Strait of Hormuz remains open as US and Iran exchange missile strikes

The Strait of Hormuz remained a point of global instability, as the United States and Iran exchanged intense missile and drone strikes. Despite a declaration from Tehran that the strategic waterway was closed, maritime advisory groups reported that vessel traffic continued to utilize the southern route near Oman, effectively challenging the attempted blockade.

The current cycle of violence escalated following an attack on the container ship GFS Galaxy, which left the vessel ablaze. While Omani authorities conducted search and rescue operations, one crew member remains missing. In response to the attack, the United States military carried out strikes against Iranian missile and air defense systems, as well as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) small boats positioned near the waterway. U.S. Central Command confirmed that American forces had struck more than 300 targets in Iran at the direction of President Donald Trump.

Tehran retaliated with a series of strikes across the region. According to Iranian state media, these operations targeted U.S. Facilities in Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman, including an aircraft maintenance center at the Al Udeid Air Base and logistics infrastructure at the Port of Duqm. The Iranian Navy also reported that missiles targeted Qeshm Island. Additionally, Kuwait’s Defence Ministry reported that three northern border posts and an offshore oil platform were struck, resulting in one worker suffering injuries. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates reported intercepting Iranian drones and missiles, and sirens were reported in Bahrain. In Oman, the Foreign Ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador to lodge a formal protest regarding attacks on its territory.

Diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation have struggled to gain momentum. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged both nations to cease the fighting and return to negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi traveled to Oman to meet with his counterpart, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, to exchange views on mechanisms for the safe passage of ships. Although Omani state media indicated that negotiators would continue discussions at technical and political levels, the outcome of these talks remains uncertain. The United States is demanding that Iran publicly state it will stop attacks on ships in the strait — and that all lanes will be open with no tolls through the waterway.

The military confrontation follows the dissolution of a ceasefire agreement. President Donald Trump, citing potential threats to his safety, previously ordered the military to be prepared to launch thousands of missiles if Iran targeted him. Tensions were further compounded by a written statement from the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who pledged vengeance for the death of his predecessor, who was killed on February 28.

Global markets have responded to the ongoing volatility. The uncertainty surrounding the Strait, which historically handled approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, has contributed to elevated energy prices. Swaps traders have increased pricing for potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate tightening as they await upcoming inflation reports and Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.

As the situation develops, market participants are monitoring live vessel traffic updates for any shifts in the waterway's status. Iranian authorities maintain that the strait is strategically significant, while the U.S. Remains committed to enforcing freedom of navigation.