Labour overtake Reform in major Westminster poll for first time in 16 months

The Labour Party has overtaken Reform UK in Westminster polling from a major firm for the first time in more than a year. According to a survey from More in Common, Andy Burnham's Labour Party polled at 28 percent, marking a four-point increase in a week and placing them four points ahead of Nigel Farage's Reform UK.

The poll of 2,061 UK voters was conducted from 24 July to 27 July. Nigel Farage's party polled at 24 percent, down two points in a week, while Kemi Badenoch's Tory Party polled at 22 percent with no change from the previous week. The Liberal Democrats polled at 12 percent, the Green Party at 8 percent, and other parties or independent candidates at 4 percent. The SNP, who stand only in Scotland, polled at 2 percent UK-wide.

Media additions

"It's only been a week since he entered office, but it's clear that momentum is on the Prime Minister's side. After a jam-packed week of high-profile policy announcements and media appearances, the Labour Party has surged in our weekly poll."

Luke Tryl, UK director, More in Common

Luke Tryl noted that this is the first time Labour has led in a major firm's poll since April 2025, when YouGov gave Labour a one-point lead, alongside a More in Common poll conducted around the same time that found a Labour-Reform tie. Tryl also stated that Labour now holds its highest vote share since the early months of the current government in 2024. He added that with both Reform and the Green Party dropping to their lowest vote share in months, the early focus on the cost of living appears to have appealed to voters that Labour has lost across left and right.

An estimate from Electoral Calculus's seat projection tool indicated that this result, if repeated at a General Election, would leave Labour as the largest party but approximately 25 seats short of an outright majority in the Commons. Tryl cautioned that it is too early to see if the lead will be sustainable as Burnham makes his first moves and gets further into the practicalities of governing.

A separate YouGov poll released on Friday gave Reform UK a two-point lead over Labour, putting Reform at 23 percent versus Labour's 21 percent. That YouGov survey also recorded the Tories at 20 percent, the Lib Dems at 14 percent, and the Greens at 13 percent, alongside 4 percent support for the far-right Restore Britain party and 3 percent for the SNP.

A Scottish commentator writing for The National argued that Burnham insults the nation by calling Manchester the north and displaying a replica Downing Street front door with "NORTH" emblazoned on it. The writer pointed out the geographical distances, noting that Manchester is roughly 165 miles north of London, but also 120 miles south of Berwick-on-Tweed, 175 miles south of Edinburgh, 330 miles from John O’Groats, and about 390 miles south of Lerwick. The commentary warned that Burnham's "northern powerhouse" project will damage the Scottish economy and that his devolution agenda might benefit from including an English parliament to reduce confusion about whether he sees himself as Prime Minister of the UK or primarily of England.

A petition organised by the Scottish Socialist Party and signed by many people at the east end of Princes Street on Saturday called on Prime Minister Andy Burnham to ensure wealthy Britons pay more tax. Signatories stated that instead of watching billionaires become trillionaires, the UK Government should use the funds to create jobs for young people—noting there are now more young Scots not in employment than the reverse—increase low wages, save the NHS from PFI contracts, deliver a social care model, and build 100,000 new council houses promised to the next generation of Scots. The petition highlighted that Britain is one of the most unequal societies in the world as measured by the Gini coefficient of income distribution, sending a message to both Burnham and John Swinney to reverse endemic inequality.

The commentary in The National suggested that one reason Burnham came out with an instant rejection of an independence referendum might be warnings from advisors that a sudden removal of Scottish resources, exports, and taxes could destabilise the English economy. The Scottish Government could potentially alleviate these concerns by proposing a "Memorandum of Agreement" to handle disengagement in a gradual and orderly manner following a Yes vote, such as tapering the reduction of electricity costs over several years to avoid disruption in the north of England.