Kazakhstan's goods exports rise 27.1% to $48.5B in H1 2026 - Trend

Kazakhstan's foreign trade landscape is undergoing a notable transformation as strong commodity shipments and expanding processing capacities drive economic gains. According to official figures released by the Ministry of National Economy citing the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Central Asian republic's goods exports under balance-of-payments statistics increased by 27.1% year-on-year to $48.5 billion in the first half of 2026, as reported by Trend on 17 October 2026. This broad-based upward trajectory saw positive growth recorded across more than 80% of commodity categories, underpinned by rising demand for agricultural products, ores, and refined metals.

The upward momentum continued through the summer months. Data from the JSC "QazTrade Trade Policy Development Center" showed that total foreign trade turnover reached $103 billion in the first eight months of 2026. Exports accounted for $60.4 billion of this total, while imports stood at $42.6 billion, pushing the country's positive trade balance to $17.8 billion—an increase of approximately 82% compared to the previous year. The Ministry of National Economy noted that overall exports for January through July 2026 rose by 15.8% year-on-year to reach $50.9 billion, bringing the trade surplus to $14 billion.

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Mineral resources and traditional commodities continued to anchor the export ledger. According to the Ministry's data from the country's Bureau of National Statistics, exports of copper and copper cathodes increased by 58%, while shipments of copper ores and concentrates rose by 42.9%. Uranium exports grew by 15.1%, and wheat exports increased by 28.2% over the initial six-month period. More dramatically, sulfur exports rose 2.9-fold, and silver exports increased 2.4-fold. In a broader eight-month breakdown provided by QazTrade, copper and copper cathodes climbed by 55.7% to $3.9 billion, and uranium shipments grew by 26.9% to total $3.1 billion.

At the same time, value-added agricultural sectors posted stellar gains that outpaced traditional resource exports. Sunflower oil exports grew by 48.5% during the first eight months, reaching $672.8 million, with physical volumes increasing by 35.9% to 611,400 tons, according to the Agriculture Ministry reported by Qazinform. Grain sectors performed strongly as well; wheat exports rose 26.5% to $1.25 billion, with shipments surpassing 5.5 million tons. Wheat and wheat-rye flour exports climbed 36% to $400 million, and flaxseed exports recorded exponential growth, increasing 2.3-fold in value to $387.8 million and 2.5-fold in volume to 780,800 tons.

Industry stakeholders are actively capitalizing on this momentum by shifting focus toward domestic processing. According to Apk Inform, Kazakhstan plans to increase exports of vegetable oils and fats to $1.5 billion by 2028, representing a 60% jump over current levels. Yadykar Ibragimov, Chairman of the National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA), noted that refining capacity is projected to increase 2.1-fold to exceed 1 million tons per year between 2026 and 2028.

Geographical trade directions continue to reflect strong regional ties alongside expanding global reach. During the first eight months of the year, China remained Kazakhstan's top trading partner with total turnover reaching $23.3 billion, followed closely by Russia at $18.3 billion and Italy at $11.8 billion, which together accounted for over half of the republic's foreign trade. In terms of specific export destinations, Italy received $10.9 billion in goods, making it the largest export market, while China purchased $10.7 billion. Meanwhile, Russia remained the principal supplier of imported goods, delivering $13.2 billion worth of products.

Looking ahead, policymakers and agricultural processors will monitor the execution of the export roadmap for oil and fat products, alongside ongoing plant expansions and logistics optimization across key border crossings such as Dostyk-Alashankou. Stakeholders will also track how international market conditions and geopolitical shifts impact regional flaxseed and vegetable oil deliveries as processing facilities continue to scale up production toward upcoming multi-year targets.