What risk do you have of coinciding with a positive in covid-19 if you attend an event

Various restrictions limit our movements and our social life to stop the transmission of covid-19. As it is so difficult for us to assess risks, a specific estimate can make it very clear why we should not have meetings that bring together many people. For example, In the province of Huesca, the probability right now that at least one person was infected at a wedding of 100 guests would be 34%.

This is considered by the platform developed by researchers from the Institute of Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI) of the University of Zaragoza to raise awareness of the impact of events with large groups. The map shows, by provinces, “an estimate of the risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 according to the number of people who attend an event – explains Yamir Moreno, researcher at BIFI -. The risk is expressed as the probability that at least one positive individual is present in it“. The user can interact and see how this risk increases as the size of the event grows (in the same province, from 500 people the probability of coinciding with at least one positive is already 100%). The map is updated daily with the official data on the incidence of covid-19.

Researchers caution that this tool does not express the risk of contracting the disease, which also depends on factors such as the duration of the event, the space in which it takes place and the protection measures.

Lotteries and betting

The humans we are not exactly good at assessing the risk we face every time. “For example, we tend to put ourselves in the minority when it comes to something that does not favor us, such as when we are afraid to get on a plane and not in a car, even though the probability of having a fatal car accident is 86 times higher than having it if we travel by plane –explains Moreno–. On the contrary, if it is something positive, such as winning in the lottery, we don’t mind taking risks or, in this case, investing. “

During the pandemic, many ask a question similar to the previous ones: what is the probability that I will get COVID-19 if I attend an event of a certain size? “This question does not have a universal answer and depends on factors such as the susceptibility that each one of us has to contract or transmit the virus,” he says. “What Yes we can approximate is what is the probability that a person who attends that event or meeting is positive for SARS-CoV-2“.

Moreno explains that to answer this question “it is easier to estimate the probability of just the opposite. For example, If we go to the stadium to watch a football game, what is the probability that none of the 50,000 spectators is infected? Let us now consider each of the viewers. If 1,000 of the approximately 47 million people in Spain are infected, the probability of not being infected can be estimated at 46,999,000 / 47,000,000, that is, a probability of 99.9978%. An optimal perspective from an individual point of view. In terms of bets, we are talking about a favorable event, 47,000 to 1! “Now, he continues,” what is the probability that all 50,000 people are not positive? From a probabilistic point of view, this equates to winning 50,000 bets simultaneously. Although each bet has a very high probability of winning, it is not easy to win them all. This probability can be calculated by multiplying that of a single win (0.999978 …) by itself 50,000 times. So we will get that the probability of winning all bets is only 34.5%. In other words, the probability that at least one bystander tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 is 65.5%! “

The Web ‘Events and covid-19’ It is part of an international project in which American researchers from the Georgia Institute of Technology and Northeastern University and the ISI Foundation in Turin (Italy) collaborate. It was first made for the United States and is now implemented in Italy and the United Kingdom. Spain is the fourth country that is added and the Group of Complex Networks and Systems (Cosnet) of BIFI is responsible for the project. “The idea is to extend the analysis to the more countries the better.”

What it evaluates

The risk of finding a person affected by covid-19 in a specific province depends on three factors:

  • Cases The estimate of the prevalence of cases in the province is given by the number of cases detected by the surveillance system in an interval between the previous 7 and 10 days.
  • Detected There are cases that escape the surveillance system. The factor of underestimation of infections, that is, how many we are able to detect in relation to the number of real cases, can vary between 1: 2 (1 in 2 real infected) and 1: 6 (1 in 6 real infected) and introduces a corrective factor to estimate the real prevalence of the number of infected.
  • Size Number of participants in the event.

