Different studies, published in recent years, place the Iberian Peninsula as one of the most affected areas in Europe from the climate emergency. The threat comes from two fronts: the western one, with a more raging Atlantic and more hurricanes; and the eastern, with a hot and violent Mediterranean, causing storms and DANA.
In the middle, this extreme south of Europe hit by the no rain. As the climatologist Joel Guiot (@joelguiot), author of the study who discovered that the Mediterranean region is warming above the world average, rather than ‘saharization’, half of Spain is facing a desertification in the form of a steppe that has already begun.
Now, a team of physicists and meteorologists from eltiempo.es has compiled some of the evidence that shows the greatest dangers faced by various regions of Spain that concentrate a large population, facing 2080. This, of course, future projections in the case the CO2 emissions that drive global warming are not cut.
Slide your finger or mouse through each of these scenes to reveal the future climate, according to the Climate change map Spanish that they have prepared for 2080.
As we have told in Newtral.es, the Valencian and Catalan coasts have a high population density. Combining heavy rains and sea level rise makes the Spanish Mediterranean coast one of the most exposed in the world. In areas such as Empuriabrava, there are urbanizations with a jetty. Areas with recurring risk of flooding (short return periods). In the province of Barcelona it will no longer be so strange to reach 40ºC, with more than 16 exceeding 35ºC.
In the center of the Peninsula it will have exceeded 3.5 degrees by 2090, as determined by the Guiot and Cramer study. Currently the capital has average maximums of 30ºC in summer, but in 2080 the normal could be that the maximums exceed 35ºC. With a significant cut in the rains.
Guiot and Cramer’s study paints for Andalusia a scenario of almost complete desertification. Starting with Almería. Heat waves will be more frequent, with exceeding 45ºC in the mercury of cities. The center and the south, the most vulnerable.
Trip to Spain in 2090
From La Manga to Extremadura in 2090. The more carbon we put into the climate machine, the further it takes us in the projections that warn of future forests turned into steppe, floods on the coast, salinization of aquifers and radical changes in the economy agrarian and tourist.
The desertification risk scenario soars in Alicante, Almería and Murcia. He traveled to that area The objective with his Climate Machine to move to the desert 2090 scenarios described by that study, in case carbon emissions go up.
There are certain regions of Spain that, as in the case of Levante, the increases in the sea level, derived from the arctic melt. But perhaps not so much in a direct way, but in episodes of storm that will enter the waters in urbanized areas.
He Sustainability Observatory (OS), together with the General Council of Associations of Insurance Mediators, published in 2019 a report on flood risk in the strip of the first 10 kilometers of coast for its residents. The Mediterranean and Medicanes storms point to risk in the Balearic Islands. The storms derived from hurricanes in the North Atlantic, in the Basque Country.
In the Canary Islands, meanwhile, the episodes of calima they could become recurrent, as we saw in early 2020. Incoming haze or airborne dust from the Sahara could be more common. In addition, the high temperatures that are usually associated will continue to accompany you. Of course, they would get rid of large increases in the average heat, which the rest of Spain will see.
That the previous images, of each scene, only are purely artistic recreations it depends on the management that is done today of CO2 emissions. Most of these processes, if not reversible, can be stopped, despite the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region.