Polls suggest AfD could win Saxony-Anhalt, minorities fear deportations

Polls suggest the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) could win the upcoming state election in Saxony‑Anhalt on 6 September 2026, a result that would mark the first time a far‑right party governs a German state. The prospect is unsettling for many residents, especially those who have sought asylum in the eastern region. The election has become a daily reality for migrants, who fear that a new government might enforce the AfD’s hard‑line stance on immigration, including immediate deportations.

Earlier this year, a Saudi man drove his car into a crowded Christmas market in Magdeburg, killing six people and injuring hundreds. Authorities described the attacker as an anti‑Islam activist sympathetic to the far right. The incident sparked a surge in racist incidents, and by mid‑2025 the number of reported insults and attacks matched the total for 2024. The rise in hostility has intensified the sense of insecurity among migrants and people of colour in the state.

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The AfD’s Saxony‑Anhalt manifesto promises a “complete, 180‑degree” overhaul of migration policy. It calls for separate schooling for refugee children, redirecting funds earmarked for integration to a remigration unit, and ending recognition of Ukrainians as war refugees. The party also proposes changes to the curriculum, favouring a focus on Otto von Bismarck over the Holocaust, and vows to exhaust all legal means to restrict the influence of Islam.

Fatemeh, 44, fled Iran with her son after he was stopped by police during a protest over Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody. Now living in Saxony‑Anhalt, she watches her son excel as an athlete and mechanic. She fears that a new AfD‑led government could order her and her son’s deportation, and as a converted Christian she worries that returning to Iran could expose her to the death penalty.

“I worry about it every day,” she said. “I can’t stop thinking about my son and what might happen to us.”

Lamsa, an umbrella group for migrant organisations, has urged Germany’s other 15 states to prepare for a possible influx of refugees if the AfD wins. In June, the group called on the states to take in refugees from Saxony‑Anhalt as a precautionary measure, citing the heightened social climate. “We don’t know what will happen after the elections,” said Ketevan Asatiani‑Hermann, chair of the Advisory Council for Integration and Migration in Magdeburg, warning that the state’s depopulation could accelerate.

“For those with migrant backgrounds, it feels like this vote is about their right to exist and their security.”

Foreign nationals make up about 9% of Saxony‑Anhalt’s population, compared with roughly 15% nationwide. In 2024, 27.1% of doctors working in the state’s hospitals did not hold German citizenship, and many rural regions would struggle to provide comprehensive care if those doctors left. The state’s average age is 48.2, the highest in Germany, and roughly 80% of residents with a migration background are considering leaving, according to Asatiani‑Hermann.

“Migrants make up a huge part of healthcare. If you were to take them out, the whole system would collapse,” said Hamid, a paramedic originally from Iran.

“They think: ‘If we get rid of this, we will feel free.’ But I think it will be the other way around,” said Rabbi Igor Mendel Itkin of the Magdeburg synagogue, describing the AfD manifesto’s plans to restrict Islam.

The synagogue community in Magdeburg has expressed deep unease about an AfD majority, noting that the party’s campaign promises could jeopardise funding and affect the Ukrainian refugees who joined the congregation. Rabbi Itkin observed that the manifesto does not mention the Jewish community but includes measures to restrict Islam. Maria Schubert, a synagogue community member, said, “If they win, we don’t know how we will act with them. For me, it’s unimaginable.” The outcome on 6 September will determine whether Saxony‑Anhalt becomes a testing ground for the AfD’s hard‑right agenda and whether other German states will follow suit.

“If they win, we don’t know how we will act with them. For me, it’s unimaginable.”