US futures dip as yields surge to 19‑month high and oil climbs

Wall Street opened Tuesday under the weight of a 19‑month spike in Treasury yields and a fresh surge in crude prices, sending major U.S. Futures lower and sharpening market nerves.

At 9:30 a.m. London time, Dow Jones futures were down 72 points at 53,472, the S&P 500 futures slipped 31.75 points to 7,737, and the Nasdaq 100 futures fell 230.50 points to about 29,865.50. The moves mirrored overnight index closures that saw the Dow drop 272.63 points to 53,459.78, the S&P 500 lose 40.70 points to 7,745.06, the Nasdaq Composite slip 84.25 points to 26,644.91 and the Nasdaq 100 slide 50.76 points to 29,995.38.

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Both U.S. WTI and Brent crude surged roughly 1 % – WTI trading near $85.35 a barrel in one report and around $84.40 a barrel in another – while Brent hovered above $91.42 per barrel. The rally followed the expiration of a 60‑day cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, a development that has kept the Strait of Hormuz in the spotlight.

"We continue to see risks that Treasury yields could move higher from here,"

Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR

Howard linked the yield climb to lingering inflation uncertainty, a higher‑than‑expected neutral rate and persistent fiscal deficits. Schwab’s note added that the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee minutes – due Wednesday afternoon – could bring more drama, noting three dissenting votes at the last meeting and public comments from dissenters emphasizing near‑term hikes.

Oil’s upward thrust was described as “no Iran resolution in sight” and concern that the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, warned that President Trump’s recent remarks threatening Oman – a key mediator – keep diplomatic pathways tenuous.

U.S. Investors also kept an eye on a slate of economic releases slated for Tuesday, including building permits, capacity utilisation, export prices, housing starts, import prices, industrial production, pending home sales and TIC flows. Earlier U.S. Data had been somewhat encouraging, with the Empire manufacturing index and the NAHB housing index both beating forecasts.

The earnings calendar remained busy. Companies such as Amer Sports, Baidu, Hesai Group, Home Depot, Jack & Henry, Keysight Technologies, Klarna, La‑Z‑Boy, Pony AI, Toll Brothers, VNET Group and ZTO Express were slated to report. A Bloomberg tally noted that 69 % of the 455 S&P 500 constituents covered had surpassed top‑line estimates, while 87 % beat bottom‑line expectations.

"Despite the potential risks related to the Iran conflict, this continues to be a market driven by strong earnings growth, which continues to be fueled by investment in the AI infrastructure buildout,"

Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at SCFR

Peterson’s view echoed a broader sentiment that robust earnings, especially in AI‑related sectors, are cushioning the market even as oil, yields and volatility present headwinds.

Across the globe, the ripple effects were visible. In India, the BSE recorded 2,267 decliners against 1,828 advancers out of 4,312 traded, with 199 stocks hitting lower circuits. The Sensex slipped 492.70 points to 77,235.46 and the Nifty 50 fell 132.75 points to 24,154.90. Information‑technology stocks bore the brunt: Infosys dropped 2.34 % to ₹1,113.20, HCL Technologies fell 2.05 % to ₹1,297.80 and Tech Mahindra slipped 1.75 %. By contrast, Mahindra & Mahindra rose 0.98 % to ₹3,423.60, while Axis Bank gained 0.77 % to ₹1,236.80.

Indian crude – MCX Crude Oil – hovered near ₹8,150, reinforcing the global oil‑price shock. Spot gold closed nearly 0.9 % higher at $4 416, though later it traded with a loss of around 0.60 % at $4 392 as crude oil rebounded on supply concerns.

Fuel‑related markets also felt the strain. Gasoline and natural gas prices each rose 1 % in the U.S., echoing the broader energy‑price uplift noted in the Goodreturns report.

Looking ahead, market participants will watch the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes on Wednesday for clues about future policy, especially in light of the three dissenting votes. The earnings outlook remains tight, with Home Depot, Baidu and several mid‑cap names reporting later in the week.

Below is a snapshot of the key numbers that moved markets on Tuesday:

Metric	Level	Change
10‑year Treasury yield	4.75 %	19‑month high
30‑year Treasury yield	5.2 %	Highest since 2007
WTI crude	$85.35 per barrel	+1 %
Brent crude	$91.42 per barrel	+1 %
Dow Jones futures	53,472	-72 points
S&P 500 futures	7,737	-31.75 points
Nasdaq 100 futures	29,865.50	-230.50 points

For deeper coverage of how oil and earnings are intersecting with market moves, see US stocks slip as oil climbs and mixed earnings weigh on market. The broader implications for global investors are also explored in Goodreturns and The Hindu BusinessLine.