve within the European Union (EU) but, if it does not have a “happy ending”, it could delay the recovery of the economies most affected by the pandemic. At the moment it does not seem that either of these two factors is impacting for the better, in the first case, or for the worse, in the second, on the performance of the European stock markets, but it is a matter of time before they do.

TODAY we expect that the negative evolution of the pandemic in almost the entire developed world and the certain impact that it will have in the short term on the economic recovery will weigh on investors’ spirits, causing a slightly downward opening of the European stock markets. However, and being feasible that, after the recent rises that the western stock markets have experienced in recent weeks, especially the European ones, these markets suffer some cuts, as a result of the taking of profits, we continue to think that it is very unlikely that this will occur. a new correction in them, at least in the short term. In this sense, it should be noted that we are convinced that the flow of news about the development and commercialization of vaccines against Covid-19; the more than probable agreement for an orderly Brexit; the injection into the system of huge volumes of liquidity by central banks; and the approval in the US of a new massive plan of fiscal aid for those affected by the pandemic, which will come sooner or later, will act as supports for the stock markets and, probably, as catalysts for further increases in them between now and the end of year. Thus, and for the moment, investors seem willing to ignore the current situation, which is very negative, to focus on the future, which is presented, vaccines involved, much more favorable.

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U24 News | The princes AMD, Nvidia, Apple and ARM invade the Kingdom of Intel

AMD, Nvidia + ARM and Apple are shaking the Intel realm, taking advantage of its stumbles – Specter and Meltdown – and big developments of its own: the new AMD Ryzen 5000 are superior on desktops, and Apple with its architecture-based M1 chips ARM is a battering ram against the x86-64 architecture in the laptop world.

Intel’s stagnation in the 14 nm chips and the delay in the jump to 10 nm is striking. Not to mention the 7 nm that they also have programmed, a lithography that they are already using at AMD, and it bases their success.

Intel was founded in 1968 by Gordon Moore (chemist and physicist) and Robert Noyce (physicist and co-inventor of the integrated circuit) when they left Fairchild Semiconductor. The other key character was Andy Grove, another chemical engineer, who ran the company for most of the 1980s and the high growth period of the 1990s.

Their success began modestly when they got Japan’s Busicom to order microprocessors for their programmable calculators. Engineer Ted Hoff designed a revolutionary chip that could be used in many other devices without the need for redesign.

It had potential and Intel decided to buy back the rights from Busim for $ 60,000.

In 1971 the first microprocessor was born: Intel 4004, a set of 2,300 transistors that executed 60,000 operations per second at US $ 200.

Then came the Intel 8008, Intel 8086 and 8088, selected by IBM for its IBM PC and in 1982 the Intel 80286 appeared, equipped with 134,000 transistors and the first to offer software compatibility with its predecessors.

In the meantime, “Moore’s Law” appeared, which states that every 2 years the number of transistors in a microprocessor doubles.

And William Gates built the “Wintel”, personal computers based on the Windows operating system, from Microsoft, and a microprocessor from Intel, with x86 architecture: computing grew rapidly.

In June 2005, Intel reached an agreement with Apple Computer to provide processors for Apple computers, with dual-core Intel Core Duo processors.

The brake

But one day Intel ceased to be the once innovative company.

The firm that dominated the world of PCs with a firm hand missed the opportunity to get into the iPhone and dismissed the relevance of the mobile world.

In recent times it is said that the Kingdom of Intel is in trouble, reeling. And there are very firm competitors, with the voracity that the market hunger grants.

For starters, AMD, which has achieved the new AMD Ryzen 4000 in laptops and AMD Ryzen 5000 in desktop PCs, which have grown a lot in gaming.

Intel’s stagnation in the 14 nm chips and the delay in the jump to 10 nm is striking. Not to mention the 7 nm that they also have programmed, a lithography that they are already using at AMD, and it bases their success.

Then, graphics card maker Nvidia, in 2020 has invested $ 40 billion to acquire ARM, a threat to Intel (and AMD). It is a potential bet for PCs and laptops, just as Apple does with its M1.

Meanwhile, ARM has just presented the Cortex-A78C for laptops also thinking about the leap from mobile phones or tablets to more traditional equipment when it comes to working and producing.

A no-minor question is whether the Apple M1s are all that Apple promises because they could challenge ARM in gaming equipment, and Qualcomm and Mediatek.

Apple broke the deal with its traditional partner, Intel, and went its own way. Will their promises be true?

Apple M1

“(…) Apple is making claims about batteries that I would characterize as “bombastic at best” if applied to a laptop with an Intel chip inside. With this M1 chip, I don’t have any frame of reference except Apple’s claims, which are substantial.

Apple claims 18 hours of video playback on the MacBook Air and 20 hours on the MacBook Pro. Video playback is a bad metric (especially since modern chips are optimized for it), so what to keep in mind is that those claims are significantly higher than what Apple claimed about its Intel-based predecessors: 6 more on Air and almost double on Pro.

But to be frank, I was expecting big announcements from Apple on battery. We already knew that it could extract more performance per watt than Intel and that translates directly to battery life. What I didn’t expect is how optimistic the company would be about performance.

Since the M1 is based on the ARM architecture, Apple needs an additional layer of software to run applications designed for Intel chips – it’s called Rosetta 2. The very idea of ​​x86 applications emulated on an ARM processor gives me hives. The experience of Intel applications emulated within ARM on Windows is not great. But Apple says that for certain graphically intensive applications you can get better performance on an application running through Rosetta 2 than on an equivalent Intel chip. (…)”.

We will see. As read, there are many processes to verify.

Now, if Apple’s expectation is true, the microprocessor market will be worse than Game of Thrones, and no one is assured of ruling the 7 kingdoms.

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