ASX expected to dip as AI rally lifts Wall Street, ANZ posts $1.9bn profit

Australian markets are bracing for a softer open after futures pointed to a decline, even as Wall Street benchmarks edged higher on the back of stronger-than-expected earnings reports from artificial intelligence firms. According to reporting from the Sydney Morning Herald, Australian sharemarket futures at 5.54 am AEST on Wednesday, 13 August 2026, indicated a fall of 19 points or 0.2 per cent at the open, following a 0.5 per cent loss on the ASX during Wednesday's session. Meanwhile, the local currency was trading at US70.62¢.

The global picture presented a starkly contrasting screen. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 added 0.3 per cent, marking its first gain since reaching its all-time high on Friday. The Nasdaq composite climbed 0.5 per cent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped less than 0.1 per cent. Artificial intelligence infrastructure providers heavily influenced the session. Nvidia climbed 3 per cent to become the single strongest force lifting the S&P 500, while Super Micro Computer jumped 19.6 per cent after reporting earnings per share that exceeded analyst expectations by 84 per cent alongside robust forward revenue and profit forecasts. Cloud-based AI computing provider CoreWeave also leaped 19 per cent on better-than-expected revenue and a milder loss.

"Demand is accelerating from customers as big businesses adopt AI."

Michael Intrator, CEO, via Sydney Morning Herald

Those gains reflect a turbulent period for AI-focused equities. Investors have scrutinized whether massive infrastructure spenders are yielding sufficient profits and productivity to justify soaring valuations. Bond markets also provided vital support. US Treasury yields eased after consumer price data showed cost-of-living increases of 3.4 per cent year-on-year, representing an improvement over the previous month's 3.5 per cent rate. Although inflation remains elevated, the deceleration prompted traders to scale back expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming September meeting. According to CME Group data, the probability of a September rate hike fell to 40 per cent, down from a coin-failing chance the prior day. The 10-year Treasury yield drifted down to 4.68 per cent, though it remains significantly elevated compared to levels seen before conflict involving Iran and its impact on oil and inflation fears.

Commodity markets reacted with muted volatility. Brent crude slipped 0.2 per cent to $US88.74 a barrel, though broader geopolitical pressures surrounding the Middle East continued to influence macro commentary. Economic Times coverage highlighted that sticky core PCE inflation at 3.3 per cent and rising Treasury yields pose continuing threats to high equity valuations globally, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that investors may be underestimating fiscal and geopolitical risks.

Domestically, the financial sector delivered fresh corporate updates. ANZ Bank reported cash profits of $1.9 billion for the latest quarter, marking a 1 per cent rise compared to the quarterly average for the March half. However, the same trading update revealed mounting headwinds in the residential housing sector. ANZ noted that home loan applications have fallen 12 per cent since the May budget, excluding applications processed through a government deposit guarantee scheme. High interest rates have pushed long-term mortgage rates to their highest levels in a year, weighing heavily on construction stocks in the United States such as D.R. Horton and PulteGroup as well as local property sentiment.

Asia-Pacific markets displayed divergent movements. South Korea’s Kospi index experienced wild swings, jumping 3.7 per cent according to the Sydney Morning Herald, driven by tech giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Economic Times reports further detailed that the Kospi had previously suffered severe corrections—falling into bear market territory with drops exceeding 10 per cent following earnings misses from chipmakers and retail protests over leveraged single-stock exchange-traded funds—before rebounding sharply on overseas tech earnings.

Key market drivers and turning points

• AI earnings momentum: Super Micro Computer and CoreWeave posted significant revenue and earnings beats, reassuring investors about enterprise technology demand.
• US inflation cooling: Consumer prices rose 3.4 per cent year-on-year, easing slightly from the prior month's 3.5 per cent reading.
• Fed rate expectations: CME Group data indicates the probability of a September rate hike dropped to 40 per cent.
• Domestic housing strain: ANZ reported a 12 per cent decline in home loan applications since the May budget, excluding government-guaranteed loans, amid elevated mortgage rates.

Chronology of the trading day

Time (AEST)	Event
5:54 am	ASX futures point to a 0.2 per cent decline at the open
Morning	Super Micro reports an earnings beat, shares surge 19.6 per cent
Late morning	CoreWeave reports stronger revenue, shares rise 19 per cent
Midday	US inflation data shows a 3.4 per cent annual increase
Afternoon	ANZ posts a $1.9 billion quarterly profit and reports a 12 per cent drop in non-guaranteed home loan applications
Evening (US close)	S&P 500 gains 0.3 per cent; Nasdaq rises 0.5 per cent

What to watch next

• Federal Reserve meeting (September): Market participants will monitor incoming economic data to see if the 40 per cent probability of a rate hike shifts further.
• Australian housing and banking metrics: Subsequent lending data and margin updates will clarify the durability of local property headwinds.
• Global technology updates: Ongoing corporate reporting from chipmakers and cloud providers will test whether AI infrastructure spending sustains high valuations.
• Geopolitical developments: Middle East tensions and oil price movements remain critical wildcards for bond yields and equity sentiment.

Investors now navigate a delicate balancing act. Overseas momentum is tethered to AI optimism and cooling inflation metrics, while domestic portfolios contend with cooling property lending and tighter credit conditions. The coming weeks will determine whether the expected local pullback proves to be a fleeting adjustment or part of a wider international reallocation.