Scientists warn 2026 could become hottest year as El Niño strengthens
Climate scientists warn that 2026 faces a rapidly rising probability of eclipsing 2024 as the hottest year as an intensifying El Niño builds upon record ocean heat.
Asiaone reports that the world’s oceans are the hottest ever recorded for this time of year and that the brief lull in record-breaking heat this summer may be an illusion. While it may seem like the planet is baking through a record-shattering summer from hell, it is not quite in record territory yet, according to climate statistics showing 2026 is currently the third-hottest year, behind 2024 and 2025.
Why the odds are rising
Because of a one-two punch of accelerated human-caused global warming and a supersized El Niño, scientists say there is an increasing chance that by the end of the year, 2026 could eke out the crown for the hottest year on record, eclipsing 2024, or at least come close. Even if this year sets the record, it will not last long, as scientists agree it is a near lock that 2027 will beat out any modern year for heat.
"because the world was on fire in different ways. The world is now on fire again with climate change in a way that's increasingly difficult to ignore"
Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist, via AsiaOne
Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, has been updating his probabilistic model nearly every month. He calculated a 35 per cent chance that 2026 will pass 2024 as the hottest year on record, up from only seven per cent in March. What is changing outlooks, according to Hausfather, is the increasingly strong forecasts for a record-setting El Niño that will be off the charts.
Former top NASA climate scientist James Hansen predicted that 2026 will edge out 2024 at the end of the year. Hansen noted that the world's daily sea surface temperature tied 2024 starting in May and has been record hot nearly every day since June.
"there's generally a month-and-a-half lag between heat showing up in oceans and then being reflected in the global average temperature"
James Hansen, former NASA climate scientist, via AsiaOne
With oceans covering more than 70 per cent of the globe's surface, Hansen explained that the entire globe is about ready to start shattering records. About 82 per cent of the world's ocean surface is overheated with marine heat waves this year, according to Europe's Copernicus climate service.
Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration previously forecast a 66 per cent chance that 2026 would be the fourth hottest and only a 0.1 per cent chance it would be number one for warmth by year's end. NOAA monitoring chief Russell Vose indicated those odds would rise when NOAA finished its analysis from July.
Understanding the drivers
El Niño is a natural temporary warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific that heats up the globe's average temperature and warps weather extremes across the planet. Most forecasts have El Niño becoming the strongest in history, releasing pent-up heat from the ocean. Zachary Labe, a climate scientist at Climate Central, explained that because greenhouse gases trap heat and 90 per cent of it goes into the world's seas, there is more heat to release, and ocean heat content keeps setting new record highs.
Climate scientists emphasize that what has been seen this summer cannot be blamed entirely on El Niño because its impacts do not truly kick in for a few more months. The fires, heat, and extremes dominating the summer are what scientists have long warned about from the burning of coal, oil, and gas.
"The driver of the record warmth is climate change in the background. And it's a much larger — much, much larger — contribution than El Niño, which is just a tenth to two-tenths of a degree on top of that long-term trend"
Zachary Labe, climate scientist, via AsiaOne
Traditional industrial pollution creating soot and smog, which normally cools the planet and masks greenhouse gas-triggered warming, is decreasing, according to Hansen. He added that the climate might also be reacting to greenhouse gases more strongly than scientists anticipated.
Global impacts and what happens next
This summer's heat waves have hit hard in places where people are unaccustomed to triple-digit temperatures. Samantha Burgess, global strategic lead at Copernicus climate service, noted that the heat has been especially noticeable at night, impairing health and work productivity. Burgess pointed to Europe, which experienced an exceptional heat wave in May, another in June, two in July, and ongoing heat in France and Spain, alongside shocking heat waves in North America, shockingly hot conditions in South America, and devastating heat waves in India. Burgess highlighted that while heat waves happen somewhere every year, the frequency and extent in Europe are very unusual.
Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer stated that these events provide vivid pictures of what climate change is doing, increasing the probability of unprecedented summers around the world.
