[London, 6th Reuters]–The Bank of England (Bank of England) has kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.1%, the lowest level ever, and maintained its asset purchase limit of £ 895 billion ($ 1.24 trillion). Policy maintenance is as expected.
At the same time, the UK’s economic growth rate this year will be the largest increase since World War II, and it has decided to reduce the scale of weekly government bond purchases. However, he emphasized that it would not be a monetary tightening.
Bailey said the unemployment rate has fallen sharply as vaccination with the new coronavirus vaccine progresses, and a stronger recovery than previously expected is expected. However, he said that there is still a large gap compared to the economic scale without a pandemic.
“By the end of this year, we will return to the basic production levels of the end of 2019, before the new Corona,” Bailey said.
The Bank of England has raised its outlook for economic growth in the UK in 2009 from 5.0% in February to 7.25%. This is the largest increase since 1941, when Britain was re-arming. It fell by 9.8% in 20 years, and the rate of decrease was the largest in more than 300 years.
In addition to vaccination, the increase in the growth rate outlook for 2009 was less affected by the third lockdown (city blockade) measure that started in January, and public spending announced by Finance Minister Snak in March. Reflected the expansion of tax cuts and the extension of tax cuts.
The UK economy will recover to its pre-pandemic scale in the fourth quarter of 2009, one quarter ahead of previous forecasts.
On the other hand, the economic growth forecast for 2010 has been lowered from the previous 7.25% to 5.75%.
It also reduced the size of weekly government bond purchases from the current £ 4.4 billion to £ 3.4 billion. However, he said, “There is no change in the scheduled end time of the purchasing program. This decision does not change the monetary policy stance.”
EY Item economist Howard Archer said, “The Bank of China is clearly positive about the UK economy in the short term, but has great uncertainty about its long-term outlook and hastened to tighten monetary policy. It doesn’t seem to be. “
At this meeting, Chief Economist Andy Holden was the only one to vote in favor of reducing bond purchases by £ 50bn. Holden will retire after the June policy-making meeting.
The pound was almost unchanged against the dollar and the euro at 1400 GMT (11:00 pm Japan time).
The Bank of England expects the unemployment rate to rise slightly, peaking at 5.4% in the third quarter of 2009, when the employment support program expires.
Inflation is expected to exceed the target of 2% in the second half of the year, mainly due to temporary factors related to energy prices. However, he said he is paying close attention to whether there will be long-term supply constraints due to the pandemic and the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU).
In addition, based on the financial market outlook that the policy interest rate will be 0.3% two years later and 0.6% as of the second quarter of 2012, the inflation rate in 2-3 years will be slightly below the target of 2%. It was said that it would reach the standard.
Bailey said the Bank of England has not signaled interest rate directions.
[CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson: It is expected that the Bank of England will raise economic growth and inflation forecasts or there will be discussions about debt reduction]The Bank of England will announce interest rate resolution today. Significance. In view of the recent strong economic growth and the positive outlook for the second quarter, the Bank of England is expected to first increase its economic growth and inflation forecasts. The biggest problem with this forecast will be that the durability of the economic rebound is difficult to determine. Although the meeting is not expected to adjust monetary policy, but may begin to see talk about debt reduction. The recent suspension of the 10-year bond yield may give the bank a sigh of relief, but considering that the data may improve in the next few months, the Bank of England may discuss controlling the bond purchase plan by gradually reducing bond purchases. (Golden Ten Data)
The Bank of England will announce todayinterest rateThe resolution is of great significance to how policymakers view the development of the British economy in the coming months.Given the recent strong economic growth and the positive outlook for the second quarter, the Bank of England is expected to increase its economic growth first.ChangheInflation forecast, the biggest problem with this forecast will be that the durability of the economic rebound is difficult to determine.Although this meeting is not expected to be adjustedcurrencyPolicy, but may begin to see talk about debt reduction. The recent suspension of the 10-year bond yield may give the bank a sigh of relief, but considering that the data may improve in the next few months, the Bank of England may discuss controlling the bond purchase plan by gradually reducing bond purchases.
(Source: Golden Ten Data)
(Editor in charge: DF118)
Solemnly declare: The purpose of this information is to spread more information, and it has nothing to do with this stand.
[London, 4th Reuters]–The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) revision in April released by IHS Markit / CIPS was 60.9, up from 58.9 in March, 1994. It was the highest level in about 27 years since July. It has also been revised upward from the preliminary value of 60.7.
The new orders index has reached its highest level since November 2013, with two-thirds expecting production to increase a year later.
However, factors behind the rise in PMI include longer delivery times and higher raw material costs. These factors are now growth impediments.
IHS Markit pointed out that supply chain delays and raw material shortages pushed up purchasing costs and led to record increases in selling prices.
