Eritrea visa ban will fail to stop small boat arrivals, experts warn

Immigration and asylum experts have warned that the British government's newly announced threat to impose sweeping visa bans on Eritrean nationals will fail to curb the rising number of small boat arrivals crossing the Channel. The ultimatum, issued by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, targets a country that currently accounts for the largest share of small boat crossings. According to figures compiled by The i Paper, Eritrea represents 18 per cent of all individuals arriving via small boats in the year ending in June. While officials argue that return arrangements are critical for removing individuals with no legal right to remain, researchers contend that punitive visa restrictions miss the fundamental drivers of displacement.

Despite the government's insistence that penalties will force compliance, migration researchers emphasize that the overwhelming majority of Eritrean asylum seekers are found to have genuine claims. Migration Observatory senior researcher Mihnea Cuibus noted that even if the policy successfully increases returns, its overall impact on small boat arrivals will remain negligible, according to The i Paper.

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The policy mirrors previous warnings issued toward Angola, Namibia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. While those nations ultimately averted full sanctions by agreeing to cooperate with the Home Office, experts argue the geopolitical situation in Eritrea is vastly different, rooted in indefinite mandatory national service, systematic detention, and human rights abuses.

Sile Reynolds, head of asylum advocacy at Freedom from Torture, condemned the strategy.

"Further restricting access to visas will not stop refugees from fleeing Eritrea, it will simply force more of them to make dangerous journeys"

Sile Reynolds, Head of Asylum Advocacy at Freedom from Torture, via The i Paper

Reynolds added that staff regularly witness the severe physical and psychological trauma borne by those escaping the east African state. She warned that establishing a returns agreement risks sending vulnerable individuals straight back into the hands of persecutors, echoing concerns about the broader erosion of humanitarian obligations.

Meanwhile, the Eritrean embassy has pushed back against London's approach, accusing the UK of showing no interest in meaningful dialogue and alleging that British authorities extend blanket asylum to undermine the state.

Jon Featonby, chief policy analyst at the Refugee Council, emphasized that it is imperative that this policy only targets the Eritrean authorities, and does not undermine the UK's moral and legal duty to provide protection to those who need it.