Reform UK falls to third in Ashcroft poll with 18% support

Reform UK’s share of the vote has slipped to 18 percent in the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, leaving the party in third place behind Labour and the Conservatives. The drop, announced on the eve of the Clacton by‑election, sharpens the pressure on Nigel Farage as he seeks to regain a Westminster seat while his party wrestles with a series of scandals and a shrinking voter base.

The Ashcroft survey shows Labour at 27 percent, up six points, while the Conservatives have risen two points to 23 percent. Reform’s three‑point fall from the previous month’s poll marks a reversal of the momentum it enjoyed earlier in the year, when it led Labour by ten points.

Why the slide matters now

The timing of the poll is critical. The Clacton by‑election, scheduled for Thursday, is being framed as a “people versus the establishment” showdown, with Farage positioning himself as an anti‑elite crusader. Yet the poll’s figures suggest that any surge in anti‑establishment sentiment is being absorbed by Labour’s new prime minister, Andy Burnham, whose government has been credited with a “bounce in popularity” in the same report.

Labour’s gain also benefits the new Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, who has received praise for her recent performance, according to the poll commentary. Both opposition leaders stand to profit from Reform’s faltering numbers as the election approaches.

Poll landscape and recent trends

The Ashcroft poll is not an isolated snapshot. A “poll of polls” compiled by Election Maps UK puts Labour at 25.6 percent and Reform at 24.3 percent, confirming the narrowing gap that began after the parties were neck‑and‑neck on July 24. Since then, a succession of surveys has pushed Labour ahead.

A YouGov poll released on Tuesday mirrors the same direction, with Labour at 24 percent, Reform down to 22 percent and the Conservatives at 21 percent. These figures, together with the Ashcroft results, illustrate a broader shift away from Reform and toward the two mainstream parties.

Financial cloud over Farance and Reform

Compounding the electoral challenge, Reform UK has been under scrutiny for the financial arrangements of its leader. In April, it emerged that Farage failed to declare a £5 million gift from Thailand‑based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before he stood for parliament in 2024. The parliamentary standards commissioner opened an investigation, which was paused when Farage resigned his seat to trigger the Clacton by‑election.

Should Farage win the by‑election, the standards probe will restart and could lead to a suspension from Parliament if the rules are found to have been breached. The unresolved financial issue is cited in the Ashcroft coverage as a “reality check” for Reform.

Clacton by‑election dynamics

Farage is expected to be re‑elected, but his only serious challenger is Count Binface, after Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and Restore Britain declined to field candidates. The absence of major party opponents has turned the race into a de‑facto personal contest, yet the poll suggests that even a victory may not translate into broader national support for Reform.

Timeline of key developments

• Start of 2024 – Reform leads Labour by ten points in early polling.
• April 2024 – Disclosure of an undeclared £5 million gift to Farage surfaces.
• July 24 2024 – Labour and Reform tied in polls.
• Late July 2024 – Series of polls put Labour ahead.
• Recent Lord Ashcroft poll – Labour 27 percent, Conservatives 23 percent, Reform 18 percent.
• Clacton by‑election – Held on Thursday, with Farage aiming to reclaim his seat.

What to watch next

• The outcome of the Clacton by‑election on Thursday and whether Farage regains his Westminster seat.
• Re‑activation of the parliamentary standards investigation into Farage’s undeclared gift.
• Further poll releases ahead of the next general election, especially any shifts in Labour’s "Burnham bounce".
• Potential strategic responses from the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch as they seek to capitalize on Reform’s slump.

As the Ashcroft poll reveals, Reform UK’s position in the electorate is waning at a moment when both Labour and the Conservatives are tightening their grasps on undecided voters. The upcoming by‑election will test whether Farage can convert personal popularity into party revival, or whether the broader trend of declining support will cement Reform’s third‑place status in the weeks to come.