Dominic FrisbyIs a London-born financial writer and comedian who has published numerous books on investment and tax issues. “Death and taxes are inevitable,” Frisby argues. He also says that modern people live in the post-war era of slavery. In the interview, he talked about how the tax system should be in society.
Interview date: March 17, 2021
From comedians to investments
At the very beginning, I started my career as a comedian and was able to make some money. I started investing with the money I earned at that time, and from 2005 to 2006 I started to be interested in money.
I was curious about how money works, so I started a podcast dealing with topics related to money. Then, a guest who appeared in the podcast asked me to write a column. So I started writing articles about money.
I wrote three books, Life After the State, Bitcoin: The Future of Money, and Daylight Robbery.
We believe that many of our social problems are due to our money system being broken. So I am confident that the money system needs to be modified. My book dealing with this issue is “How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future”.
It is the tax system that determines the fate of society
I believe that “society is designed by taxation.” It is no exaggeration to say that the fate of society is determined by the way tax is levied.
The fate of society is how rich or poor people are, how free they are, or how crippled and subordinate they become. And I think that not only the amount of tax, but also how it is levied is very important.
For example, in the olden days workers were not taxed so much. But nowadays, taxation of workers is very important.
I think there is a deep relationship between taxation and people’s freedom. For example, people living under slavery or totalitarian nations do not have a labor force for themselves. Anarchy, on the other hand, owns 100% of their body and workforce.
With this in mind, 40-50% of our money is now taxed. So we can think of it as owning only 50-60% of ourselves and our workforce. I think the tax rate should be lowered even more.
New society and tax system created by Bitcoin
People who make a lot of money with Bitcoin are talking about the creation of new communities, countries and forts, centered on mining businesses, under a completely new legal zone. Once these new places begin to form, it is time to think about the tax system.
We will experience a change in history as new countries and societies emerge. The tax system is the deciding factor for the success of a new society. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss it.
What is the role of government
People have different opinions about the role of government, and different countries have different systems. Personally, I don’t think the government is the best way to provide welfare, education and health care. I think there is a cheaper and better way.
Furthermore, when the government provides education, it means that the government decides what people will learn and what they will not learn. I don’t think this is the right way to go.
I think the best tool for education is the internet. The Internet was developed by the development of the free market. Everyone is free to learn what they are interested in through the internet. Moreover, there are almost no regulations by the government.
I personally think that the same way of thinking is important for medical care. But some still think that the government should provide education and health care.
If taxes are abolished, there will be no government funding source. For example, there is a war in Syria now, and this war and all other wars in history are covered by taxes. Without taxes, the government would not be able to hire soldiers and wage war as a result.
Countries shaped by taxation
It is thanks to the current tax system that there is a nation in its current form. Until about 200 years ago, tax models were built around the economic infrastructure built after the Industrial Revolution. Many countries, such as Germany and Italy at the time, were formed under such a tax model.
However, as the tax system and economy change over time, I think the countries that existed will disappear with it.
Do you recommend real estate in London?
I was born and raised in London, but I am trying hard to escape from London. I haven’t escaped yet.
Real estate in London today is soaring. For example, a home with three bedrooms in a reasonable location would cost around £ 2m. But as far back as 150 years ago, such homes are at the level where working class people lived.
You can see that London has become a very expensive city. And it is our dysfunctional money system that has led to this situation.
London is a city with many opportunities. That is why everyone wants to live here. But we don’t know how much the new Corona will ultimately affect the city. Already about 700,000 people have left London. There is no longer the concentration and vibrancy of the population as it was a year ago.
We still don’t know how much London will recover from this situation. All restaurants and entertainment facilities such as theaters and live venues have been closed. London is very quiet now.
Inflation is taxed without legislation
London and other big cities are getting higher because the government is printing money and inflating it.
This is a kind of tax, so to speak. It’s a way to extract wealth from people and transfer it to the nation. Economist Milton Friedman called inflation “taxation without legislation.”
There are few things in the world that are not taxed in any way. Taxes are always deducted from the costs of services provided by the government.
We have argued that government services should be cheaper and better, but admit that taxation is inevitable.
Even in the free market, like Bitcoin, taxes are inevitable. We pay miners and mining companies a tax called commission.
Increased taxation on land, not workers
I think there are two problems with the taxes imposed by the government. The first is that workers are taxed too heavily, and the second is that land is not taxed at all.
Hong Kong is one of the most successful economies of the second half of the 20th century. Looking at Hong Kong’s GDP, taxes accounted for less than 14%.
Hong Kong did not tax workers. They received income tax only from the rich and did not impose income tax on ordinary workers at all. Hong Kong was a slum in 1945, but has since become one of the world’s leading economic cities with the highest per capita GDP.
