John Swinney claims Scottish independence push has turned a corner

First Minister John Swinney has claimed that the campaign for Scottish independence has turned a corner, pointing to recent political developments and cross-nation alignments. Speaking ahead of his party’s conference in Aberdeen, the SNP leader highlighted comments made in the House of Commons by Prime Minister Andy Burnham suggesting that Scotland could hold another vote on the issue if the public desired it. Mr Swinney also referenced an agreement reached between pro-independence leaders in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland as evidence that the constitutional debate has shifted forward.

Those remarks immediately sparked controversy. Within hours of his comments in Parliament, Mr Burnham walked back his position, reaffirming that Scottish independence remains off limits and refusing to alter his stance due to the Cardiff Agreement. Despite Downing Street’s rejection, Mr Swinney defended his interpretation during an interview with the Press Association at Bute House in Edinburgh. He maintained that the Prime Minister's initial remarks in the House of Commons reflected a broader realization that Westminster and Whitehall are not working, while arguing that voters should be able to take a Prime Minister at their word.

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The First Minister further asserted that the totality of polling backs Scottish independence, pointing to the SNP securing a fifth term in office as proof that his party remains in the lead of political debate. That claim was challenged by Ipsos Scotland managing director Emily Gray. According to Ms Gray, public opinion remains split squarely down the middle, with no settled will in favor of either separation or staying in the union. Polling indicates that a referendum held tomorrow would be too close to call within the margin of error.

The debate comes against the backdrop of mounting public dissatisfaction captured in the September release of the Scotland Political Pulse series by Ipsos. While the SNP government continues to govern following an election where millions of voters opted out and the party secured a reduced vote share, public sentiment has soured. The poll revealed that 51% of surveyed residents believe Scotland is heading in the wrong direction under the SNP, rising from 45% in May. Conversely, only 20% feel the country is on the right path, down from 22% earlier in the year. Meanwhile, public appetite for cooperation between Holyrood and the UK Government rose from 30% under the previous administration of Sir Keir Starmer to 42% following Mr Burnham's arrival in Downing Street.

Opposition politicians strongly condemned the First Minister's remarks ahead of the gathering in Aberdeen, which sits at the centre of Britain’s oil and gas industry and serves as a key political battleground. Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton accused Mr Swinney of being disconnected from public priorities.

"John Swinney is living in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks Scotland has suddenly swung behind independence. There is no settled majority for breaking up the UK, and he should stop pretending otherwise."

Rachael Hamilton, Scottish Conservative deputy leader, via Scottish Daily Express

Ms Hamilton argued that the First Minister's focus should instead remain on domestic crises, including fixing the NHS, growing the economy, easing cost-of-living pressures, and addressing national security concerns, rather than pursuing a divisive constitutional circus. Internal friction has also surfaced within the pro-independence movement, as Mr Swinney faced criticism over his decision to invite Scottish Greens co-leader Gillian Mackay to address the conference.

As the conference kicks off in Aberdeen, the party faces the challenge of addressing deepening voter skepticism about the direction of the country while maintaining momentum for a second referendum. While Ipsos data shows that just under half of the Scottish public thinks there should be another vote within five years, the lack of a settled majority leaves the timeline for any future ballot entirely unresolved.