More than half think Scotland heading in wrong direction, poll finds

More than half of people in Scotland believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, according to new polling data that presents a fresh challenge for First Minister John Swinney ahead of his party's conference in Aberdeen.

Research conducted by pollsters Ipsos revealed that 51% of those surveyed in September feel Scotland is moving on the wrong path. That figure represents an increase from 45% in May, while only 20% believe the country is heading in the right direction, down slightly from 22% in May.

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Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos Scotland, told the Press Association that the findings highlight a clear downward trend in public sentiment regarding the country's direction following the Holyrood election.

"In terms of John Swinney’s challenges ahead of the conference, a big thing is that half of the Scottish public say that Scotland is headed in the wrong direction."

Emily Gray, Managing Director, Ipsos Scotland, via Press Association

Gray noted that the rising dissatisfaction will be a concern for the First Minister as he looks to demonstrate to the public and party members that the SNP can deliver tangible results on critical public issues such as the economy, inflation, and the NHS. She suggested that polling conducted in May may have benefited from a post-election bounce following the SNP returning to power, whereas the latest survey captures a mounting public unease.

Meanwhile, SNP depute leader Keith Brown defended the government's record and insisted that ministers remain focused on the issues affecting households across the country.

"Times are really tough for people at the moment with the cost of living soaring across the UK. That’s why the SNP Government is laser-focused on the issues that matter – delivering the best cost-of-living support for households anywhere in the UK and improving our NHS by opening GP walk-in clinics, reducing waiting times and delivering more appointments."

Keith Brown, SNP Depute Leader, via STV

Brown also called on the UK Government to step up and utilize the UK Budget to provide a major financial support package for families grappling with high household bills.

Despite the growing pessimism regarding the nation's overall trajectory, the Ipsos polling uncovered a notable shift in public appetite for intergovernmental cooperation. The data reveals an increase in the number of Scots who would welcome closer collaboration between the Holyrood administration and the UK Government in Westminster.

In May, when Sir Keir Starmer held office as prime minister, 30% of people in Scotland supported the idea of ministers from the Scottish and UK governments working closely together. By September, following a change in leadership at Downing Street with Andy Burnham in charge at No 10, that figure climbed to 42%, while only 24% stated they would be unhappy with such collaboration.

Gray observed that the Scottish public feels significantly warmer toward relations between the two governments under Burnham compared to the previous administration. She highlighted that voters across all political stripes now view intergovernmental cooperation more positively than negatively.

The polling breaks down these attitudes across party lines, showing that two-thirds, or 66%, of Scottish Labour voters are happy for the two administrations to work closely together. Crucially, on-balance support was also found among voters from other parties, with 38% of SNP voters and 37% of Reform UK voters backing greater collaboration between Holyrood and Westminster.

Positive attitudes extended toward other devolved administrations as well, following a joint declaration signed in Cardiff on 14 September by the leaders of the governing parties of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Public approval for the Scottish Government working closely with the Plaid Cymru-led Welsh Government rose three points from May to reach 41%, with 19% opposed. Meanwhile, sentiment regarding the Northern Ireland Executive led by Sinn Féin showed 34% of Scots would be happy with close cooperation, up from 29% in May, though 27% remained opposed.

The debate over the country's direction and intergovernmental ties is expected to heavily influence discussions as the SNP conference gets under way in Aberdeen later this week.