Two tropical storms in the coming days: Caribbean and Atlantic

Francisco Martin Leon 3 hours ago 4 min
NHC image indicating the position of Invest 94L for October 17, 2020. NHC

If this were so, we would have Epsilon and Zeta, with a number of tropical storms that would equal the record year of 2005, but with these and other tropical storms formed long before 2005. Remember that tropical storm Zeta of 2005 formed in late December and Zeta of 2020 would do it in October: two months in advance.

The storms of 2020 have been very precocious and early

It should be noted that an unnamed subtropical storm was found in 2005 in the post-season fine analysis, bringing the record total for that season to 28 tropical storms.

Preliminary trajectories of the 2020 tropical storms to Hurricane Delta in early October, according to Brian McNoldy.

Of the 26 tropical cyclones so far, 25 have become tropical storms, 9 have become hurricanes and 3 have become major hurricanes (Cat3 +).

From Invest 94L to possible subtropical storm Epsilon

An area of ​​low pressure, located southeast of Bermuda, is being organized under the presence of a trough and cold air at height that has allowed the development of convection within it.

The National Hurricane Center it is monitoring it as Invest 94L. Remember that one Invest is a low pressure system analyzed in detail on which many specific data sets are collected and the passes of the numerical prediction models are centered. It is not a named tropical system.

Invest 94L sequence on visible channel- October 17, 2020. TropicalTidbits

Slow and continuous development is expected. It is very likely to occur a depression or subtropical storm in a day or two. The low will be south – southeast of Bermuda without affecting land.

* Probability of formation in 48 hours … high … 80 percent.
* Probability of formation in 5 days … high … 90 percent.

For now, this system is not a threat to the mainland or to nearby islands in the coming days.

The winds generated by this system and the high blockade, which is further north, can generate rough seas in the area and the waves could extend to the Bahamas, coasts facing the north of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands etc.

Prediction of the trajectories and intensity of Invest 94L by different models. TropicalTidbits

Another bosom of low tropical pressures in the western Caribbean Sea

The other area that is monitored by the NHC is in the western Caribbean. It is currently a wide area of ​​low pressure with showers and storms. It could be better organized and affect eastern Central America and southern Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and all this for the second half of next week.

The possible tropical low would move slowly to the north or north-northwest over the western Caribbean Sea.

* Probability of formation in 48 hours … low … close to 0 percent.
* Probability of formation in 5 days … low … 30 percent.

The area in yellow shows where the Caribbean system indicated in this section would be formed. NHC

Caribbean waters are still warm enough enough to develop active tropical casualties.

If both systems become NHC-named tropical storms, they would be called Epsilon and Zeta, letters of the Greek alphabet.

This entry was published in News on 17 Oct 2020 by Francisco Martín León

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