Nebius Stock Jumps 124% in 6 Months: Time to Buy, Hold or Sell

Nebius Group N.V. Shares surged 124.1% over a recent six-month period, crushing broader market returns and igniting a fierce debate on Wall Street over whether to buy, hold, or sell the surging AI cloud infrastructure provider. The blistering momentum comes as artificial intelligence workloads outpace global compute capacity, pushing the company to accelerate its capital expenditure plans, expand its full-stack infrastructure footprint across the US and UK, and forge multi-billion-dollar deals with tech giants.

The company's financial results reflect an extraordinary operational scaling. According to reporting highlighted by Foreign Policy Journal, Nebius posted first-quarter revenue of $399 million, representing a 684% increase compared to the same period a year earlier. Follow-up reporting from TradingView noted that group revenue later hit $582 million with annualized run-rate revenue reaching $3 billion by the end of June, driven by massive demand that left the company effectively selling out of capacity as fast as it came online.

Media additions

In response, Nebius has reportedly hiked prices on selected NVIDIA GPU instances by roughly 17% to 21%.

The aggressive expansion is not limited to pricing adjustments. Nebius announced a £1.7 billion investment to build out UK capacity with three new NVIDIA-powered deployments reaching 65 MW by 2027, aligning with the UK Government’s AI Opportunities Action Plan, according to official Nebius newsroom disclosures. High-profile domestic customers such as Revolut have rebuilt their AI stacks around Nebius infrastructure to power real-time fraud detection and customer support operations.

Wall Street opinion remains sharply divided on whether the valuation is sustainable. BNP Paribas upgraded Nebius to 'Outperform' and hiked its price target to $399 from $260, predicting the firm could approach $22 billion in annual recurring revenue exiting 2027, as detailed by TradingView. Conversely, bearish voices such as Rothschild & Co. Redburn maintain a 'Sell' rating with an $84 target, pointing to the intense capital expenditure cycle required to sustain growth.

Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora offered a nuanced industry perspective, warning that many standard neoclouds renting raw GPU capacity will collapse once chip scarcity ends, but explicitly placing Nebius in a more durable category he terms "neoscalers," as analyzed by 24/7 Wall St. Neoscalers combine hardware scale with proprietary software stacks, major long-term customer contracts—including multi-billion-dollar agreements with Meta and Microsoft—and secured power supplies. Nebius reported more than $40 billion in additional contracted revenue from investment-grade clients.

To fund this heavy growth trajectory, Nebius raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $20 billion to $25 billion, up from earlier estimates of $16 billion to $20 billion, according to data compiled by The Globe and Mail. The funding strategy relies on asset-backed debt structures, customer prepayments, and proceeds from a recent $5.75 billion convertible-note offering. Management cautioned that quarterly EBITDA margins will fluctuate as investments precede revenue recognition from back-half capacity additions.

What to Watch Next

• Utilization and Customer Mix: Tracking how quickly newly deployed European and UK capacity attracts paying enterprise workloads.
• Spot Pricing Adoption: Monitoring customer uptake of newly introduced live spot GPU pricing and capacity rebate programs reported by Yahoo Finance.
• Upcoming Earnings and Guidance Resets: Watching for updated segment disclosures and management commentary on 2027 annual recurring revenue trajectories during upcoming quarterly earnings reports.