Reform’s mayoral hopeful: I’ll tear down Manchester’s one-party state

The campaign to lead the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) is intensifying as parties prepare for the 30 July by-election. The contest was necessitated after the former mayor, who held the office since 2017, vacated his position following his election to Parliament on 19 June. Reform UK has selected Sian Astley, a property developer and television personality, to contest the seat. Astley, who currently serves as a councillor for Baguley after winning a seat previously held by Labour for 50 years, has framed her campaign as a direct challenge to what she terms a one-party state in the region.

Astley, who resides in Fallowfield and is a Manchester University graduate, has indicated that she intends to approach the mayoralty with a fixer mentality, drawing on her career in property renovation and design.

"If you are doing up a house, you would never just go in and put wallpaper on it, or put up a pair of curtains. You would look at the house and you would assess its problems. If you need to go backwards a little bit and start revealing and start stripping back before you move forward, then that’s what you do to achieve the best possible outcome."

Media additions

Sian Astley, Reform UK mayoral candidate, via AOL

A primary pledge of her campaign is to open up the books on contracts awarded during the tenure of the previous administration. Furthermore, she has identified the grooming gangs scandal as an urgent priority for her first days in office, stating that she intends to examine redacted documents and internal communications. Her platform also includes a focus on housing, specifically regarding the reduction of houses of multiple occupancy (HMOs) that accommodate asylum seekers. She argues that the region has accepted a disproportionate number of asylum seekers compared to other parts of the country and that local infrastructure, such as access to medical services, is insufficient to support further intake.

The electoral challenge for Reform UK is compounded by the use of the supplementary vote system, which allows voters to indicate both a first and second preference. According to research conducted by Focaldata for Hope Not Hate in June, Labour is expected to lead with 33.2% of first preference support, followed by Reform at 30.1%, the Greens at 12.5%, and the Liberal Democrats at 7.6%.

Astley’s background as a professional landlord has become a point of public discussion. As an owner of 17 rental units in south Manchester, she has previously voiced opposition to tax policies targeting the property sector. She has stated that landlords are often not viewed as working people by the political establishment despite their contributions to the housing sector. her past commentary on the European Union has surfaced; while she supported leaving in the 2016 referendum, she previously wrote in 2019 that the departure would likely exacerbate the existing shortage of skilled tradespeople in the United Kingdom.

The campaign follows a series of mixed results for Reform UK in the region, including a victory in Baguley and losses in Gorton, Denton, and Makerfield. As the 30 July vote approaches, the defining tension remains the economic divide between the high levels of investment seen in central Manchester and the concerns regarding the decline of outer boroughs and towns.

Election Context and Candidates

• Election Date: 30 July.
• Voting System: Supplementary Vote (First and Second preferences).
• Candidates: Sian Astley (Reform UK), Bev Craig (Labour), Geraldine Coggins (Green), Phil Eckersley (Conservative), and Richard Kilpatrick (Liberal Democrat).
• Vacancy: The by-election follows the resignation of the incumbent on 19 June.

The remaining weeks are expected to focus on whether Astley can successfully bridge the gap between her profile as a local councillor and the requirements of the regional mayoralty. While she maintains that the regional leadership has been stagnant due to an absence of rigorous internal criticism, the outcome remains uncertain as the parties compete to consolidate support within the new electoral framework.