Labour takes poll lead over Reform UK following Burnham bounce

British politics has experienced a sharp tremor as Labour surges ahead in national surveys, ending a dominant period for Reform UK.

Recent survey data highlights the sudden reversal. A Survation poll published on Tuesday morning placed Labour in the top spot with 26 per cent support, marking a one-point increase. Nigel Farage’s party slipped two points to trail at 24 per cent. This followed a More in Common release which showed Labour ahead with 28 per cent against Reform’s 24 per cent, alongside a YouGov survey registering both parties level at 22 per cent.

These findings bring a shattering end to Reform’s commanding run, which had seen the party lead in more than 300 consecutive surveys since April 2025.

Expert Analysis and the "Burnham Bounce"

Leading polling expert Lord Hayward noted that the surveys have transformed the political landscape much faster than anticipated. Speaking to The Independent, he highlighted the dual effect of the leadership change.

"There is no doubt there is a Burnham bounce and it has happened quicker than most of us expected. Part of it is Andy Burnham himself – his policies and communication. And part of it is that Keir Starmer is no longer there. That has coincided with a marked decline in support for Reform. They have real problems."

Lord Hayward, Polling expert, via AOL

Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice broke down the numbers further, explaining that the initial resignation announcement of Sir Keir Starmer was worth two points to Labour, while the opening week of the new administration added another four points. This combined movement delivered a six-point bounce.

However, Professor Curtice placed the figures into historical perspective, noting that almost every incoming prime minister receives an initial boost, with only Liz Truss missing out. Past transitions saw varying surges, including seven points for Gordon Brown, four points for Theresa May, six points for Boris Johnson, and four points for Rishi Sunak. Professor Curtice observed that Labour remains neck and neck with Reform overall, cautioning that the longevity of the current momentum remains uncertain.

At the same time, Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have experienced a mini revival, climbing to average 20 per cent for the first time in a year. Survation data put the Tories up two points to 21 per cent, drawing closer to Reform as disgruntled voters migrate back from Mr Farage’s party.

Troubles for Reform UK and the Clacton By-Election

Reform UK faces multiple simultaneous pressures. Mr Farage has found himself bogged down in a contentious local contest after resigning his parliamentary seat.

Adding to the pressure are external investigations. A scrutiny over a £5 million donation from crypto billionaire Christopher Harbourne hangs over the party leader, alongside separate inquiries into gifts and support received from convicted money launderer George Cottrell. Professor Curtice pointed out that since the Clacton vote was triggered on 6 July, Reform has dropped an average of three points nationally.

Despite the downward slide, a Reform spokesperson insisted the party remains unconcerned. We expected Labour to go above us, we are calm about it. Let’s see where everyone is by December, the spokesperson said. The representative also noted how quickly political fortunes can shift, recalling that two years ago Sir Keir Starmer was flying high in the polls before public sentiment turned.

Manchester Mayor By-Election and Local Stakes

The political drama extends directly to the regional level. Labour is eyeing a decisive victory in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, a contest triggered when Mr Burnham stepped down from local office to return to Westminster. When the campaign opened, Reform entered as narrow favourites following local election results on 7 May that gave Reform 30.8 per cent, Labour 23.6 per cent, the Greens 19 per cent, and the Conservatives 10.4 per cent.

More in Common polling now projects a complete reversal. The survey indicates Labour’s candidate Bev Craig is on course to secure 39 per cent of the vote, with Reform expected to capture around 19 per cent, the Greens on 14 per cent, and the Conservatives on 12 per cent. In a subsequent runoff, Labour is projected to claim roughly two-thirds of the vote.

Polling Shift at a Glance

Polling Organisation	Labour Support	Reform UK Support	Conservative Support
Survation (Tuesday)	26% (Up 1)	24% (Down 2)	21% (Up 2)
More in Common (Monday)	28%	24%	Not reported
YouGov (Monday)	22%	22%	Not reported

Addressing reporters during a visit to Portsmouth, Mr Burnham adopted a cautious tone regarding the fresh figures. I wouldn’t get carried away by any poll. I’m pleased to have made a start where hopefully I’ve connected with people, he stated. He added that his messaging focuses on national renewal and restoring optimism: And I am talking a lot about Britain believing again and getting its hope back, and I’m not going to apologise for that. I think we should have a bit more of a spring in our step.

Lord Hayward observed that the prime minister has effectively utilised the summer recess with high-visibility announcements and social media content, mirroring tactics previously employed by Mr Farage.

Attention now turns to the impending Greater Manchester mayoral contest and the fallout from the ongoing by-election campaigns as parties prepare for the parliamentary autumn term.