Hong Kong also has a great education and transportation system, and people are healthy and long-lived. Hong Kong is a city that proves that it can provide all the services it needs to the general public, even with low taxes.
On the other hand, Western European countries such as France are the exact opposite of Hong Kong. The tax ratio actually accounts for nearly 60% of GDP. This number is too high. I think it is natural that we cannot grow with this.
Taxation is unavoidable, but I think it should be limited to around 10% to 15% and should be levied on land, not workers.
Unfair taxation system
I think a system that works in favor of the ultra-rich is very annoying. Looking at the ultra-rich, most of the time, they didn’t rely on their own workforce to become ultra-rich.
Aside from athletes and rock stars, in most cases the ultra-rich people have become wealthy because of the increased value of their assets, such as companies, stocks, bonds and real estate.
Such assets are almost tax free unless sold. People don’t want to sell because they have to pay taxes when they sell. In other words, assets are not taxed in the same way as income.
From this fact, middle-class workers find that they are paying more taxes on the proportion of their goods than the wealthy. I argue that such a system is very unfair.
Interview / Editing: Lina Kamada
Translation: Nen Nishihara
The articles posted on this website are for informational purposes only and are not intended to solicit cryptocurrency trading. In addition, this article is the author’s personal opinion and does not represent the official opinion of BTCBox Co., Ltd.
British consumer price inflation increased to 0.7% in March, from 0.4% in February, due to higher fuel and clothing prices.
Official figures from the British Bureau of Statistics showed that food prices have fallen below their level a year ago.
British inflation is expected to rise sharply in the coming months, due to an increase in household regulated energy bills in April, the rise in global oil prices and the comparison with prices a year ago when the lockdown measures to combat Covid caused a decline in demand.
The Bank of England predicted in February that inflation would reach 1.9% by the end of 2021, but many economists now expect it to exceed its 2% target before that.
The UK CPI increased by + 0.7% year-on-year in March compared to the + 0.8% expected.
The UK monthly CPI reaches + 0.3% in March compared to the + 0.3% expected.
The 12-month rate of the consumer price index UK CPI has reached + 0.7% in March compared to the + 0.4% seen in February and below the + 0.8% expected, as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday.
In the meantime, the core inflation gauge (excluding volatile food and energy prices) rose to 1.1% yoy last month compared to the + 0.9% registered in February, matching the forecast of + 1.1%.
On a monthly basis, figures have shown that UK consumer prices reached + 0.3% in March compared to the + 0.3% expected and rising from the + 0.1% seen the previous month.
Main points (via ONS):
The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate of the IPCH came from transportation.
Rising motor fuel and clothing prices led to the largest upward contributions to the change in the CPI 12-month inflation rate between February and March 2021.
Turkey has resisted the temptation to cut borrowing costs, for now. The new head of the central bank, Sahap Kavcioglu, on Thursday kept the main rate at 19%, while hinting at a possible relaxation.
Tayyip Erdogan’s apparent goal of easing monetary policy falters. In March, he abruptly replaced the governor, Naci Agbal, who had raised rates that month by 200 basis points, the third dismissal from the post in two years. Kavcioglu seemed more inclined to please him, having argued that high rates can cause, rather than slow down, inflation.
So far, you have avoided any rough action. But you are setting the stage for relaxation. He spoke of keeping rates above inflation. Since the annual exceeded 16% in March, you can raise them up to 300 points. Meanwhile, the promise of March to maintain a tight monetary policy “for an extended period” disappeared.
But Turkey is worse than before. The lira has lost more than a tenth of its value against the dollar since the appointment. And, having spent more than $ 100 billion in 2020 to shore it up, the bank only has $ 10 billion in net foreign exchange reserves, the lowest level since 2003, giving it little ability to fight a sell-off. Also, the Turks are avoiding it in warehouses.
That means inflation can continue to rise. The growing current account deficit, of 2.6 billion dollars in February, is another cause for concern, especially since the restrictions mean that tourism will suffer again this year, which will hurt exports. Kavcioglu is unlikely to be able to slash rates without risking rising inflation, or even a currency crisis.
Your biggest problem is a lack of credibility. Société Générale estimates that another $ 5.9 billion of capital will leave Turkish assets in the short term. The central bank’s twists and turns make a rate cut even more risky.
The authors are columnists for Reuters Breakingviews. Opinions are yours. The translation, ofCarlos Gomez Down, it is the responsibility of Five days
[London, 1st Reuters]–The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Economic Index (PMI) revised in March, released by IHS Markit / CIPS, was 58.9, the highest level in about 10 years. It has been revised upward from the preliminary value of 57.9.
