US Midterms 2026: Democrats Win Congress, Impacting Mauritius Ties

Democrats secured control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the US midterm elections on 3rd November, winning races across several states, including traditional Republican strongholds. The incoming Congress will take office in January 2027, placing both chambers under opposition control for the remaining two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. Texas illustrated the scale of the Democratic breakthrough. James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the US Senate race, while Gina Hinojosa defeated Greg Abbott in the gubernatorial election, ending the party’s decades-long drought in statewide contests. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers, retaining an open Senate seat for his party and becoming the first Muslim American elected to the chamber. With Democratic Senate gains also recorded in Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina, the results establish a changed political landscape in Washington.

For Mauritius, they raise questions about the direction of bilateral relations, from diplomacy and the future of Chagos to trade and investment. Assad Bhuglah describes the outcome of the 3rd November elections as “an important turning point in American politics”, with Democratic control of both congressional chambers representing a significant setback for President Donald Trump. Yet he cautions against drawing an immediate connection between the election result and a different approach towards Mauritius. Vijay Makhan makes a similar distinction between increased scrutiny of the administration and a transfer of responsibility for foreign policy. “Clearly the result is a disavowal of President Trump’s policies, not only on local issues but with regard to his foreign policy dealings as well, especially the war on Iran. Democrats have won control of both chambers, although the final Senate numbers are still being settled.”

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Economist Manisha Dookhony points out that trade policy and tariff authorities remain anchored primarily in the White House, meaning Mauritian exporters cannot rely on a newly empowered Democratic Congress to instantly remove trade uncertainties or halt protectionist measures. According to the figures she cites, the United States accounted for about 10.1% of Mauritius’ total exports in 2024. Mauritian-made goods shipped there were worth nearly Rs 6.8 billion, with research primates, textiles and processed seafood among the activities concerned. On market access, he identifies the extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, until 31 December 2028 as a reassuring development. He notes that the legislation was signed by Trump on 2 September 2026, following congressional approval, and that Mauritius remains an eligible beneficiary qualifying for its textile and apparel provisions.

Citing figures illustrating that shock, she says Brent crude rose from around USD 72 to USD 111 a barrel, while Mauritius’ petroleum import bill increased by 82% in March. She also points to a reduced Bank of Mauritius growth forecast of 2.8% and projected headline inflation averaging around 5.5%, above the central bank’s 2–5% target.

As President Trump’s war in Iran continues to drive up fuel costs for families, farmers, and small businesses across the country, Governor Gavin Newsom today suspended California’s seasonal summer-blend gasoline requirement for the remainder of the season and directed state agencies to take steps to allow winter-blend gasoline to be manufactured, imported, distributed, and sold in California immediately.

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Vijay Makhan advocates maintaining direct engagement with the administration while developing relationships with members of Congress involved in foreign affairs, defence and the Indian Ocean.