Calgary ranks as top Canadian real estate market for 2026 despite headwinds

Calgary has claimed the title of Canada's top-performing real estate market, defying broad economic headwinds and demographic shifts that are cooling urban expansion elsewhere across the country, according to reports. Survey respondents once again ranked Calgary as the top market to watch, noting that capital continues moving west despite lingering wariness over the cyclical nature of the local economy and its historical sensitivity to oil price fluctuations.

According to forecasts, Calgary's real gross domestic product growth is expected to accelerate while population growth begins to taper following historic migration surges. New home construction in the city reached record highs, and purpose-built rental stock increased significantly, though vacancy rates shifted upward. Developers and market participants are adapting to tighter funding guidelines by acquiring existing assets, improving operating models, and utilizing artificial intelligence in call centres. Meanwhile, the suburban office market continues to substantially outperform the downtown core, which has faced headwinds from technology sector downsizing and energy industry consolidation. Calgary has responded by expanding its program to convert underused downtown office space into housing or hotels.

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Across the country, the structural divergence between markets like Calgary and high-cost urban centers highlights deep systemic pressures driven by municipal policy frameworks and regulatory environments. While cities like Toronto struggle with prohibitive development charges, restrictive zoning practices, and a dead condominium market, Montreal has maintained relative stability through a prevalence of missing-middle housing such as duplexes, triplexes, and row houses. Unlike many North American jurisdictions, Montreal levies no impact fees on new housing construction, and its housing supply adjusts more smoothly to price increases.

Economic forecasts indicate that Calgary's real GDP growth will rise while population increases moderate from earlier historic surges recorded by national statistical agencies. Although the local economy maintains dependence on oil prices, market participants observe a resilient retail sector particularly benefiting from suburban and mixed-use developments linked to recent population gains. Industrial market observers note a prevailing shift toward mid-size spaces rather than large industrial properties amid rising construction costs and economic uncertainty. Furthermore, the municipal Prairie Economic Gateway initiative is advancing through land-use approval stages, with commercial readiness anticipated in the coming years.

In contrast to western urban centers, Ontario markets face distinct pressures. Toronto continues to grapple with housing affordability constraints, high consumer debt levels, and sluggish mortgage rate declines that collectively dampen residential demand. While institutional investors have increased their footprint by acquiring distressed assets and unsold inventory at deep discounts, the condominium segment remains depressed. Concurrently, major transit infrastructure investments across the Greater Toronto Area are actively shaping land values and encouraging transit-oriented development patterns.

Montreal presents a different economic and regulatory model characterized by greater housing market elasticity and a notable absence of municipal development impact charges. The predominance of missing-middle housing, coupled with pragmatic municipal planning approaches and streamlined permitting processes, has helped shield the region from the acute affordability crises seen in other major metropolitan areas. Rental construction in Montreal remains a primary driver of housing starts, supported by provincial rental board guidelines and steady demand despite modest regional GDP growth forecasts.