Labour tops polls for first time in 16 months after Burnham’s first week as PM

Labour has surged to the top of national opinion polls, claiming a lead over Reform UK for the first time in months. The shift follows the opening week of Andy Burnham’s administration in Downing Street, bringing an end to a prolonged period where Nigel Farage’s party held the top spot in survey metrics.

According to figures published in Metro, a survey carried out between July 24 and 27 shows Labour holding a four-point advantage over Reform. More in Common boss Luke Tryl observed the movement while noting the data represents a single snapshot in time.

Media additions

"Labour now leads for the first time since March of last year, and holds their highest vote share since the early months of this government in 2024."

Luke Tryl, More in Common, via Metro

Tryl added that momentum currently favours the administration, pointing to early policy focuses that appear to resonate across the political spectrum. Both Reform and the Green Party dropped to their lowest vote share in months, which Tryl attributed to an early government focus on the cost of living that appealed to voters lost across left and right.

Burnham chose to spend his first week in charge announcing measures intended to provide breathing space on household expenditure. The administration's initial steps concentrated heavily on specific financial interventions.

Key Cost-of-Living Measures Introduced

• Implementation of a transport fare cap across England, including a bus fare limit.
• Removal of specific taxes on domestic electricity bills by cutting VAT.
• Reductions in business liabilities for hospitality and entertainment venues, including a cut in business rates for pubs, clubs, and small music venues.

While the administration enjoys its newfound standing, rival political formations face internal turbulence. Reform has experienced intense media scrutiny regarding its internal accounts following the 2024 election. A Parliamentary Standards investigation was previously launched concerning party leader Nigel Farage and his decision not to declare a gift ahead of that election. Shifting dynamics led Farage to announce his resignation as an MP to trigger a local contest in his constituency, though every other party reportedly declined to take part.

Wider domestic and international developments continue to capture attention alongside Westminster shifts. Britain’s foreign secretary is to indicate upcoming priorities regarding global financial institutions and environmental initiatives by taking up a seat on the board at the World Bank, placing the climate crisis and overseas development at the heart of UK international relations. Meanwhile, international events unfold across multiple continents, including ongoing legal and extradition proceedings, diplomatic negotiations, and regional electoral contests abroad.

As the administration transitions from its opening announcements into routine governance, further political tests lie ahead. Burnham has also hinted at a new approach to council tax, vowed there will be no early general election before 2029, and faced scrutiny regarding public services.

What to Watch Next

• Further tracking data to determine whether the government's polling advantage remains sustainable as Burnham gets further into the practicalities of governing.
• Developments in local parliamentary contests and by-elections.
• Upcoming regional electoral ballots scheduled for later in the week, including polls to elect the next mayor of Greater Manchester to replace Andy Burnham.