NHS Wales misses waiting lists targets ahead of Senedd election

As Wales prepares for a Senedd election, the NHS in Wales is under intense scrutiny after missing three primary targets set to reduce patient waiting times. While Welsh Government ministers highlight a record-breaking period of reductions in the total number of people on waiting lists, opposition figures and medical representative bodies argue the system remains in crisis.

Provisional data for March shows approximately 666,700 people waiting for treatment. Although this figure is the lowest since December 2021, it remains above the goal established by Health Secretary Jeremy Miles, who sought to reach 600,000 by the spring. Furthermore, the ambition to eliminate all waits of two years or more was not achieved, with 2,600 people waiting longer than that duration. The target to ensure no patient waits more than eight weeks for diagnostic tests also remained unmet, with nearly 38,500 people recorded in that category as of February.

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A Divergence of Perspectives

The Welsh Government has framed the latest statistics as validation of its current strategy. Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan noted that waiting lists have fallen for nine consecutive months, describing the trend as the biggest sustained drop on record. Government officials attribute these results to an additional £120 million in funding, which has facilitated 187,000 extra outpatient appointments and 37,000 cataract operations. According to Health Secretary Jeremy Miles, the average wait for treatment is now 16.7 weeks, down from 23 weeks when she became first minister.

Opposition parties, however, dispute the interpretation of these figures. Mabon ap Gwynfor, speaking for Plaid Cymru, criticised the government for moving the goalposts and still missing them, characterising the situation as Labour’s failing record. Peter Fox, the Welsh Conservative shadow cabinet secretary for health and social care, declared that the NHS remains broken. He pointed specifically to worsening cancer waiting times as evidence of systemic failure.

Emergency Care and Cancer Targets

Performance in urgent and emergency care has also struggled. The target for cancer treatment—requiring 75% of patients to begin treatment within 62 days of a cancer suspicion—remained at 57% in February. Emergency departments are experiencing significant pressure, with the Royal College of Emergency Medicine reporting that 10,931 patients waited more than 12 hours in A&E during March, the highest figure on record for that month.

Ambulance response times for the most urgent "red" category calls were not met. While the service met its target range for cardiac and respiratory arrests, the median response time for all red calls was eight minutes 54 seconds. Government officials emphasised the need for a continued focus on patient flow and discharge capacity, noting that nearly 1,400 patients remained in hospital beds in March despite being medically cleared for discharge.

Future Proposals

Political parties have presented contrasting plans ahead of the Senedd election:

• Welsh Conservatives: The party has pledged to declare a "health emergency" and establish a Cancer Treatments Fund to improve access to care.
• Welsh Liberal Democrats: Leader Jane Dodds has proposed a 1p income tax increase to fund social care, aiming to free up hospital beds and reduce system pressure.
• Plaid Cymru: The party has committed to delivering 10 new surgical hubs focused on treating conditions with the highest waiting times.

As the election approaches, debate continues regarding the methodology of reporting waiting lists. The government intends to continue its focus on capacity, including weekend and evening appointments, to address the remaining backlog.