El Nino set to be most intense ‘for over a century’: UK forecasters
UK forecasters have warned that the impact of this year's El Nino event is expected to be the most intense in more than a century, driving extreme weather effects.
United Kingdom forecasters have warned that the impact of this year’s El Nino event is expected to be the most intense in more than a century. The effect of the phenomenon will drive the risk of drought, high temperatures, intense rainfall, and other extreme weather effects, according to a statement issued by the Met Office on Friday.
Typically, El Nino leads sea surface temperatures to rise between 1-2 degrees Celsius (1.8-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). However, forecasts for the 2026 version predict record values of more than 3C (5.4F) in the coming months, the forecasters said.
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"We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts."
Adam Scaife, head of the office’s long-range forecasting, via Al Jazeera
The chief forecaster separately told the BBC that the three-degree rise was “unheard-of in modern climate records”. If the spike plays out as anticipated, “then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences”, he added.
El Nino is triggered by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing global weather patterns. US meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the beginning of El Nino in June, saying it could last until spring 2027. The previous El Nino event lasted around 12 months from June 2023 and May 2024. It followed the world’s most recent La Nina event, which lasted roughly 31 months from late 2020 to early 2023.
Governments around the world are already grappling with historic climate events so far this year. Wildfires have burned through more than 200,000 hectares (494,200 acres) in Indonesia and rampaged across southwestern Europe, forcing the displacement of at least 325,000 people in Spain and France according to Al Jazeera, while other countries are dealing with severe droughts.
The Met Office said El Nino will spawn wetter, stormier conditions in northwestern Europe, including the UK, as autumn and winter arrive in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong effects are expected throughout the Tropics, Scaife said, “where we expect really severe droughts in places like South America, and the West Pacific”. In mid-August, the UK recorded its hottest day of the year as the temperature in west London climbed to 38.1C (100.5F), beating the previous high of 38C (100.4F) in June.
Combined with the effects of human-induced climate change, the Met Office warned that the event is “very likely” to make 2027 the hottest year on record globally. Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow, said: “During large El Nino events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere, leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Nino.” Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the pre-industrial period, as reported by the Mirror.
Although not a scientific term, media outlets and commentators are calling it a “super El Nino”, which is when sea surface temperatures rise at least 2C above the long-term average. Last week, NOAA confirmed that temperatures had exceeded this threshold and said El Nino is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter 2026-27. The agency said that during the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of El Nino events dating back to 1950.
The relationship between climate change and El Nino events remains an area of scientific research. Some research suggests that global warming can contribute to making El Nino events more intense. Burning fossil fuels for energy and transport drives climate change by trapping more and more of the sun’s heat in the atmosphere. As El Nino adds extra heat to an already-warming planet, the effects of one activity can compound the impacts of the other.
"If climate heating is loading the dice towards more extreme events, then El Niño is adding weight."
Dr Ella Gilbert, presenter and climate scientist, via Mirror
Dr Ella Gilbert, presenter and climate scientist, most recently at the British Antarctic Survey, said the current El Nino will “turbocharge” global temperatures. It comes after the UK experienced a string of heatwaves and shortage of rainfall over the summer, which created the driest July in 190 years and has pushed almost three-quarters (71.3%) of England and all of Wales into drought. This has put severe pressure on the water system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure.
Professor Stephen Belcher, the Met Office’s chief of science and technology, said: “This summer we have experienced heat waves across Europe reminding us of the effects of climate change, this large El Nino is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change.”
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