CXMT could rally over 1,200% as Nomura sees market-share gain

The surge has sparked a clash of analyst forecasts: Nomura Holdings sees a trajectory that could add more than 1,200 % to the IPO price, while Morningstar’s Jing Jie Yu warns that technology constraints could keep valuations muted.

How the rally unfolded

On 27 July 2026 CXMT listed at an offer price of 8.66 yuan per share. Within hours the price spiked to a peak of 55.03 yuan, a rise of roughly 535 % that pushed the company to become the largest‑valued mainland‑listed firm by market capitalisation. The Korean press report from Newspim confirms the same figures, noting the jump “최대 535 % 급등해 55.03위안을 기록했다.” The debut also marked the first trade for the firm formerly known as ChangXin Memory Technologies.

Nomura analyst Donnie Teng assigns a buy rating and a 116 yuan target, arguing that the firm’s momentum will be buoyed by a tightening global memory supply. Teng also links the outlook to “agentic AI,” which he says will lift worldwide memory usage more than sevenfold by 2030.

"Strong demand for agentic AI will drive a more than sevenfold increase in global memory usage" by 2030,

Donnie Teng, analyst, via Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance

Teng projects CXMT’s DRAM output to expand at an annual rate of 40 % to 45 % through 2030, which would lift its global DRAM share from about 10 % now to 18 % by the close of 2028. The same growth assumptions appear in the Korean translation, which states the analyst foresees “연 40%~45% 성장” and a rise in market share “현재 약 10%에서 2028년 말까지 18%로 확대될 것으로 내다봤다.”

Morningstar’s counterpoint

Morningstar’s Jing Jie Yu offers a starkly lower valuation. In a note released on the Friday before the IPO, Yu places the fair‑value estimate at 14.90 yuan per share — well beneath both Nomura’s target and the market price on the debut day.

Yu argues that CXMT’s lack of access to extreme ultraviolet lithography will make further DRAM performance improvements increasingly difficult. Without EUV, conventional DRAM advancement will become increasingly difficult for the firm, according to Yu.

Valuation metrics and the analyst split

Nomura applies a price‑to‑earnings multiple of 20 times to CXMT on the company's expected earnings-per-share for fiscal year 2028, a level that would double the valuation of its major US competitor Micron Technology. Yu, by contrast, emphasizes that CXMT’s multiples remain low because of its perceived technology lag.

The divergence illustrates a broader debate about how much weight to assign to market‑share momentum versus technological risk. Both analysts agree that CXMT is emerging as a threat to global rivals such as Samsung Electronics Co. And SK Hynix Inc., as well as Micron Technology Inc. In the US, but they differ sharply on whether that threat will immediately translate into premium pricing.

Context from the source pool

The Bloomberg story that fed both Yahoo Finance and NewsPim notes that CXMT’s share price made the company China's largest listed firm onshore. The Korean article adds that the piece was originally distributed by GAM Global Asset Management and later translated, underscoring the international interest in the stock’s debut.

Both outlets repeat the same core data: the 8.66 yuan IPO price, the 55.03 yuan first‑day high, the 535 % jump, the 116 yuan Nomura target, the 14.90 yuan Morningstar fair value, the 40 % to 45 % annual output growth, the 10 % to 18 % market‑share trajectory, and the EUV‑related technology concern.

What to monitor going forward

• Fiscal 2028 expected earnings-per-share – the metrics that will test Nomura’s 20-times P/E assumption.
• Share‑price movements of global DRAM leaders as they respond to a potential shift in market share toward CXMT.

Where the story may lead

With the IPO price now behind it, the market will watch whether CXMT can sustain the rapid output growth Teng predicts and whether it can close the EUV gap that Yu flags as a valuation drag. If the firm locks in a supply‑chain solution for EUV or overcomes its technology constraints, the upside envisioned by Nomura could move from headline to reality. Conversely, if technology constraints persist, the discount indicated by Morningstar may prove more durable.

In the weeks ahead, analysts will parse quarterly reports, track announcements from equipment makers, and gauge how the broader AI‑driven memory demand materialises. The tug‑of‑war between market‑share optimism and technology caution will shape not only CXMT’s share trajectory but also the competitive dynamics of the entire global DRAM market.