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Thursday, August 13, 2020

The R rate in Gloucestershire is rising and the government says the virus could grow here

The rate of R in the southwest has increased and the spread of the virus may increase in the region.

The R rate was confirmed by the government in the southwest between 0.7 and 1 on 3 July.

The news comes days after the reopening of pubs and restaurants on Saturday for the first time since the blockade began.

The rate of 0.6 and 0.9 reported by the government a week earlier increases.

The growth rate, which reflects the rapidity with which the number of infections is changing day by day, also shows that Covid-19 could grow in our region.

However, the data is unclear in the southwest with the potential growth rate in the region between -7% and + 2%. This means that the South West has both the lowest and highest potential growth rate in the UK.

A growth rate above 0 means that infections grow every day. A growth rate greater than 1 means that infections increase exponentially.

Although our county is on the border with several regions, it is classified by the NHS as the Southwest in their data.

What does the number “R” mean?

The Gov.uk document states: “An R number of 1 indicates that on average each infected person will infect another person, which means that the total number of new infections is stable.

“If R is 2, on average, each infected person infects 2 more people. If R is 0.5, then on average every 2 people infected, there will be only 1 new infection.

“If R is greater than 1 the epidemic is growing, if R is less than 1 the epidemic is decreasing.”

Yesterday (July 4) there were three more coronvirus cases registered across Gloucestershire, with one in Gloucester and two in Cheltenham, according to data published by Public Health England.

It means that the total number of cases is now 1,823.

The R number is estimated from data such as hospital admissions, hospitalizations and deaths in intensive care, as well as from surveys on contact patterns and swabs of families.

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