A synthetic Zaragoza to simulate the effect of restrictions

How much would transmission drop if we confine Zaragoza to the perimeter and the curfew is also decreed? And if we also closed the bars, what would the difference be? Computational models predict, allow to ‘test with soda’ any measure. Simulate its effect and see what would happen, with the main function of helping decision-making. But for that you have to put the city in the computer. Yamir Moreno’s group at BIFI is going to “adapt the studies we have been doing in the US to Aragon and to Spain later.” They will start by creating a synthetic Zaragoza, incorporating census data, age, demographics, distribution of work centers and schools, etc. Thus, “we will have a population statistically equivalent to the real one.” Then, it will be necessary to generate the interactions between individuals and finally apply the epidemiological model. In the case of Boston, they had mobile phone data, “as we do not have this type of information here, we will generate interactions and contact networks artificially, but informed by data and mobility models.” He knows that “it will not be as accurate as Boston, but we believe that the average result of many realizations of artificial societies and evolution of the epidemic will be quite reliable.” These models “do not tell you what to do, but they are a tool that allows you to anticipate.”

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MIT develops an AI that recognizes if you have covid-19 by the sound of your cough

End covid-19 it remains the main mission of thousands of scientists around the planet. During the last months, numerous investigations have been carried out with the aim of trying to understand how a virus that spreads relatively easily spreads and, especially, when the person has not yet shown symptoms – or even when they never show them. Finding a remedy that allows the improvement of a patient or a vaccine that can eradicate the virus are the main objectives, although not the only ones: the latest tool developed by MIT can help a return to normality as soon as possible.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is developing a series of neural networks with the aim of helping the health authorities to control the pandemic. The latest development they have carried out is really impressive and seems almost science fiction, but the reality is that its high degree of effectiveness makes it a fundamental element: an artificial intelligence that can detect by a person’s cough if they have covid-19.

Ruben Rodriguez

Spanish researchers have discovered that eight out of ten patients with covid-19 suffer from a problem with their vitamin D levels, something that especially affects men

The main problem with the coronavirus is actually its ability to spread when the patient is not yet aware that he has contracted it. In fact, one of the main mysteries around it is not just why it spreads when someone is presymptomatic, but especially why there are people asymptomatic who do not suffer any physical problems but who are the main vector of contagion. How could someone who does not have any symptoms find out that they are actually sick and can infect more people? That is the main problem for the spread of covid-19 that now this tool can help stop.

Actually, Its operation is very simple. First of all, it has a neural network that is responsible for measure sounds associated with vocal cord strength; then another neural network takes care of detect mood signals of the subject, being able to interpret joy, anger, sadness … Finally, another third network is in charge of interpreting very subtle changes in the performance of our lungs. All three models are combined through a algorithm and this determines if there is some kind of muscle breakdown. If so, the person is infected with covid-19.

It might sound too futuristic, but the truth is that the tests they have carried out have obtained really impressive results. Some have been used 70,000 recordings of different people, with different with coughs, which are equivalent to a total of 200,000 audio samples. After using this AI, the researchers were able to recognize 98 5% of all people who were infected by covid-19 -about 2,500 people-; and, what may be even more important, they managed to discover the 100% of asymptomatic people.

This MIT study, developed by Jordi Laguarta, Ferran Hueto Y Brian Subirana, Y publicado en el ‘IEEE Journal of Engineering un Medicine and Biology’, confirms the great results of this impressive tool, although the researchers emphasize that the use of this guide It should never be a substitute for a PCR test or an antigen test. It must be an auxiliary element that helps medical services to determine if a person has contracted Covid-19 or if, on the contrary, they are healthy.

“The effective implementation of this group diagnostic tool could slow the spread of the pandemic if everyone uses it before going to a school, a factory or a restaurant. We believe this confirms that the way sound is produced changes when you have covid-19, even if there are no symptoms“, Subirana states in a statement. Although it may be imperceptible to the human ear, our voice can hold many secrets, even if we are sick with covid-19. A tool that can help stop the spread of the great pandemic of the 21st century.


