Met Office says North Sea heatwave amplified Storm Babet damage

New joint research conducted by the Met Office and the University of Reading has determined that a prolonged marine heatwave occurring in the North Sea contributed significantly to the intensification of the impacts associated with Storm Babet. The storm, which occurred from 18 to 21 October 2023, caused widespread disruption, and the findings highlight the role environmental conditions played in amplifying those effects.

Current UK weather outlook

Rather cloudy today across northern Scotland and Northern Ireland with some light showers. Dry with plenty of warm sunny spells elsewhere. Feeling very warm in the south with light winds.

Media additions

Cloudy in the north tonight with outbreaks of light drizzle in places. Largely dry elsewhere with clear spells and a few fog patches. Showers possible in East Anglia. Staying cloudy and cool in the far north on Wednesday with light showers possible. Dry and sunny elsewhere with some very warm sunshine.

Staying settled through to Friday with patchy cloud and showers in the north. Very warm in the south. Outbreaks of more widespread rain push into the north on Saturday. This period looks like being largely changeable, with many parts likely to see some rain at times. Rain will spread southeast across most if not all parts of the UK through this weekend, with some showers following. Further bands of rain look likely to spread southeast next week, interspersed with sunny spells and some showers. Confidence becomes lower as we approach the turn of the month, but there are hints that high pressure could return for a time, which would mean dry conditions resuming, especially in the south. Winds will be mostly light or moderate, but occasionally fresh or strong around some coasts, mainly in the north.

Temperature trends and August outlook

Temperatures will be near or above normal, warmest in the south, and perhaps becoming very warm again by the start of August. Higher pressure is considered generally more likely than lower pressure through August. This means settled and dry weather will likely prevail, especially across the south. Some rain is still likely at times, especially across northern parts. Although many areas may see mainly dry weather for the much of the period, occasional summertime thunderstorms are possible on some days given the right ingredients. Temperatures near the seasonal norm on Sunday, then trending above next week.

European weather context

Local forecasts are based on weather forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF and the Danish Meteorological Institute, DMI. At the Icelandic Meteorological Office, automatic statistical methods are used to localise such forecasts.

West and southwest 3-10 m/s today. Dry in North- and East-Iceland with sunny periods, but foggy and light drizzle in the southwest and west parts. Temperature 10 to 23 deg C, warmest in the east parts.

On Wednesday: Becoming South and Southwest 8-15 m/s with rain, but mainly dry in the eastern part until evening. Temperatures from 11 to 23 degrees C, warmest in East Iceland. On Thursday: Southwest 5-13. Intermittent drizzle in western part, isolated showers of rain in the Northeast, but dry in the Southeast. Temperature 10 to 20 degrees C, warmest in East Iceland.

On Friday: Northwest 5-13 and light precipitation in North and East Iceland, but widely fair weather in the the South and West part. Temperatures 8 to 18 degrees C, warmest south of the central highlands. On Saturday: North and Northeast 3-8m/s and fair in the South and West parts. Northwest 8-13 in the Northeast with cloudy but mainly dry weather. On Sunday and Monday: Rather light northerly wind. Partly cloudy in the North and East parts and light precipitation in some places. Mainly fair in the southern part. Temp. From 7 deg. By the Northeast coast, up to 17 deg. In the Southwest.