HSBC CEO Says Alternative Routes Could Make Strait of Hormuz 'Redundant' in Five Years

Heavy reliance on the Strait of Hormuz could become a thing of the past within half a decade, according to Insurancejournal reporting on remarks delivered in Dubai on Tuesday, 20 October 2026. Georges Elhedery, group chief executive of Arise News, told an audience at the ET EnergyWorld forum that ongoing conflict involving Iran has exposed the profound vulnerability of international energy supplies, prompting Gulf states to channel resources into alternative logistics networks, pipelines, and export ports.

The conflict has laid bare the world's dependence on the narrow waterway, which historically handled approximately a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, as noted by Ground. While expressing hope for a diplomatic resolution, Elhedery emphasized that capital expenditure on pipelines leading directly to alternative ports will allow the region to weather fallout and maintain long-term economic growth, according to Türkiye Today.

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This massive infrastructural pivot occurs against a turbulent macroeconomic backdrop. Drawing on data from the Dubai-based construction market intelligence platform MEED, a recent Business Today report highlights that the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey currently offer $872 billion in individual project packages as part of a wider $1.4 trillion planned infrastructure pipeline. Following 3.3% growth, the World Bank forecast a deep economic contraction of 1.3% in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan region, though a strong, albeit uneven, rebound is expected in 2027.

Alternative transport corridors are gaining renewed urgency as governments look beyond maritime chokepoints. Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu stated that Türkiye is pitching its Development Road project—running from Iraq's Faw Port through Türkiye to Europe—as a strategic alternative that could reduce transit times and bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Türkiye Today reports. Concurrently, discussions between Jordan and Iraq are advancing the Basra-Aqaba oil pipeline to secure Red Sea access for Iraqi oil, though some local factions remain opposed.

For financial institutions and regional planners, the focus now turns toward execution. Observers will monitor whether the multi-trillion-dollar project pipeline transitions from unawarded proposals into operational physical capacity, how public-private financing models will navigate near-term economic contractions, and whether upcoming diplomatic talks can stabilize security across the Gulf.