In addition to the surge in orders, the number of employees has increased in anticipation of the gradual easing of lockdown (city blockade) due to the epidemic of the new coronavirus. The pace of personnel expansion was the highest since 2014.
Vaccination of the new corona is progressing in the UK and is expected to lead to an economic recovery this year.
New orders are at the second highest level in the past three years. The company has made preparations for the relaxation of lockdowns, which will resume non-essential store and outdoor customer service from April 12.
The significant increase in delivery time in the supply chain was a factor pushing up PMI by more than 4 points.
Prolonged delivery usually indicates increased economic activity, but this time due to lockdown constraints, global delivery turmoil, and increased paperwork due to Brexit, the protracted delivery is due to the prolongation of delivery. became.
Corporate optimism is the highest level in seven years. Production of consumer goods turned to increase.
Exports were still sluggish, but increased due to recovery in demand in Europe, Asia and the United States.
The pace of increase in input prices is the highest level in 50 months. The pace of increase in selling prices has been the highest since January 2017.
Rob Dobson, director of IHS Markit, said, “Prolonged concerns about inflation and supply chains as economic activity resumes in the future are likely to curb the pace of expansion.”
South African central bank chief Lesetja Kganyago owes Tayyip Erdogan one. By firing his head of monetary policy, the Turkish president caused a currency and bond crash. It’s a dramatic reminder to Kganyago’s political bosses of what could go wrong if they started meddling in rate politics.
The Turkish economy is twice that of South Africa and has a more developed manufacturing sector. They coincide in the high volume of trading of their currencies and in their great needs for external financing, which makes them vulnerable to faltering in investor confidence. When one receives a blow, the other suffers a bruise. For example, in August 2018, when the rand fell 15% in two days in reaction to another Erdogan-inspired crash in the lira.
But the ties have been loosened. Last Monday, the rand even won as the lira plummeted. The main reason is inflation. Erdogan’s view that high rates cause, rather than prevent, price rises contrasts with Pretoria’s orthodox view and its adherence to a 3% -6% target. And while the Turkish leader has gone through four central bank heads in two years, Kganyago is only the fourth in South Africa since apartheid ended in 1994.
South Africa has reaped the benefits of falling inflation. From just 3.2% in January, it allows Kganyago to maintain a flexible policy to boost the recovery, even though it may not appeal to return-hungry foreign investors who own a third of the country’s debt. Few emerging can afford it.
It does not mean that he is safe. Its economy is in the doldrums, this year’s deficit will be 14% of GDP and the agencies have reduced their credit to garbage. Its yield curve also points to long-term concerns about the government’s ability to pay: in 2024, debt service costs will consume 16% of public spending. Politicians also attack the central bank when it suits them. Thanks to Erdogan, Kganyago’s reply will be even stronger.
The authors are columnists for Reuters Breakingviews. Opinions are yours. The translation, ofCarlos Gomez Down, it is the responsibility of Five days
[London, 24th Reuters]–The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate in February announced by the British Bureau of Statistics (ONS) was 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.7% last month.
The market forecast compiled by Reuters was 0.8%.
Clothing prices have fallen the most since 2009 year-on-year, and used car prices have also fallen.
Jonathan Aso of ONS said, “The epidemic of the new coronavirus has caused confusion in the usual seasonal pattern. Clothing prices rise in February every year, but this year the price decline in clothing is inflation in February. It contributed to the mitigation. “
After the statistics were released, the pound fell slightly against the US dollar.
Prices for clothing and shoes in February fell for the first time since 2007 from the previous month. It decreased by 5.7% from the previous year, the largest decrease since November 2009. The background is a wide range of price drops due to the epidemic of the new corona.
The Bank of England (Bank of England) expects inflation to rise sharply towards its target of 2% in the first half of this year. It is cited because of high oil prices, rising energy prices for households, and other temporary factors.
The core CPI increase rate in February, excluding food and energy, which fluctuates greatly, was 0.9% year-on-year, down from 1.4% in the previous month.
The February Producer Price Index (PPI), announced by ONS at the same time, rose 2.6% year-on-year. PPI is a leading indicator of CPI.
Most economists anticipate inflation.
ING economist James Smith said, “The overall inflation index will skyrocket after April. Energy prices are a factor. Gasoline prices are comparable to the same month last year as before the new Corona. In addition, it will be possible to raise the price by 9% in connection with the maximum price regulation of household energy. “
However, there are many views that the central bank will not start raising interest rates even if inflation progresses and slightly exceeds the target of 2%.
In the UK, unemployment is expected to increase by the end of the year due to the expiration of the government’s employment support measures, which is expected to put downward pressure on wages and prices in the next 1-2 years.