Scottish independence support surges to 65% if Nigel Farage becomes PM

Support for Scottish independence would soar to 65% if Nigel Farage were to enter Downing Street, according to a poll published by The National Scot.

The Norstat survey, commissioned by Believe in Scotland, reveals a sharp polarization in constitutional sentiment when tied directly to Westminster leadership. Under standard polling conditions, decided voters divide 52% in favor of independence and 48% against. However, introducing the prospect of a government led by the right-wing party under Farage shifts the dynamic significantly, driving Yes support up to 65% while No supporters shrink to 35%, according to The National Scot.

Media additions

The findings mirror earlier data. A previous survey conducted by Find Out Now put baseline Yes support at 52% among decided voters, which similarly climbed to 60% when respondents considered a hypothetical Farage premiership, as reported by The National Scot.

Reaction from political figures in Scotland was swift. Scottish Greens co-leader Gillian Mackay issued a sharp condemnation of the prospect:

"We already have evidence that the people of Scotland want independence. This can be easily found just by looking at the election results in May. It’s no wonder that so many people are opposed to the idea of an extreme and racist Reform government in Westminster, but it is a real and terrifying possibility."

Gillian Mackay, Scottish Greens co-leader, via The National Scot

Mackay added that the polling demonstrates how many citizens would take a leap of faith to reject what she termed the far-right, according to The National Scot.

The new polling figures coincide with heightened legislative activity in Edinburgh. MSPs voted overwhelmingly in favor of a motion affirming that Scotland is a nation with the right to decide its own future, passing 84 votes to 18. Reform MSPs notably walked out of the parliamentary chamber during the debate, as detailed by The National Scot.

Observers note that while Farage has repeatedly spoken out against holding another Scottish independence referendum, his rising political prominence continues to shape the constitutional debate north of the border, according to The National Scot.

Additional polling context from Ipsos shows that among those who currently say they would vote No in an immediate referendum, 16% think that if Reform UK was elected to government at the next General Election, this would make them more likely to vote Yes, while 61% say it would make no difference. In contrast, just 4% of current No voters think that if the Conservative Party was elected at the next General Election this would make them more likely to vote Yes. Furthermore, 55% of currently undecided voters say that a Reform UK government at Westminster would make them more likely to vote Yes, compared with 4% who say this would be more likely to make them vote No and 25% who say it would make no difference, according to Ipsos.

The broader political landscape highlights significant shifts in voter intentions across the UK. According to YouGov polling reported by Al Jazeera, Reform UK would be Britain's largest political party if a general election were held, winning 271 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, leaving the ruling Labour Party second at 178 seats in a hung parliament. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has faced political pressures including slow economic growth, policy U-turns on welfare reform, and international trade challenges involving US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, as reported by Al Jazeera.

In Scotland, the political dynamic involves the SNP maintaining its lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, alongside rising support for Reform UK, which reached 18% for constituency votes and 17% on regional list voting in Ipsos polling. Meanwhile, Scottish Labour's support has experienced a decline, according to Ipsos.

Further political shifts and electoral consequences are anticipated as devolved parliaments and Westminster navigate ongoing changes in public opinion, local election results, and positioning ahead of upcoming parliamentary contests.