The European elections prove to be the key to Britain's political establishment.
After the 2017 elections, it appeared that the two-party influence on traditional politics had increased, with the conservative party and the workers' party proving to be the dominant forces.
But two years later, the scene looks very different. With Change UK and The Brexit Party, new faces have surfaced and respondents predict that a party that was registered just three months ago will win the European elections.
Here's a look at what could happen and what voters in North East Lincolnshire need to know.
What will happen maybe?
If the latest poll is correct – and this needs to be compensated with a pinch of salt as the forecasts were far from 2017 and 2015 – then The Brexit Party, the single-issue group run by ex-UKIP Leader Nigel faced Farage faces a huge profit.
Nationwide pollsters YouGov calculated that the Brexit party could receive up to 37 percent of the vote, with Liberal Democrats ranking second with 19 percent, Labor ranking fifth with 13 percent and Tories fifth with just seven percent Vote.
Survation, the only polling company that correctly identifies the outcome of the 2017 blocked parliament, predicts tightening margins after conducting online polls on May 17. The Brexit Party ranks second with 30 percent, the Labor Party with 24 percent and the Tories third with 14 percent. YouGov's predicted Lib Dems take second place in the overall standings with 12 percent.
The two main parties hope that the result of Survation comes much closer to the brand.
Who will probably win in Yorkshire and Humber?
The Yorkshire and Humber regions will elect a total of six candidates. In the last elections in 2014, three Ukip, two Labor and one Tory MEP will return to Brussels and Strasbourg.
YouGov recently attempted a regional breakdown of the results and calculated that the Brexit party will take home half of the seats available.
The pollsters predict that Mr. Farage's cohort will win three seats, while Labor, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens will each gain a seat. If the results are correct, the Tories, the ruling party in Westminster, will be wiped out in the region when it comes to European representation.
When will we get the results?
With most continents voting for these elections, the process of counting and verifying the results may take some time, as well as the fact that countries like to hold their elections on different days (the UK traditionally prefers to vote on a Thursday but France uses Sunday as the nomination day for polls.
While voters in Grimsby and the rest of the country will vote today, the results will not be announced until Sunday when the candidates from Yorkshire and Humber travel to Leeds to find out if they have been elected. The results will be published from 22 clock.
How does the EU electoral system work?
The European Parliament uses the – somewhat confusing – d & # 39; Hondt system to figure out how many seats each party receives per region. It is a representative system so smaller parties tend to use it better, and it also has complications.
The party with the most votes in Yorkshire and Humber automatically wins a seat. To start the second round, their score is then halved (using the divide-by-one formula plus the number of seats they have won) and taking this recalculation into account, the party with the highest score will take second place. The process then continues until all six seats are split.
The reason why YouGov predicted that the Brexit party would gain three seats in the region is that, despite being divided by three votes, it will still receive more votes than the Tories in the six seat sample.
YouGov has the Brexit party 33 percent, the Labor party 18 percent, Lib Dems 16 percent, Greens 13 percent, Tories 8 percent, UK 4 percent and Ukip 3 percent.
On this basis, the Brexit party would take the first seat and then halve its share of votes to 16.5 percent. Once in the mix, Labor, with the largest share of votes (18 percent from Labor vs. 16.5 percent from The Brexit Party), would take second place. If Labor had won a seat, the score would be cut in half and make up nine percent.
Halving the result of the Brexit party, which is slightly above the result of the Liberal Democrats (16.5 against 16 of the Brexit party), Mr. Farage's party would take second place and score by three (divided by one plus divide it has won) and set it to 11 for the fourth round.
The Liberal Democrats would now take fourth place, while the Greens in this case would have the higher score of 13 against the 11 of the Brexit party, so they would win a seat and only have one left.
Even after all this training, the Brexit party would still have a higher score than the Tories (and Labor's shared score of nine) and would thus take a third place and repeat Ukip's success in the region in 2014.
Each party has a list of six candidates in Yorkshire and Humber, and the top candidates will take their place as MEPs, depending on how successful the party as a whole was. In the above example, the first, second and third candidates of the Brexit party would be chosen.
Where can I vote?
In North East Lincolnshire, 96 polling stations including eight Portacabins will be open on Thursday, May 23, between 7 am and 10 pm.
Registered voters should have received an electoral card by mail from the Council, but those who are on the electoral roll can vote without their card.
Are the European elections important if we go anyway?
Among some candidates in the region, there are fears that these elections will result in low turnout, also because of the uncertainty as to whether or not the MEPs will ever be held (Theresa May wanted to call them off when they reached a Brexit compromise) could over time) or disappointment with politics due to delays in Brexit.
The fact is, however, that the European elections will take place, regardless of whether or not the Prime Minister or another party leader likes it, and that Britain will choose a new group of 73 Members.
The six MEPs representing Yorkshire and Humber will work in Brussels and Strasbourg to do what they were elected to do by the people – be it to get the UK out of the EU or to stop Brexit and get closer to it other EU countries will cooperate with Member States in the future.
They may only be in the job for three months, but then they could be there for five years. If you do not choose who you want today, you might regret that decision for a long time.
Whatever you think about Brexit, the best way to express it will be the vote.
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