James Talarico and Ken Paxton tie in deadlocked Texas Senate race

The high-stakes United States Senate race in Texas is officially deadlocked, according to a recent Fox News Poll, tightening the political battle as Election Day approaches. Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton are running neck-and-neck, each capturing 49 percent of support among likely voters in the state, with one percent remaining undecided. This statistical dead heat marks a shift from the network's September survey, which previously recorded Talarico leading with 51 percent to Paxton's 49 percent.

The race to replace Senator John Cornyn — who lost the Republican primary to the President Trump-backed Paxton — has tested historic voting patterns in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than thirty years. As reported by FOX 7 Austin, the poll surveyed 1,398 likely Texas voters and carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. While Paxton has fallen short of previous margins secured by Trump in the Lone Star State, he has successfully strengthened his base by reclaiming Ground among men, women, rural voters, suburban women, and voters who originally backed Cornyn in the primary cycle.

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Despite the deadlocked numbers, stark contrasts remain in how voters perceive the two contenders. Public perception heavily favors Talarico on personal image, where he holds a net-positive rating of one point, split evenly at 49 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable. Conversely, Paxton’s favorability ratings remain underwater by 17 points, sitting at 41 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable. Yet, among double-haters, voters expressing negative views toward both candidates, Paxton holds a significant 50-point advantage. Voters also harbor competing policy anxieties: roughly half of respondents express concern that Talarico’s positions are overly liberal, while an equal share worries that Paxton remains too closely aligned with Trump.

Adding a dramatic twist to the campaign trail, high-profile Texas attorney and major political donor Thomas J. Henry announced his support for Talarico, as detailed by Ground. Henry, widely recognized across Texas through extensive television advertisements and billboards, posted a video to social media reversing his previous financial and political support of Paxton to endorse the Democratic challenger instead.

Voter demographics reveal deeply entrenched dividing lines across the state. Talarico commands massive leads among Black voters, urban residents, younger voters under the age of 30, and college-educated women. He also commands a strong 30-point advantage among Hispanic voters, a crucial shift from prior election cycles. On the other side, Paxton’s strongest coalitions consist of White evangelical Christians, White men lacking a college degree, rural residents, and voters aged 65 and older. Party loyalty also plays a definitive role, with 98 percent of Democrats backing Talarico compared to 90 percent of Republicans supporting Paxton, alongside nearly three in ten non-MAGA Republicans crossing party lines to vote for the Democratic state representative.

Economic discontent runs high among the electorate, influencing broader midterm sentiment. More than twice as many voters report feeling financially worse off compared to two years ago, and those struggling economically back Talarico by a massive 45-point margin. Meanwhile, voters who report being better off or holding steady financially favor Paxton. Beyond the Senate contest, incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott maintains a five-point lead over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in the gubernatorial race, benefiting from notable ticket-splitting among Talarico supporters who plan to cross party lines to back Abbott.

As the political landscape fluctuates nationally, with Yahoo News noting broader Democratic momentum in congressional polls, Texas remains a central battleground.

What to Watch Next

• Early voting runs through October 30, 2026.
• Election Day takes place on November 3, 2026, which will settle the deadlocked Senate contest and determine whether historical voting streaks in Texas hold firm.