Everything you need to know about the UEFA Champions League

Champions League Winners Ranking

He Real Madrid It is, by far, who has won the most Champions League in history, with 13 trophies (the last of them in 2018). Further back appear the Milan, with 7, the Bayern Munich, with 6, and the Barcelona with 5.

Champions League scorers ranking

The 2020 Champions League scorers ranking was led by the German Robert Lewandowski, of the champion Bayern Munich, who with 15 points was consecrated as the top gunner. Norwegian Erling Haaland, from Borussia Dortmund, followed with 15, while the podium completed it Serge Gnabry, also from Bayern Munich, with 9.

Regarding the historical ranking, the Portuguese Cristiano Ronaldo, today in the Juventus, leads with 130 touchdowns, followed by Argentine Lionel Messi with 115. Further back appears Spanish Raul Gonzalez, with 71, Lewandowski with 68 and Karim Benzemá with 65.

Where to watch the Champions League: which channel broadcasts the matches

The question is usually recurring before each new edition: What channel broadcasts the Champions League? The group stage and also the final round of the competition will be broadcast by ESPN for Argentina and much of the continent

Groups and crosses of the Champions League

The Argentine star Lionel Messi, captain of Barcelona, ​​will share group G of the Champions League with Juventus of Italy, the portuguese team Cristiano Ronaldo and the cordovan Paulo Dybala. The two top historical scorers of the most important tournament at club level in Europe will meet again in the group stage that they will share with Dynamo Kiev, from Ukraine, and Ferencváros, from Hungary.

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo

Atlético de Madrid, the team led by the Argentine Diego Simeone, will compete in Group A led by the last champion, Bayern Munich. It will also face Salzburg, from Austria, and Lokomotiv Moscow, from Russia.

Real Madrid, the most winning team with thirteen titles, will lead group B and collide with Inter de Italia, from the Argentine forward Lautaro Martínez. Shakhtar Donetsk, from Ukraine, Y Borussia Monchengladbach, from Germany, complete the area.

Group C is headed by Porto, but the maximum candidate to win it is Manchester City, which will also have to face Olympique de Marseille, by Darío Benedetto and Leonardo Balerdi, and the champion of Greece, Olympiacos, by Maximiliano Lovera from Formosa.

Group D will be one of the most even since it will have Liverpool, champion of England, together with Ajax, by Nicolás Tagliafico and Lisandro Martínez, and Atalanta, by Alejandro “Papu” Gómez, José Luis Palomino and Cristian Romero and the debutante closes it Central Jutland, Denmark.

In Group E they will surely fight for first place Sevilla, champions of the Europa League, and Chelsea, from England, while Rennes, from France, and Krasnodar, from RussiaThey will try to surprise.

Group F also appears competitive as it is seeded by the two-time Russian champion, Zenit, by Sebastián Driussi and Emiliano Rigoni, together with Borussia Dortmund, from Germany, Lazio, from Italy, by Joaquín Correa and Gonzalo Escalante and completes it Witches, who was declared champion of the incomplete Belgian league.

Group H will also be fought because they will be there Paris Saint Germain, finalist of the last edition, together with Manchester United, a historic one, Leipzig, Germany, one of the surprises of the “Super 8” of Lisbon, and completed by the surprising Turkish champion Istanbul Basaksehir.

What is the Champions League ball

UEFA unveiled in September the new ball for the Champions League, which will be the adidas Final 20, a model very similar to the one used in this last edition. The same original mixture of coral, light blue and blue colors, which will be highlighted with an effect of lines that surround the star panels.

⭐️ ⭐️Introducing the official 2020/21 #UCL match ball!! #ReadyForSport

When is the Champions League final played?

The coronavirus pandemic that completely changed this year’s edition raised doubts about where and when the Champions League final is next year. The definition, then, will be May 29, 2021 and will take place in the Atatürk Olympic Stadium at Estambul, the place where the final of 2020 was scheduled to be.