Europe

On the one hand, the de-escalation. On the other, the Indian variant. The long-awaited relaxation comes accompanied by a good dose of caution. It is not an easy combination, but it is the one they are currently facing the countries of Europe that begin to relax their restrictions. Above all, the UK, which this Monday entered a new de-escalation phase looking askance at the Indian variant, which seems to be gaining ground in a worrying way in that country.

Is its full reopening, scheduled for June 21, in danger? It is in the air. Y what happens there can serve as a “warning to sailors” for the rest. Because this variant has already been detected in 44 countries of the world, and since last week it has entered the category of “variants of concern” for WHO.

For now, scientists advising the British government have already warned that la B1617 (that’s what it’s called) it is much more transmissible than the B117 variant, which emerged there in December (the one that we all know as British and they know as the Kentish variant, because it was where it was first detected).

They warn that it can even displace it and become dominant, with what this would entail in the face of vaccines and the spread of the virus. The British Minister for Health, Matt Hancock, confirmed it this Sunday. Say what India is “quite likely” to become the dominant variant in the UK.

For now, it is located mainly in the north of the country, with an outbreak in the city of Bolton, which has one of the highest infection rates in the UK and where there is already talk of “widespread community transmission of B1617.2”. But, according to the British newspaper The Guardian, New locations are being detected every day. The latter, in Essex, Cambridge and London.

If until now the race was between the virus and vaccines, now, along with the virus, there is also the Indian variant and the relaxation of restrictions. So that all efforts are focused on speeding up vaccines. The United Kingdom has just modified its vaccination plan in this regard.

The variant india it is more transmissible than the British, that has already been made clear by the committee of experts that advises Boris Johnson, SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies). On May 5, the committee warned that “a highly transmissible variant… /… could lead to a very significant wave infections, potentially larger than that seen in January 2021 if no intervention is carried out in this regard”. Boris Johnson himself announced last Friday: “We believe that this variant is more transmissible than the previous ones.”

But the question on the table is: How much more transmissible? From what we know so far, the answer is not entirely clear. Epidemiologists consider ranges of between 40% to 60% of greater transmissibility with respect to the British one. In its meeting last week, the SAGE assured that there is “A realistic chance that it is up to 50% more transmissible”, which would be a lot.

The model of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine calculates that a variant 50% more transmissible could trigger a third wave of covid with a peak of deaths of 1,000 a day by the end of July. These are figures that, in the United Kingdom, have not been seen since February.

The uncertainty regarding the situation is reminiscent of last year, when the British variant was detected and all the alarms went off. But now, luckily, the situation is not even close: in the UK there are 20 million people with the two doses of the vaccine. And 70% of its population has received a dose. There are barely a thousand hospitalized with covid throughout the country at the moment. Contagions, serious illness and deaths from covid have plummeted.

But facing this new variant, above all, that other part of the population that has not yet received the vaccine is of concern. Because if the Indian variant continues to grow strong and its high contagiousness, hospitalizations could grow in a very short time. The British Health Minister has warned that the new variant it could “spread like wildfire” among the unvaccinated.

In a recent interview with Sky News, Matt Hancock has assured that there is a “high degree of confidence” that existing vaccines work well against the new variant, alluding to “new and very preliminary data” from the University of Oxford. And a few days ago, the EMA claimed the same.

But Hancock also explained that the vast majority of those hospitalized at Bolton are people who had refused the vaccine. They worry – those who have not yet been vaccinated and those who do not want to be vaccinated – because among them, this new variant can spread “like a forest fire”, according to his words.

So, The United Kingdom has just modified its vaccination plans, to try to fully immunize all the most vulnerable people. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced last Friday that vaccination protocols were being modified – until now focused on inoculating the first dose of the vaccine to as many people as possible – to be able to quickly administer second doses people over 50, and vaccinate all the “vulnerable” who have not wanted to do so until now.

Is about increase complete vaccination. Y It is already starting with the areas most hit by the variant, like Bolton. Considering that the protection of a vaccine comes two to three weeks after receiving the second dose, some experts have doubts about this strategy. Because, then, the variant may have already spread to other areas in which it currently has little effect.

At the moment, the UK is following closely in his footsteps. But it seems that the variant runs more. Last week 1,313 cases were detected there, more than double the previous one, which was 520. “The speed of growth is worrying”, says the British government, which is redoubling efforts in areas where its incidence is greater.

Yet it is not clear to what extent this new variant has spread globally, because most countries lack the sequencing capacity that the British have. Although we do know, for example, that is spreading across South Asia So what countries like Singapore have closed schools and institutes until the end of May, given the increase in cases of this variant, because health authorities also believe that it affects children more.

In Spain, for the moment, isolated cases have been detected. And all of them, imported. The first was detected three weeks ago and there are currently about 30 cases. The vast majority, in Galicia. Because 21 of the positives are crew members of two ships that were detected upon arrival at port, and They are confined to the ship itself or admitted to hospitals in Vigo. The last case of this variant was detected this Monday, in Cáceres, and like the rest, it has been quickly isolated.